Bangladesh is one of the 47 least developed countries (LDCs) in the world. The country also belongs to the World Bank's list of 34 low-income countries (LICs). The United Nations categorises a group of countries with low levels of income and structural handicaps to sustainable development into the LDCs. Besides the LICs, a dozen of middle-income countries have been included in the list of LDCs in 2014. The LIC is one of the ascending categories of low, lower-middle, upper-middle and high-income countries. This classification is exclusively based on the gross national income (GNI) per capita using Atlas method of the World Bank (WB).
According to the WB World Development Indicators 2014, Bangladesh's per capita GNI was $900 in 2013 against the LIC ceiling of $1,045. However, we would cross the LIC ceiling of $1,130 in 2016 maintaining a per capita GNI growth rate of 5.4 per cent. However, we are unlikely to graduate out of LDCs at the same time because of not fulfilling its other criteria. Â
The UN identifies the LDCs on the basis of (a) GNI per capita, (b) human asset index (HAI) and (c) economic vulnerability index (EVI). The present criteria have been developed modifying its indicators and methodologies five times over the last two decades.
Moreover, it has acknowledged the WB's concepts of economic growth, Atlas method and LIC graduation criterion. The UN takes three-year average of the WB's per capita GNI data in its triennial LDC reviews. On the other hand, the HAI is a composite index of the under-nourished population ratio, under-five mortality rate, gross secondary enrollment ratio and adult literacy rate, which is calculated at progressive better scale of 0-100. However, the EVI is expressed as a regressive-better index at a scale of 0-100, which is calculated with five exposures and three shock indicators.
These exposure indicators are population, coastal population, remoteness, export concentration and income share in primary activities, while the shock indicators are instability of agricultural production, instability of exports and natural disasters. The UN Committee for Development Policy (UN-CDP) sets both inclusion in and graduation out criteria in each LDC triennial review.
The graduation requires more of economic, social and environmental strengths of any economy. The graduation threshold of income is set at 20 per cent higher above the inclusion level, which is 10 per cent higher for the HAI but 10 per cent lower for the EVI.
As the larger EVI scores represent more vulnerability, its graduation requires lower score than inclusion limit. In case of GNI per capita, the 3-year average of income ceiling of the LICs is set as the floor of LDC inclusion. The threshold of income graduation was accordingly set at $1,190 in the 2012 review.
Moreover, the HAI graduation limit was set at 66 as minimum and that of EVI at 32 as maximum. However, these graduation limits were $990, 64 and 38 respectively for GNI per capita, HAI and EVI in the 2006 review. A country becomes eligible to quit if it meets any two graduation criteria in two triennial reviews. If the GNI per capita of a LDC rises to at least double of its graduation threshold, it is deemed eligible for graduation irrespective of the scores of other indices.
Bangladesh was included in the LDCs in 1975 for its very low levels of per capita GDP, literacy rate and share of manufacturing sector. Those three indicators are now expanded to 13 and are arranged under three heads of GNI per capita, HAI and EVI. According to the UN methodology, our per capita GNI was $403 in 2006 review against a graduation threshold of $900.
Our GNI data looks lower than the national statistics because of use of one or two- year backdated data and 3-year average of the WB data. Our HAI score was 50.1 against a graduation limit of 64 in 2006. However, our EVI score 25.8 was far below its graduation ceiling of 38, when we satisfied at least one criterion. Meanwhile, our per capita GNI and HAI increased to $637 and 54.7, respectively but remained below graduation criteria in 2012 review.
Moreover, a rise in the EVI score to 32.4 brought us below the graduation threshold in 2012, which was due to addition of new indicators of coastal population and disaster victims in the index. Hasn't it deepened our LDC status satisfying all three criteria?
We could not make comparative progress among the LDCs. Our rank in per capita GNI was down from the 19th position in 2006 review to 24th in 2012. We may reach the threshold of income-graduation by 2020 attaining an average growth rate of 6.5 per cent. But won't we remain far below the new threshold to be set in the 2021 LDC review?
On the other hand, our position was unchanged at 13th during 2006-2012 period. Though our rank in EVI was 1st in 2006, it came down to 4th in 2012. Isn't it apparent that other LDCs are moving ahead leaving us behind? Among the 12 LDCs which joined the 2014 Asia-Pacific conference, our position was 9th in GNI per capita and 11th in HAI on an average over the last three triennial reviews. How many of these LDCs will be with us in such a conference in the next decade?
Meanwhile, Vanuatu and Tuvalu met graduation criteria and are waiting for UN decision. As per a background paper of UN-CDP in 2014, another 12 countries would be eligible by the 2021 triennial review, of which Myanmar, Nepal, Bhutan and Kiribati are from the Asia-Pacific region. Won't it be our discredit if we belong to the LDCs in the next decade?
Notwithstanding the graduation of many LICs to middle-income countries, only four countries have graduated from LDCs so far, of which Botswana did in 1994, Cape Verde in 2007, the Maldives in 2011 and Samoa in 2014. The UN Istanbul declaration 2011 admitted some programmes for development assistance to LDCs so that at least half of them could meet graduation criteria by 2020.
Meanwhile, the UNCTAD experts' meeting of LDCs in 2012 identified difficulties with 37 LDCs to meet one or two of the three criteria. They concluded that the notion of half of the LDCs meeting the criteria by 2020 should be viewed from a long-term perspective. Accordingly, 2014 LDC Dhaka declaration blamed developed countries for inadequate supports. However, every country is moving ahead with limitations and we are also trying.
Bangladesh has success stories of green revolution and MDGs. Obviously, our sluggish investment is a barrier for turning into a (lower) middle-income country and also to graduate out of LDCs. Our finance minister may or may not identify the reasons behind it but there is no better option but to facilitate private investment. However, we could lift HAI score moving ahead to secondary enrollment and healthcare.
Our strength is praiseworthy in terms of MDGs with our domestic supports, according to the MDG progress report 2014. We met EVI graduation criteria earlier and were praised for adding the coastal population and disaster effects into calculating methods. Can't we move ahead with our climate adaptation efforts? Anyway, Bangladesh is not expected to remain happy with LDC status after 2021. We must have vision and wisdom for graduating out of the LDC group earlier than turning into a high-income country as per Vision 2041.
The writer is Associate Professor and Chairman, Department of Economics, Comilla University.
 akanda_ai@hotmail.com