Proving the poll predictions wrong, British Prime Minister David Cameron won a stunning election victory and swept easily into office for another five years - with his Labour opposition in tatters. The Conservative Party with 331 seats and 11.3 million votes and 37 per cent of votes cast, (a gain of 24 seats) has absolute majority in the House of Commons (with a total of 650 seats). The Labour Party, led by Ed Miliband, has ended up with 232 seats (a loss of 26 seats compared to 2010) and the Liberal Democrats, led by Nick Clegg, has secured only eight seats (a loss of 49 seats compared to 2010). The party that has emerged as the biggest winner is the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP), led by Nicola Sturgeon, with a total of 56 seats out of the total 59 available in Scotland. The SNP has gained 50 seats, most of them at the expense of Labour which lost 40 seats and ended up with only one. The Conservative Party also won only one seat in this part of the United Kingdom. An interesting aspect, however, is that the anti-European UK Independence Party and the Green Party bagged 12.6 per cent and 3.8 per cent of the votes cast, but their support was too thinly spread out to win constituencies. Both ended up with only one MP each.
The above results led to an interesting democratic exercise consistent with the long democratic traditions in the United Kingdom. The leaders of the three important Parties - Labour, Liberal Democrats and the UK Independent Party - after accepting defeat and the poll results, submitted their resignations promptly, as according to them, they were unable to live up to the expectations of their party followers. There was no effort on their part to explain their failure with allegations of 'carefully organised vote-tampering' or the need to have elections under the supervision of a 'caretaker government'. One wishes that such a positive trend could be replicated in other countries that claim to be following the Westminster system of democracy. This was an example of healthy accountability at work.
A significant feature of the 2015 UK polls is the victory of a larger number of persons of South Asian origin as MPs in the House of Commons. This indicates that nearly three million expatriates from this region are gradually becoming more involved in British politics. This included three women of Bangladesh origin from the Labour Party- Tulip Rizwana Siddiq (grand-daughter of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman), re-election of Rushanara Ali (the first British lawmaker with Bangladeshi antecedents- who beat her Conservative Party rival by over a remarkable 24 thousand votes) and Dr. Rupa Asha Huq who won narrowly by a margin of less than 300 votes. Ten persons of Indian origin also won. Some of them have been re-elected, including Keith Vaz. One person of Sri Lankan origin and 10 of Pakistani origin have also been elected to the British Parliament. Some of them were associated with the Conservative Party and are now looking forward to playing more responsible roles in the 10 Downing Street precinct. Analysts are now observing that the emergence of such a South Asian lobby might help protect some of the important areas for the immigrant community - healthcare, unemployment benefits and socio-welfare facilities.
It has been pointed out by others that Labour's misfortune in Scotland (despite the fact that Gordon Brown, the last Prime Minister in the Labour government, was from Scotland) and the general decline of the Liberal Democrats all over Britain helped to ease the path of the Conservatives during the 2015 elections. Another factor that is presumed to have helped the Conservative Party was the bilious reaction of the uncommitted to the prospect of a minority Labour government propped up by the Scottish National Party. This possibility was particularly understood by Lynton Crosby - a consultant appointed by Cameron - and he used this successfully as a wedge issue in the campaign, especially in England.
Commentators reflecting on the reasons as to why Cameron's Conservative Party managed to do so well, contrary to the views set forth by pollsters before the election, have drawn attention to the following: the compounded disadvantage of the Labour Party, partially because of its "almost petulantly unapologetic attitude to its profligacy" (Jenan Ganesh in the Financial Times) while in Office during 2000 to 2010. It has been alleged that the Labour leadership unfortunately touted a past shady economic record. This has been compared with the Conservative Party's fiscal policy for the last five years which avoided double-dip recession. Conservative Party also drew the attention of the voters to the fact that UK had been the best performing of the G-7 economies last year with a real gross domestic product rate of 2.6 per cent. Comparatively, in 2009, the last full year of Labour government, the figure was minus 4.3 per cent.
Moreover, as analysts (Niall Ferguson, George Parker and Chris Giles) have pointed out in the Financial Times, far from being in depression, the UK economy has generated more than 1.9 million jobs and unemployment is now '5.6 per cent, roughly half the rates in Italy and France'. Weekly earnings in general are also up by more than 8.0 per cent, and in the private sector, the figure is above 10 per cent. The government's policy of fiscal stabilisation has also been relatively successful, even though the extent of deficit reduction fell short of the Cameron goal. Inflation is below 2.0 per cent and falling. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has observed that the net public debt has been stabilised at roughly the same level relative to GDP (gross domestic product) as that of the USA. All these parameters, it is being hoped, will be reflected as the government prepares its first truly Conservative budget and has the opportunity to make big cuts in an autumn public spending review.
The British Prime Minister, however, realises that he faces several challenges over the next two years, and that two amongst them, will need his personal attention. The first relates not only to the holding of a referendum in 2017 to revise Britain's terms of membership of the European Union (EU) but also to hold especial discussions on this matter in the British Parliament. The second aspect that will have to be addressed very cautiously and carefully will be the question of "respect" for the nations of the UK - an elegant code for the possible devolution of power in Scotland.
Cameron in a statement after the election has tried to pre-empt the issue of Scotland by claiming that the victory of the SNP in Scotland did not mean that the election had been all about securing another vote or referendum on whether Scotland will remain within the UK. The Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has partially agreed with Cameron but has also reiterated certain important aspects that will need to be addressed urgently in the context of intra-relationship between Scotland and the rest of UK. Sturgeon has stated that "the people of Scotland voted for a SNP manifesto, which had ending austerity as its number one priority" opposite to what had been espoused by the Conservatives in the election.
The SNP has already called for new tax and welfare powers to be devolved to Scotland as a "priority". This devolution, according to the MPs from the SNP, will have to focus primarily on powers over business taxes, employment, the minimum wage and welfare, all levers Scotland needs for its economic growth and to emerge out of relative poverty traps compared to other parts of the UK. Scottish politicians, in recent discussions prior to the elections, also raised questions regarding issues as to how much Scotland is expected to contribute in the future towards defence and also how much it should pay towards UK debt interest repayment. The SNP has underlined that their large victory meant that the people of Scotland have endorsed the eventual independence of Scotland which was earlier rejected in the 2014 referendum by 55 per cent to 45 per cent.
Meanwhile, the EU leadership has reminded Cameron that the UK needs to pursue its future relationship within the EU and with other EU members very carefully. French President Hollande has warned Cameron that he cannot behave unilaterally with respect to Britain's place in the EU and that "there are rules to be respected". Hollande telephoned Cameron after his victory and mentioned that "it is legitimate to take into account the expectations of the British people but there are rules in Europe and among these rules there is consultation". Through this a hint was given that there is a broader paradigm that should not be overlooked. Cameron, responding to EU anxiety, has responded by stating that he will campaign to stay in the EU but only if he can secure reforms such as changes on migration and associated benefits and the repatriation of certain powers to London. This last ambiguous factor would eventually be clarified during future discussions. Cameron, above all, will face the onerous task of quelling rebellious Eurosceptics within his party ranks, sooner rather than later.
The US authorities, while felicitating Cameron, have expressed anxiety that the British government, although a NATO member, is planning to reduce their defence spending to around 1.8 per cent of their GDP which is contrary to the minimum of 2.0 per cent for all NATO members. This, and Cameron's lack of interest in foreign policy, particularly about what is happening in Iraq and Afghanistan, are troubling US policy-makers. Cameron will have to re-assure the USA in this regard.
It would, however, be important to note here that Cameron, in his own way, has tried to douse concern and assure the continuity of policies that has brought him victory by re-appointing within hours of the results, his four highest ranking Ministers -- those heading Defence, the Treasury, Home and Foreign Affairs. This will, hopefully, calm troubled waters in Camelot and give the Prime Minister time to initiate new ideas.
The writer, a former Ambassador, is an analyst specialised in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance.
muhammadzamir0@gmail.com
Cameron holds on to Camelot
Muhammad Zamir | Published: May 19, 2015 00:00:00 | Updated: November 30, 2026 06:01:00
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