Some in Scotland have been seeking independence for a few decades. Matters moved to top gear when some activists started a fresh campaign about two years ago. The Scottish Independence Referendum held on September 18 however saw the people of Scotland rejecting independence by 55.3 per cent to 44.7 per cent (by 2,001,926 votes to 1,617,989). The winning total needed was 1,852,828. The percentage seeking independence this time round had risen by over 11 per cent of votes cast (compared to previous attempts). This underlined a clear mandate for change. It may be recalled that when the Edinburgh Agreement was signed on October 15, 2012, paving the way for a referendum in 2014, polls suggested about a third of Scotland's 4.2m voters wanted independence.
Glasgow, Scotland's largest council area and the third largest city in Britain, voted in favour of independence by 194,779 to 169,347, with Dundee, West Dunbartonshire and North Lanarkshire also voting "Yes". However, Edinburgh, the nation's capital, rejected independence by 194,638 to 123,927, while Aberdeen City voted "No" by a margin of more than 20,000 votes.
It was a difficult moment for Scottish democracy and was also a source of disappointment for more than a million voters. It nevertheless reiterated the determination of Scotland's younger generation to get a fairer share of the pie associated with governance.
The vote was the culmination of a two-year campaign. Talks will now begin on devolving more powers to Scotland. Scotland's First Minister, Alex Salmond gracefully accepted defeat. He pointed out that the referendum was an agreed and consented process and Scotland had decided by a majority not to become an independent country at this stage. Mr Salmond has called on the main unionist parties to make good on their promises of greater powers being devolved to the Scottish Parliament. He has also hinted that Westminster leaders must avoid "reneging" on their pledge to devolve more powers to Scotland.
Downing Street in London has dismissed such claims from Alex Salmond and mentioned that a House of Commons motion in the next few days would set out a timetable through which the UK parties will deliver on the path of further devolution. This assertion has been supported publicly by Alistair Darling head of the 'Better Together' campaign which had fiercely opposed Scottish independence. It may be recalled that Prime Minister David Cameron, Labour leader Ed Miliband and Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg all vowed before the referendum that Scotland would be given additional powers if it rejected independence. Their pledge means that a legislation devolving more powers to Scotland would be delivered by whichever government comes into office at next year's General Election in the UK.
Meanwhile, the Queen has said that Scotland's vote to stay in the Union was "a result that all of us throughout the United Kingdom will respect". She added: "Knowing the people of Scotland as I do, I have no doubt that Scots, like others throughout the United Kingdom, are able to express strongly-held opinions before coming together again in a spirit of mutual respect and support,"
It is understood that this quest for further devolved power to be put in place through the anticipated Parliamentary motion will, inter alia, recognise that people across Scotland voted? for a Union based on the pooling and sharing of resources and for the? continuation of devolution inside the United Kingdom; note the need to guarantee a timetable for further devolution to Scotland; call on the government to lay before Parliament a Command Paper including the proposals of all three UK political parties by October 30 and to consult widely with the Scottish people, civic Scotland and the Scottish Parliament on these proposals; further call on the government to publish heads of agreement by the end of November and draft clauses for the new Scotland Bill by the end of January 2015.
Alistair Darling has pointed out that "Lord Smith of Kelvin has agreed to oversee the process to take forward the devolution commitments with powers over tax, spending and welfare all agreed by November and draft legislation published by January". Mr. Darling has also pointed out that the powers of the Welsh and Northern Irish assemblies needed to be looked at, along with the case for transferring greater economic powers to English cities.
The expected process has become slightly complex given the Prime Minister Cameron's proposal that there should be a system where only MPs from England would vote on English issues in parliament. His view in this regard was stated in the 'Mail on Sunday' where Mr Cameron challenged his Labour counterpart to explain why Scottish MPs at Westminster "should be able to vote to vary income tax rates in England, when the Scottish Parliament is going to be setting Scottish income tax rates in Scotland". The Labour leader, in response, has urged caution and warned the Conservative government in London to avoid creating 'two classes of MPs' and urged that all MPs should work together and while doing so remember the democratic will as exercised by the Scottish people. It has also been urged that those living outside Scotland should understand that almost one-third of Scots now say they are "equally Scottish and British" - the highest proportion since former Labour PM Tony Blair came to office in 1997.
Analysts believe that some of the questions and issues that led to this referendum need to be addressed sooner rather than later. Both sides battled hard over the economy, with claims and counter-claims over currency, oil and business playing a big part of the debate. At the centre of the disagreement was the Pound with the Scottish government consistently stressing a currency union would be in the "best interest" of both Scotland and the rest of the UK - something the UK government strenuously rejected, along with a currency union. Another area of contention was how much of the North Sea oil Scotland was entitled to - and what it might be worth. The future of financial institutions and businesses north of the English border was also a subject of heated discussion. The Scottish government in this context calculated that "each Scot would be £1,000 better off" after 15 years of independence. The UK Treasury, however, claimed Scotland, as part of the UK, would be able to have lower tax or higher spending than under independent government. In this regard, according to the BBC, this "UK Dividend" was estimated to be worth £1,400 per person in Scotland in each year from 2016-17 onwards.
Ultimately, few know whether the above assumption of the UK Treasury will eventually come true but the No vote suggests that people in Scotland were more persuaded by Better Together's arguments.
Mr Salmond, the Scottish First Minister, has already announced that he would resign as Scottish National Party (SNP) leader at the party's conference in November, before standing down as first minister when the party elects its next leader in a membership ballot. He has also said that there were a "number of eminently qualified and very suitable candidates" to replace him but Nicola Sturgeon, the current deputy first minister and deputy SNP leader, is seen as a clear frontrunner. It appears that she has already initiated this process by mentioning that the referendum vote was a political initiative and Scotland can still emerge as the real winner. She has indicated that she could "think of no greater privilege than to seek to lead the party I joined when I was just 16."
In conclusion, one needs to agree with Sarah O'Connor's evaluation in The Financial Times of the current scenario in the UK. She observes that "the 'No' vote has maintained the status quo and averted the scenarios that investors and economists had most feared - a plunge in the Pound, capital flight from Scotland and a period of deep uncertainty that could have undermined Britain's financial recovery". In other words, the vote had reduced the 'downside risk' factor.
Economists think that this decision by Scotland will mean investors being more confident and in all likelihood this will urge the Bank of England to start raising the interest rates around February or March, 2015. It is felt that outlook for the economy on both sides of the Scottish border will brighten.
Nevertheless, there is also a feeling that worry will persist on how the anticipated devolution of powers will change the balance of taxation and spending across the United Kingdom and what it will mean for the UK's public finances. It acquires importance given the fact that both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats in London have said that they would hand over full control of income tax to a Scottish government, allowing it to set its own tax rates and bands. This would make the UK a looser Union. It will be an interesting ride forward that will be carefully watched by all in the G-20.
Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador, is an analyst specialised in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance.
mzamir@dhaka.net