Challenges facing the interim govt

Close to a month after a popular mass uprising led by students forced the despotic Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to flee the country, ending her 15 years of tyrannical rule, the interim government that took over the reins of power in the country on August 8 continues to consolidate its authority.

Bangladesh's path to a functioning democratic future after the fall of the despotic Sheikh Hasina regime remains uncertain and difficult. The government also faces formidable macroeconomic challenges, in particular, reining in inflation. The country now also grapples with slowing GDP growth, currency devaluation, a financial crisis, and looming debt. However, the interim government's priority now is to restore law and order across the country and stabilize the economic situation, offering a glimmer of hope for the nation's economic recovery.

In fact, the country that the interim government has inherited is far from stable. High inflationary pressure, endemic corruption, and undermining democratic institutions have left the country in a political and economic mess. The actions of the military are also being closely watched, given that Bangladesh has experienced 29 actual or attempted coups in its half-century-long history.

Hasina has used her control of levers of state power - the police, judiciary and civil service to keep her in power and rigged all the elections during her 15-year rule using those state levers. Her party (Awami League) loyalists have also deeply penetrated all these levers of power. Security forces including the army also face severe legitimacy crisis. Most people lost their trust in all these institutions. A few months ago, even a recently resigned Supreme Court Judge declared himself in public as a "politically committed judge".

Under Hasina's rule, the political culture was defined by zero-sum politics, making it almost impossible for opposition political parties to function. Bangladesh's road forward is now littered with hazards. The greatest danger comes from the Awami League (AL) and its alliance partners and international backers. Their followers, who are still active in politics, and their loyalists, who remain in various branches of government, will try to destabilise the interim government to bring back, if not Hasina but one of her family members, to power.

While the interim government works to rebuild political stability and trust in democratic processes, its inherent vulnerabilities, combined with AL loyalists' creation of political instability, will weaken it.

It is not surprising to see the AL actively mobilising sporadic demonstrations and instigating sectarian discord to destabilise and weaken the interim government. Just three weeks after Sheikh Hasina fled the country, as the nation was emerging from the shadows of turmoil, a faction of Ansar members initiated violent protests, prompting police intervention to restore order. This demonstration serves as a stark reminder of how deeply AL loyalists have penetrated all state institutions, including the security and law enforcement apparatus, and how they continue to pose a threat to political stability.

Hasina enjoyed close ties with India, especially with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In fact, India greatly emboldened her to consolidate her repressive regime to achieve its objectives in Bangladesh. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the first foreign leader to congratulate Hasina on her rigged election victory in January 2024, providing crucial international support to her despotic regime. Therefore, the ouster of Sheikh Hasina constitutes a significant setback for India's regional hegemonic policy.

Under Hasina's despotic rule, Bangladesh, with which India shares its longest land border along five Indian states stretching over 4,000 kilometres, became India's closest ally and an effective enforcer of its security goals. This enabled India to fulfil its dream of becoming the regional hegemonic power on the way to becoming "Vishawaguru"- a term coined by eminent Indian historian Ramchandra Guha.

She not only addressed India's security concerns but also agreed to allow India rail transit through Bangladesh. However, India left Bangladesh's concerns about Teesta River Water Sharing unaddressed. The Teesta River, which flows through both India and Bangladesh, has been a point of contention between the two countries due to the unequal distribution of its waters, affecting the livelihoods of millions of people in Bangladesh.

She was entirely dependent on India in conducting three rigged elections. India was singularly responsible for destroying democracy and democracy-supporting institutions in Bangladesh and helped perpetuate Hasina's despotic rule. In this venture, the BJP, the ruling party in India, and the Congress, the main opposition party, fully agreed, indicating a bipartisan consensus on India's policy towards Bangladesh.

Bangladesh also stands as India's foremost trade partner in South Asia, accounting for 12 per cent of India's total exports. Bilateral trade has grown significantly over the last few years, overwhelmingly favouring India. In 2023, India exported US$12.20 billion worth of goods to Bangladesh. Bangladesh has had a large and persistent trade deficit with India for a considerable period.

Hasina's ouster is a major blow to India, which has, under the Hindu supremacist Prime Minister Narendra Modi, effectively staked its relationship with Bangladesh on Hasina's despotic regime. As protesters sought to overthrow the Hasina regime, their anger has also been directed at Modi, her biggest international ally and supporter. Therefore, the protest movement led by students and supported by opposition parties has an anti-Indian bent.

When the deposed Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled Dhaka by military helicopter on August 5, there was little doubt about where she was heading for. When Hasina landed at an Indian air force base near New Delhi, she was received by Ajit Doval, Indian Prime Minister Modi's security adviser and who also oversees the external intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), which has been accused of meddling in the internal affairs of Bangladesh and other neighbouring countries. This indicates the Modi government's hostile attitude towards the regime change in Dhaka.

Hasina is still in Delhi as a guest of the Modi government, and there has been no decision about her plan to leave India. In fact, she enjoys bipartisan political support for her being the guest of the Indian government, as has the bipartisan support for the destruction of democracy and democracy-supporting institutions in Bangladesh to keep Hasina in power.

In a clear display of a hostile attitude towards Bangladesh, Indian Home Minister Amit Shah has made several controversial and unfounded claims against Bangladesh to incite hatred and division against Bangladesh. He specifically alleged that Bangladesh is systematically reducing the Hindu population within its borders. This Hindu card is now being used to create pressure on the interim government.

Prime Minister Modi, in his official statement on his recent telephone discussion with US President Joe Biden, said, "We also discussed the situation in Bangladesh and stressed the need for early restoration of normalcy, and ensuring the safety and security of minorities, especially Hindus, in Bangladesh." This is a statement coming from a person known as the "Butcher of Muslims in Gujrat". A Bangladeshi Hindu leader told Al Jazeera that attacks have been politically motivated, not communal.

Modi "made Islamophobic remarks" in 110 out of the 173 speeches he delivered during the recent Lok Sabha election campaign, according to the Human Rights Watch (HRW) report released on August 14, 2024. The HRW report further added that violence against religious minorities has also continued since the election, pointing to the deaths of 12 Muslim men and a Christian woman in 28 reported attacks across the country.

Also, the media in India has been using the current situation in Bangladesh to whip-up anti-Muslim rhetoric in India using the Hindu card. Recent events in Bangladesh show how Prime Minister Modi's Hindu supremacist project harmed India's regional interests.

Then, in the last week of August, India was accused of being responsible for devastating floods in Bangladesh, which have affected millions of people. Bangladesh claims that the flooding was caused by the decision to open the Dumbur dam on the Gumti river in the Indian state of Tripura, which shares an 800-km-long border with Bangladesh. Of course, India denies the allegation.

According to a media report, Modi is all set to unleash a new form of conflict, an economic war against Bangladesh. This upcoming economic confrontation will involve a series of measures aimed at undermining Bangladesh's financial stability and growth. The implications of this economic war could be far-reaching, affecting trade relations, investment opportunities, and overall economic cooperation between the two neighbouring countries.

Hasina's close relationship with India was detrimental to Bangladesh's interest and heavily tilted towards India. But that does not mean the interim government will have to take an anti-Indian stance. Bangladesh needs to recalibrate its foreign policy to put the bilateral relationship with India on an even keel. The adage "one can not choose one's neighbour" applies as much to Bangladesh as it does to India. Now is the time to wait and watch to see how India, over time, responds to Bangladesh's recalibrated foreign policy.

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