April appears to be the month for elections. The beginning of the month, on April 05, saw polls for the president and provincial councils taking place in 34 provinces in Afghanistan. The country's third presidential election now brings to an end 13 years of continuous rule by Karzai, who has held power since the Taliban were ousted in 2001. The constitution has barred Karzai from seeking another term. The turnout was about seven million out of twelve million eligible voters. Two-thirds of them were men and the rest women - a significant step forward.
We have also seen the polling process start in a massive way in India and also in Indonesia. Earlier, in the past few weeks before April, we had our own upazila polls in five phases. Analysts have noted that more than one billion eligible voters would have participated in these countries and expressed their preference. The total number would be more than the European Union and North America taken together. This has been democracy at work.
In the case of Afghanistan, the concerned authorities had to mount their biggest security operation since the fall of the Taliban in 2001. Nearly 400,000 Afghan troops, police and para-militia were assisted in this regard by the nearly 55,000 international troops still stationed in the country. Special care was taken to face up to Taliban intimidation that had vowed to disrupt the vote and had carried out a string of attacks leading up to the exercise. All this was done to ensure that this high-stake opportunity could guarantee some political stability in the country ahead of the departure of international forces from Afghanistan on the completion of their mission in December, 2014.
In this context, the Afghan government had to balance security against access. Their effort was driven through the consciousness that necessary measures were required so that polling stations in remote areas did not end up being 'ghost stations' where fraud could take place with impunity as had happened earlier during the last tainted presidential elections in 2004 and 2009. This became a necessity when the Afghan Election Commission realised that eight million surplus voting cards had been issued as there was no reliable estimate of the number of Afghan adults. To stop possible irregularity they took two measures - use of indelible deep blue ink to make it difficult to vote twice as well as using a barcode system for each designated ballot. It was also decided that one copy each of the count would be posted outside each polling centre (so that local people can monitor fraud), while another would be sent to Kabul.
At the same time a paradigm had to be created whereby willing voters did not feel that there was too much security which limited their chances to participate. In this context, the BBC reported that social media and the mobile phone (ten times as many users compared to 2009) played a significant role not only in generating awareness about the election but also about the evolving situation. The local civil society and the Afghan media also assisted local election monitoring despite Taliban threats. It would however be important to note here that, barring some urban areas, there was general absence in in-depth pro-active engagement between the voters and the candidates and also in the articulation of the position of candidates on different issues.
The above steps to prevent cheating at the polls led the Afghan authorities (according to Reuters) receiving more than 3,000 reports of violations. These included complaints regarding shortage of ballot papers and ballot boxes in some centres. Supporters of presidential candidates Abdullah and Rasoul were particularly vocal about this. Davood Moradian, Director of the Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies, has however stated that such criticism was really directed towards the candidates essentially laying down the groundwork for later bargaining after the preliminary results are announced.
It has, nevertheless, been decided that just about half of the 3,103 registered complaints will be investigated by the Complaints Commission. Apparently, the rest of the complaints were received mostly over the telephone and do not have supporting evidence. It may be recalled that during 2009 election, more than 2,000 complaints were investigated and about a million votes scrapped. Out of the total number, this time, presidential aspirants face 228 complaints.
It would pertinent at this stage to point out that if none of the eight presidential candidates secure more than 50 per cent of the vote, then, after the first-round preliminary results are announced on April 24, a run-off will take place on May 28 between the two front-running candidates. At this point of time former foreign minister (a medical doctor) Abdullah Abdullah, Zalmay Rassoul and former finance minister Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai are regarded as favorites to succeed Karzai. It is generally believed that there will be no further delay in convening the second round as any postponement could clash with the beginning of the month of Ramadan.
There has been continuing international interest in the Afghan election as well as the possible impact that it might have on security partnership between that country and the West - particularly, NATO and the United States. The last 13 years of war in Afghanistan has seen more than 2,000 US and NATO casualties and the expenditure of more than US$ 100 billion for the United States. This international anxiety stems from concerns that the fragile stability in Afghanistan does not deteriorate into political fragmentation. It is believed that if this happens, then the civil war that has plagued that country for a few decades would return. Such an equation would be that much more alarming given the future scenario where there could not only be a sharp decline in international aid but also disappearance of political support within the United States.
Both the United States Administration and the NATO are worried that until now, due to outgoing President Karzai's inflexibility, no agreement has been signed with Afghanistan that would permit US troops to remain in that country from 2015. This has created intense frustration within the Obama Administration. It has, however, been reported that Abdullah, Rassoul and Ghani, the three front runners, are more moderate in this regard and that the United States might succeed in signing an agreement with anyone of them.
Nevertheless, Ronald Neumann, former US Ambassador to Afghanistan, has quite correctly pointed out that the principal objective of the United States at this point of time should be not to just ensure a faultless election. There should be greater emphasis on a peaceful transfer of power that is widely accepted by the Afghans to be legitimate. He has also urged the United States "not to instantly react to all the cries and yells of fraud" but to recognise that the polls results will probably lead to a process of negotiation over a new government that could take weeks or months.
One would tend to agree with this analysis. It would also be logical that after this phase is over, necessary agreement would also be reached for continuation of a limited presence of international troops in Afghanistan after 2014 as part of strategic requirement. This would be required for further training and for building a more functional armed forces which will be able to tackle the Taliban factor. Such continuing cooperation would enable officials from law and order agencies being able to confront certain social issues that have increased over the past few years in Afghanistan according to civil society activists - 'insecurity, unemployment and the number of drug addicts'.
General Joseph Dunford, the commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan, who has already overseen NATO's forces being cut from 100,000 when he arrived just a year ago to fewer than 50,000, believes that a future strategic deal would be signed between Afghanistan and the United States. He has, however, warned of risks becoming greater if there is further delay.
One hopes that the emerging Afghan leadership will pay heed to such concerns.
Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador, is specialised in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance. mzamir@dhaka.net
An important step for Afghanistan
Muhammad Zamir | Published: April 21, 2014 00:00:00 | Updated: November 30, 2026 06:01:00
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