Strategic analysts have commented that Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney accepted an invitation to visit China extended by President Xi Jinping and that this signalled a "turning point" in the countries' relationship.
The invite came after the two leaders met for 40 minutes on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) Conference last year It was the first meeting between a Canadian Prime Minister and the Chinese President since 2017. It may be noted that the two countries have had a strained relationship not only since a diplomatic row in 2018 but also due to being locked in a trade dispute since 2024.
The Canadian Prime Minister Carney's visit to China touched on different dimensions which were significant for both countries. The common denominator was that size and influence make some cooperation necessary. The Carney government did not see this visit as a deviation from that view. One thing was, however, clear-- Canada cannot achieve its objective of reducing economic reliance on the US without increasing trade with China.
Carney approached his discussions with an eye on increasing collaboration in areas of mutual interest like energy and climate, and putting guardrails on areas where the two countries clash, like defence and critical minerals. Such an effort was seen by Colin Robertson, a former Canadian diplomat as "approaching the relationship now with the realism that we haven't seen for decades."
Carney delivered a statement to journalists outside a Beijing park before concluding his visit in January this year-- "It has been a historic and productive two days. We have to understand the differences between Canada and other countries, and focus our efforts to work together where we're aligned. It can be said that our meeting last year opened a new chapter in turning China-Canada relations toward improvement."
China's top leader also observed that Carney had been the first Canadian Prime Minister to visit China in eight years. It was also noted that both sides now hoped that better relations would help improve a global governance system that was described as "under great strain." There was also a call for a new relationship "adapted to new global realities" and cooperation in agriculture, energy and finance.
Jacob Cooke, the CEO of WPIC Marketing + Technologies, a Canadian business owner in China has called Carney's visit game-changing, because it "re-establishes dialogue, respect and a framework between the two nations. These three things we did not have. It will help exporters navigate the Chinese market". This is significant as the two Parties were not talking for years.
It may be recalled that Canada followed the U.S. in putting tariffs of 100 per cent on EVs from China and 25 per cent on steel and aluminum during former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau-- Carney's predecessor. China responded by imposing duties of 100 per cent on Canadian canola oil and meal and 25 per cent on pork and seafood. It added a 75.8 per cent tariff on canola seeds last August. Collectively, the import taxes effectively closed the Chinese market to Canadian canola. Overall, China's imports from Canada fell 10.4 per cent last year to US Dollar 41.7 billion, according to Chinese trade data.
China is now hoping Trump's pressure tactics on allies such as Canada will drive them to pursue a foreign policy that is less aligned with the United States. To this, one can add the U.S. President's suggestion that Canada could gain by becoming America's 51st State.
Xi Jinping told visiting Prime Minister Mark Carney that he is willing to continue working to improve ties, noting that talks have been underway on restoring and restarting cooperation since the two held an initial meeting in October on the sidelines of a regional economic conference in South Korea.
Carney, who met with several leading Chinese companies in Beijing, said ahead of his trip that his government is focused on building an economy less reliant on the U.S. at what he called "a time of global trade disruption."
US had carefully monitored the visit of PM Carney to China and also regretted the Canadian decision to allow Chinese EVs into their market. The US comment came in response to the deal by Canada to allow 49,000 EVs into Canada at 15 per cent tariff-- down from 100 per cent. Officials of the US Administration have said that Canada will regret its decision to allow imports of so many Chinese EVs, and that those cars would not be allowed to enter the US. US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has observed, "I think they'll look back at this decision and surely regret it to bring Chinese cars into their market." However, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has observed that such a limited number of vehicles would not impact US car companies exporting cars to Canada.
Beijing has also indicated that it looked forward to Canada's investment in sectors, including services, aerospace and advanced manufacturing. Both sides apparently plan to explore oil and gas development, and cooperate in natural uranium trade. Canadian Minister Tim Hodgson has also indicated that he had heard "loud and clear" that China was looking for reliable trading partners, and would like more Canadian energy products. Such a possibility is being viewed as a step of success by Canadian Prime Minister Carney.
The bilateral visit to China by Prime Minister Carney appears to have generally agreed with Xi Jinping's offering of "four proposals" to Carney on China-Canada relations for the future: (a) be partners who respect each other's sovereignty, territorial integrity and political systems; (b) be partners in common development: describing the "essence" of bilateral trade ties as "mutual benefit and win-win cooperation"; (c) be partners who trust each other: Xi says both countries should also encourage "people-to-people exchanges", the "most fundamental" form of connection and (d) be partners in mutual coordination. It was also remarked that China is willing to work with Canada through international frameworks like the UN, G20 and APEC to "jointly address global challenges".
Before concluding it would be appropriate to also refer to some socio-economic dimensions that exist between Canada and China. An economic conflict between the two countries started in late 2024. Their trade war emerged alongside other ongoing trade wars both countries were involved with including the China-US trade war and the 2025 US trade war with Canada and Mexico. In January 2026, both countries have now agreed to mutually lower tariffs.
Trade relations between China and Canada deteriorated substantially beginning in August 2024, when Canada announced plans to implement substantial tariffs on various Chinese manufactured goods, following similar protectionist measures previously enacted by the United States and European Union.
On March 8 2025 China's Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council announced retaliatory tariffs on several Canadian agricultural exports, following an "anti-discrimination probe". The products targeted represented significant export sectors for Canadian agricultural producers, particularly in Western Canadian provinces where rapeseed production forms a substantial component of agricultural output.
The situation had deteriorated between March and July, 2025 with Chinese tariffs on Canadian goods, including a 100 per cent tariff against Canadian rapeseed oil, peas and oil cakes in addition to a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian aquatic products. In retaliation Prime Minister Carney announced that Canada would impose higher tariffs on steel from China.
The evolving scenario changed for the better after Carney met with Xi at the APEC South Korea 2025 meeting to discuss trade barriers related to agriculture, canola, electric vehicles and seafood. After their meeting on January 16 this year both leaders agreed to lower tariffs on Canadian canola oil from 85 to 15 per cent, and on Chinese EVs from 100 to 6.1 per cent.
Canada and China have hit a "turning point" in relations that hopefully will yield positive developments for the Canadian economy. The Canadian Prime Minister has significantly pointed out that "distance is not the way to solve problems, not the way to serve our people." In his own remarks, Xi has also said, "China is willing to work with Canada to push China-Canada relations back onto a healthy, stable, and sustainable correct track." If this happens, it will benefit both countries.
However, in response to Carney's visit to China and the growing understanding between the two countries, Donuld Trump has threatened Canada that if it concludes a trade deal with China, he will impose a 100 per cent tariff on all goods coming over the border from Canada. Relations between the United States and its northern neighbor have been rocky since Trump returned to the White House a year ago, with spats over trade and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney decrying a "rupture" in the US-led global order.
In this context Trump has noted on his Truth Social platform that if Carney "thinks he is going to make Canada a 'Drop off Port' for China to send goods and products into the United States, he is sorely mistaken. China will eat Canada alive, completely devour it, including the destruction of their businesses, social fabric, and general way of life," he said.
It would be worthwhile to conclude by recalling that after his visit to China and then Davos, the Canadian Prime Minister has made an interesting comment-- "Canada doesn't live because of the United States. Canada thrives because we are Canadians."
Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador is an analyst specialised in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance.
muhammadzamir0@gmail.com