China-Japan rapprochement under stress

The latest question that is being widely talked about is whether Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will attend the commemorative parade in Beijing to mark the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II on September 03 next. China has made it known that it will invite Abe to attend the ceremony, but Tokyo has made no initiative as yet to let them know if he would attend the function  or not. Meanwhile, China's Global Times has particularly noted the Japanese media's analysis that Abe is unlikely to visit Beijing on that day but may come before or after that date.

For the first time China is to hold a parade to mark the end of the World War II next month. While Abe is still in two minds, Japanese sources have indicated that he would rather  visit Beijing before or after September 03. However, the Chinese commentators suggested that if Abe did not attend the parade, Beijing is unlikely to make it a public issue. But if the Chinese and the Japanese leaders appear together at the parade, "it will be a strong symbol of China-Japan rapprochement," China's Global Times commented editorially.   

The passing time appears quite sensitive to any China-Japan rapprochement especially after the passage of the Collective Defence Policy Bill in the Japanese parliament on July 16, marking the end of Tokyo's pacifism.  As per the new policy, if it becomes a law, Japan's military would be able to mobilise overseas provided three points are met. These are: when Japan is attacked or when a close ally is attacked and the result threatens Japan's survival and poses a clear danger to its people.

Japanese rightwing Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's decision to revise the country's pacifist constitution since the World War II and his rhetorical statements siding with Washington's Asia-Pacific pivot are likely to open up a Pandora's Box. Interestingly, the tabling of the controversial defence bill at the Japanese parliament was preceded by Abe's unprecedented speech at the US Congress two months ago and followed by a plunge in his regime's popular support in Japan to an all-time low.

Japan's former defence minister Yuriko Koike wrote before Abe's speech at the US Congress: "The Japan-US alliance is now 63 years old, but this will be the first time that (a) Japanese leader will be accorded this high honour from the American government and the people." While Koike did not mention, analysts point out that the reason for not asking any Japanese leader to address the US Congress was lack of political trust. They say despite the fact that Japan has been deemed the US's most important ally in Asia for a long time, Washington has never given such special privilege to Tokyo before.

German Chancellor Angela Markel and her predecessor Gerhard Schroder have both attended parades in Moscow to mark the end of the World War II. However, Merkel did not attend the event in Moscow this year because of Ukrainian crisis. Actually, she did so to strike a balance between the Russo-US tense relations, but the implication of Abe's refusal to attend the Beijing parade would be markedly different.

A Chinese commentator pointed out that Chinese President Xi Jinping will pay a visit to the United States in September next and the whole gamut of relations in the region and beyond will obviously feature in the discussions during the visit. Commemorating the end of World War II is indeed a cheerful event and all these will factor in the ties of the nations involved.

WHAT WILL BE IN ABE'S SPEECH ON AUGUST 15: Abe is scheduled to deliver a speech on August 15 next to mark the anniversary of the end of World War II. What he says on that day will also largely pave the way to mar or make the relations between Japan and China - the two Asian economic giants - beyond September. The countries of the Southeast Asia as well as Asia-Pacific region are apparently worried about the tensions in the Sino-Japan relations. Obviously, there is a strong drive amongst the ASEAN and Asia-Pacific nations for a smooth and relatively peaceful transition for economic development.

In this context, the keynote speech delivered by Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsieng Loong - the island nation's most successful leader late Lee Kuan Yew's son and an able leader in his own right - delivered at Shangri-La Dialogue on May 29, 2015 appears significant. On US-China ties, he pointed out "it is an open secret" that the US had reservations about the AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) and discouraged its close allies from participating. On the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership), he quipped that rules are being crafted to raise hurdles for China to join it and he was doubtful if other members of the group (that includes Singapore too) are also thinking in the same direction.  

Lee Hsieng Loong said: "The Cold War is long over; the Soviet Union has dissolved. Russia continues to participate in this region, but its focus is in Europe and it's near abroad, which means Central Asia and Eurasia. And in Asia, the key players are the United States and China…. Japan has not joined AIIB, but recently announced US$110 billion plan for public-private assistance for infrastructure development in Asia. Most Southeast Asian countries want Japan to play a more active role, but they do not want to get embroiled in rivalry between China and Japan."   

He said: "There is a strong drive and desire amongst ASEAN nations for a smooth and relatively peaceful transition from destructive Cold War rivalries to a prosperous and accommodating New World Order. As such ASEAN is playing a significant role in bringing regional and global leaders together and developing diverse framework of international cooperation. The ASEAN drive and desire for negotiating peace all around is patently missing from many parts of Asia and Africa."  

Lee Hsieng Loong was a brigadier in the Singapore army and was widely trained in the US and other elite military establishments in military strategy and geopolitics of the region before his father late Lee Kuan Yew goaded him to join politics. Before becoming the prime minister, he held a series of postings in the government after being duly elected to parliament and properly groomed under the senior Lee's tutelage. Despite being leader of a small country, his depth of knowledge and strategic insight has earned him respect in the region.

ABE'S ACHILLES' HEELS: The passage of the defence bill in parliament caused Abe's popularity to suffer a major jolt. According to a poll result published in the Mainichi Shimbum, public support for Abe's cabinet slumped to 35 per cent - lowest since he came to power at the end of 2012 and down seven point from two weeks before the passage of the bill.

As a fallout of this trend, Tokyo was forced to suspend construction of a contentious US air base in on the island of Okinawa for a month to discuss the issue between the government and the island authorities. Okinawa's governor Takeshi Onaga, who won the election last year largely on his stand against US bases in Okinawa, has openly accused prime minister Abe of "looking down on the island and its people."    

A Reuters news agency report from Tokyo on August 05 says: "The suspension of construction effectively takes the emotive issue off the table while the government pushes sensitive security bills through parliament."     The report also quoted political commentator Atsuo Ito as saying that Abe cannot take such a hard line on the Okinawa base now that his popularity had been hit by the security bills. "The government is really back into a corner," Ito said.

The central government is trying to be tactically flexible fishing for reciprocity from the island authority, but as Ito says, Okinawa governor is unlikely to back down much, so progress would be difficult.

The American military bases in Okinawa are a sensitive issue for the islanders. The residents fought a bloody war against the Americans towards the end of the World War II and have long been against the stationing of tens of thousands of US troops and huge US military installations occupying a fifth of the island's territory. The Okinawans have been against the US bases literally for generations.   

 [email protected]