The two-year clock of Britain for leaving the European Union (EU) has started clicking. British Prime Minister Theresa May has pushed the button of Brexit on March 29 by triggering the Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon as she signed a 6-page letter to Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council of heads of EU governments, seeking divorce of Britain from its 44-year relationship with the EU. United Kingdom and The European Union have hence embarked upon a very difficult divorce procedure. The divorce process, which has been initiated by Britain, will be complete by March 2019. No country has ever left the EU before.
March 29 will be recalled as a day to celebrate, or even a day of independence, by half the British people who favoured Brexit. For the other half, who favoured to stand united with EU, the day will be remembered as a bleak one. The future of both Britain and the club of the remaining 27 EU members depends on how in the relentless negotiations the British prime minister proceeds for a good deal and how the EU responds to safeguard the interest of its members. The negotiations on unwinding Britain's membership of the club are certain to be litigious.
Brexit with a deal favourable for Britain may prove to be the greatest disaster to befall the European Union in its 60-year history and could herald the beginning of an ending of the club. European bloc will be losing not just a member, which is its second-largest economy. Other members may follow Britain's footsteps. Brexit may even trigger Scotland's exit from the United Kingdom. Ominously, Europe as a bloc may start fragmenting.
A successful Brexit may also become a precursor of an unprecedented global volatility and disintegration of many international pacts and clubs unleashing a violent centrifugal force of narrow nationalism. The world may witness arrogant leaders shouting chauvinistic slogans like "America First".
If, on the other hand, the EU, for the sake of motivating its remaining members to stay united, imposes on Britain some punitive bills for its divorce petition or if Britain ends up flouncing out of Europe without any deal at all, Britons who were given wildly unrealistic expectations of a Utopia ahead will be utterly frustrated. They will face a traumatic economic future and might repent their decision to say 'goodbye' to the EU through a referendum held just nine months ago.
Any divorce, marital or otherwise, is rarely mutual. One side often loses interest in the relationship before the other. The disinterested partner decides to leave even though she or he has no idea what to expect. The partner who has been left can experience distress, denial or depression. Both partners try to bargain and ultimately, though, there is acceptance. It is only at this stage that deals can be made and the partners can move on. Once the split has happened, partners feel conflicting emotions such as relief, fear or regret. They one day must look back and ask themselves if they did the right thing.
EU started its journey as European Economic Community (EEC), or 'Common Market', back in 1957 with six founding countries when Britain was not included. After the Second World War and the subsequent Cold War between East and West, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands founded this European club by signing the Treaty of Rome for a peaceful Europe. Britain joined the club on January 01, 1973.
European Union has had flaws which should be viewed critically. There are problems with the European Union no doubt, but so are with every large institution. Critics say that the EU does not protect peace in Europe; rather it promotes a ridiculous amount of laws and regulations. Some diehard Eurosceptics enjoy saying that EU even dictates the curvature of bananas that a European can eat! Such a satirical propaganda is half-true and the fact half-expressed. The full truth is that European Commission with a view to ensuring quality of bananas in international trade decreed, through their Regulation Number 2257/94, that "bananas in general should be 'free from malformation or abnormal curvature'. Those bananas marketed as 'extra class' must be perfect, 'class 1' can have 'slight defects of shape' and 'class 2' can have full-scale defects of shape". So a banana, to tell the full truth, belonging to 'class 2' may even look like a ginger!
EU bumped on many occasions along its long road for the last six decades, but undeniably it has played a monumental role in promoting prosperity, innovation, and opportunity, in raising standards and expectations and in helping bring a lasting peace in Europe. It has promoted democracy and free markets at home and abroad. It allowed Europe to speak with a louder voice. Forty-eight per cent British people opted not to leave EU and fifty-two opted to leave in the referendum held on June 23, 2016 without perhaps knowing the full implications of a Brexit. If a referendum is held today there is a chance that the result could be just the reverse.
Why have the majority of Britons opted to leave EU in the first place? The main factor that propelled them was perhaps an unhealthy dose of fear, a fear of losing control. They want to take back control of running their own affairs independent of any EU interference. They are afraid of free movement of EU citizens to their country. They want an end of the jurisdiction of European Court of Justice in Britain.
Now that the real Brexit process is already under way, it is time for Britain's hard encounter with reality.
Real negotiations will not begin before elections in France and Germany. Many questions will then be asked and answers to those questions will determine how to fix the terms of the Article 50, covering multifarious issues.
Interestingly, Britain wants both divorce and a free access to EU market. Britons, the analysts believe, will surely be poorer if they cannot do business with the European countries the same way they have now been doing. So, Britain wants a clean withdrawal from the single market, a ban on EU migrants, and an end of the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) over Britain and at the same time seeks favourable customs arrangement as well as a barrier-free access to EU market through a separate trade agreement. How can it be possible? Is it not asking too much out of a contentious divorce? Is it not like aiming at a divorce that allows the divorced partners to sleep in the same bed?
Meanwhile, EU has prepared a draft guidelines which has ruled out starting free trade talks with the UK before "sufficient progress" is made on other issues like the status of EU citizens in the UK and the British citizens in EU, UK's land border with the Republic of Ireland and settlement of the 'divorce bill' requiring Britain to pay as much as US$ 64 billion which can be enforceable at the International Court of Justice in case Britain disagrees to pay.
Brexit has not yet happened. It is still two years away. Brexit proposition has not yet invited disaster in full scale. But the effects of a future Brexit have already been palpable in this lull period before the real storm. The British Pound has already crashed by 20 per cent. Anyone with income or assets in Pound Sterling is already poorer. Only God knows what will happen to those who have no option but to live with British Pound once Brexit is complete.
Brexit will undoubtedly have an impact on UK-Bangladesh relationship. Of course, market forces will determine what happens to our trade relationships with Britain. In a scenario where Britain falls into an economic quagmire by a recession or a steep fall of Pound value for a long period of time, Bangladesh's exports to UK would greatly plummet.
Brexit is happening when the geopolitical environment is fast deteriorating. Wars across the Middle East and North Africa are causing surge in migrant inflows into Europe. Eastern Europe is feeling a direct threat from an aggressive Russia under President Vladimir Putin. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish President, is giving up hope to be a member of EU and aspiring to be an authoritarian by spurning democratic values. America's new president, Donald Trump, has been quite hostile not just to multilateral free trade and Muslim immigrants. He is not happy with EU and even praised Britain's decision to leave the block and urging others to follow.
Brexiteers may however have a glimmer of hope that something positive will happen. They may read the history of Singapore for encouragement. Singapore feared an impending economic catastrophe when it was forced out of the union with Malaysia back in 1965. But the misfortune did not visit Singapore due to good planning and determination of the Singaporean government to weather any subsequent economic crisis. Brexiteers may proudly say that London was a global trade and financial center long before EU was born and will remain so. London has proven its capacity to disseminate the best of education on every discipline of science, art, and culture. The sun of knowledge will continue shining over Britain in any event.
maswood@hotmail.com
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