The phrase 'Arab Spring' has become a buzzword since the early 2011, when mass revolts took place in most of the northern African Arab countries. This series of revolt was initiated by a Tunisian vegetable vendor, Mohamed Bouazizi, on December 17, 2010, which is known as Jasmine Revolution. But the present volatile situation of the Arab world forces us to ask whether the revolution and its aftermath are any longer a 'spring' for the Arabs.
We can relate the incidents of early 2011 to a 'domino effect'. Domino effect is a situation in which one event instigates a series of similar events to happen one after another in surrounding areas. Former US President Dwight Eisenhower coined the phrase in 1954 to describe the linear sequence of communism during the Cold War. Eisenhower said, "You have a row of dominoes set up, you knock over the first one, and what will happen to the last one is a certainty that it will go over very quickly."
The same thing happened to the Arab world. Absence of democracy provoked the people to revolt against the age-old rulers in their respective countries. But if we analyse the present socio-political condition of these countries, it becomes clear to us that the spirit of the revolution is already on the wane. Let us start with the case of Egypt.
Egypt has been ruled by the military since 1952. After the fall of Mubarak's regime on February 11, 2011, the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF) ruled the country. On June 30, 2012, Muslim Brotherhood's candidate Mohamed Morsi became the fifth president of Egypt (first head of state to be democratically elected). But he was overthrown by General Fattah el Sisi on July 03, 2013, who reinstalled the 'never ending' influence of military on Egyptian politics. So, we can call Morsi's government a one-year-long 'interim democratic regime' that caused a small hiatus in the chain of the military regimes. Currently, the Egyptian society is highly divided, and, apparently, moving towards a civil war-like situation.
Again, the extent to which the Syrian civil war and humanitarian crisis has affected its people after the so-called 'spring' is horrifying. Sectarian hostilities between Shia and Sunni communities have almost reached the peak. The Syrian people experienced the shocking Hama incident in 1982, when President Basher's father, President Hafiz al Assad ordered an ethnic cleansing of the Sunni people. But the present crisis of the country is much more dreadful. More than 100,000 people have been killed since March, 2011. The West is mysteriously silent about the civil war after the Assad government has agreed to submit its chemical weapons to the West. It is now clear that the target of US 'gunboat diplomacy' was getting rid of Syria's chemical weapons, not addressing its humanitarian crisis.
In Libya, the post-Gaddafi era is marked by violent blood spilling among the small regional factions and armed groups. Al-Qaeda is becoming stronger in Maghreb. The killing of US ambassador to Libya, Christopher Stevens, on September 11, 2012, is the clear indication that the country is not on the expected track.
Tunisia, the birthplace of Arab Spring, is also facing an acute political crisis like in other post-revolution countries in the region. Ruling Islamist Ennahda party is closely related to Muslim Brotherhood. Opposition leaders Mohamed Brahimi and Chokri Belaid were killed by the extremists, with the anti-government sentiment beginning to sweep across the country.
In the Middle East, Yemen is also experiencing a turbulent political situation after the 33-year rule of Ali Abdullah Saleh. In recent times, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), based in Yemen, is the main threat to the sovereignty of this country. Again, Yemen has become one of the frequent targets of US unmanned Drone attacks, which has created a severe humanitarian crisis.
On the other hand, the wave of change has had little impact on the Gulf monarchies. The ecstasy over the Arab Spring has all but gone now, as the Arab world finds itself stuck in an abysmal political crisis as well as economic mess. To some extent, the influence of the previous regimes is still predominant as in Egypt. Against this backdrop, one can easily realise that the post-Arab Spring situation in the greater Arab world is highly complicated for the general people.
The real spring in the Arab world will come when the people will be free to decide on their own social, economic and political systems - when everyone will enjoy freedom - when everyone will get their 'own' states.
The writer is a post-graduate
in International Relations at the
University of Dhaka.
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