China's foreign policy has emerged as a three-pronged multidimensional framework anchored by three ambitious global initiatives: the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, and the Global Civilisational Initiative. These strategic frameworks aim at reshaping global governance by strengthening China's political, economic, and cultural influence across the continents. With its strategic location at the crossroads of key maritime and trade routes, Bangladesh is a rising South Asian economy that will play a crucial role in Beijing's global agenda.
Bangladesh's balancing between China and India places it at the heart of a complex geopolitical matrix. The country's growing economy, its expanding trade networks, and the high needs for development are in tune with China's regional ambitions. However, this growing engagement is poised to provoke some pretty strong reactions from India, a regional power uneasy about China's rising presence in its neighbourhood. This article explores some of the strategic interests accompanying China's global overtures, their implications for its developing relations with Bangladesh, and India's concerns against the South Asian geopolitical landscape.
Global Development Initiative (GDI): The GDI was proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2021 to achieve sustainable development through economic partnership. It closely aligns with the UN's Sustainable Development Goals but with a peculiar Chinese approach that highlights South-South cooperation. The core pillars of the initiative include poverty reduction, food security, education, healthcare, and green development.
China's strategic objectives behind the GDI are to: Expand Economic Influence. Strengthen economic interdependency through the development of various infrastructure, energy, and logistics projects.
Build Trade Corridors: Acquire trade routes via developing countries like Bangladesh to gain unhindered access to global supply chains.
Counter Western Dominance: Offer a counter to existing Western-dominated structures and programs for economic development, like those proposed by the World Bank and IMF.
Impact on Bangladesh: Bangladesh will benefit economically from greater Chinese investment in its infrastructure, such as ports, railways, and energy projects. The involvement of China might accelerate the industrialisation and sustainable development of Bangladesh. Heavy reliance on Chinese funding could raise questions over debt sustainability, just as it has over other BRI projects.
Strategic Rivalry: Maintaining Balance of Power in the Region
India has traditionally seen China's growing footprint in South Asia, especially in Bangladesh, as a direct challenge to its regional dominance. The BRI, together with the development of ports like Payra and Chittagong, indicates a strategic aim at consolidation in the Bay of Bengal. India views this expansion as part of the "String of Pearls" strategy by China to encircle India through a network of strategically located ports and infrastructure. For example, as Bangladesh builds deeper economic and defence links with China, India can be expected to further bolster its own strategic outreach into the region by strengthening military-to-military relations with neighbours including Myanmar and Sri Lanka. This is fast evolving into an intricate game of geopolitics in the region.
Competing Development Models: India's Economic Response Indeed, Bangladesh's budding relationship with China brings in valuable economic dividends in terms of infrastructure development, trade facilitation, and direct investment. Chinese financing of transformative projects such as the Padma Bridge and Karnaphuli Tunnel has considerably cemented China's economic engagement with Bangladesh. In response, India will further increase its development aid and fast-track the long-impending projects of cross-border railways, energy cooperation, and trade infrastructure. India may also expand its economic corridor projects, including the India-Bangladesh-Nepal Connectivity Initiative, to counterbalance Chinese investments. This competition could accelerate development in Bangladesh, offering the country access to multiple development models while enhancing its negotiating power with both nations.
Reduced Indian Political Influence on Bangladesh: Bangladesh's increasing alignment with China could diminish India's political leverage in Dhaka, particularly if Chinese-backed infrastructure and defence projects deepen strategic cooperation. Historically, India has been the dominant player in Bangladesh's domestic and regional affairs, influencing its trade, water-sharing agreements, and security policies. With China's expanding influence through defence sales, port development, and diplomatic engagement, India risks losing its traditional stronghold. The balancing role of Bangladesh can thus decrease the unilateral influence of India, which may press New Delhi to take up a more conciliatory approach toward sensitive issues, such as the Teesta water-sharing agreement, trade tariffs, and border disputes. A robust relationship with China may position Bangladesh as an independent actor in the political and economic affairs of South Asia, pushing India toward more equitable and pragmatic negotiations.
Global Security Initiative (GSI): The GSI was proposed in 2022 with the purpose of changing the world's security architecture through multilateral cooperation, conflict resolution, and a policy of non-interference. This reflects China's ambition in shaping global security frameworks beyond the traditional US-led alliances such as NATO and the Quad.
China's strategic objectives include:
Expand Geopolitical Influence: Establish its role as a global security provider in the Asia-Pacific, South Asia, and beyond.
Deter Military Alliances: Balance US-led security partnerships, particularly in the Indo-Pacific.
Protect Strategic Routes: Secure critical maritime routes, like that of the Bay of Bengal, through regional security arrangements.
Impact on Bangladesh & South Asia: Bangladesh can become a regional security partner through maritime security agreements and military technology cooperation.
China's experience in counterterrorism and surveillance technologies might further solidify Bangladesh's domestic security apparatus. A strategic alignment with China would decrease Bangladesh's reliance on India and its Western security partnerships, thereby complicating its non-aligned foreign policy stance.
India, however, views any Bangladeshi alignment with China's security agenda as a direct threat to its strategic dominance in South Asia. Greater Chinese military cooperation in the Bay of Bengal may result in arms races or military build-ups in the region.
Global Civilisational Initiative (GCI): Launched in 2023, the GCI aims at building cross-cultural understanding, people-to-people exchanges, and a narrative of mutual respect among civilizations. This is China's soft power strategy to counter its alleged authoritarianism and clean its image before the world community.
China's goals are:
Global Leadership in Cultural Diplomacy: Place China as a cultural leader in the promotion of dialogue among civilisations.
Soft Power Expansion: Establish cultural ties through education, language programs, cultural exchanges, and media partnerships.
Narrative Control: Recast global narratives about China's political system and development model as culturally inclusive and globally beneficial.
Impact on Bangladesh: Bangladesh could benefit from scholarships, cultural exchanges, and Confucius Institutes promoting Chinese culture and language. Cultural tourism projects could expand Bangladesh's global appeal, enhancing economic opportunities. Bangladesh must ensure cultural partnerships with China do not overshadow its historic cultural ties with India or the West.
India, which prides itself on its ancient civilization and cultural diplomacy, may intensify its efforts to maintain cultural influence in Bangladesh. The competition for cultural influence could shape how South Asia is perceived globally, impacting educational, historical, and media narratives.
Trilateral Geopolitical Impact: The simultaneous implementation of China's three global strategies in Bangladesh could reshape the region's geopolitical dynamics in several key ways:
Strategic Tug-of-War: India's concerns about losing strategic influence in Bangladesh could intensify, prompting greater investment, diplomatic engagement, and defence partnerships.
Economic Competition: Bangladesh could leverage the competition between China and India to maximize development aid, trade agreements, and infrastructure investments.
Security Dilemmas: Greater Chinese security cooperation in Bangladesh may finally push India toward consolidating regional alliances with the US, Japan, and Australia through the Quad framework.
Cultural Rivalries. The competition in cultural diplomacy may redefine the historical narratives and cultural exchanges in South Asia, affecting regional unity and soft power influence.
Recommendations for Bangladesh: To navigate these complexities, Bangladesh should adopt a balanced foreign policy and maintain strategic neutrality by engaging with both China and India without jeopardising relations with either.
The country also needs to strengthen regional cooperation and promote multilateral dialogues through platforms like SAARC and BIMSTEC to mitigate rivalry-driven conflicts.
Bangladesh also needs to expand ties with the US, EU, and ASEAN to reduce overdependence on China and India.
Creating a unique Bangladeshi cultural narrative will also be necessary to further relations with both China and India.
Improving domestic infrastructure, financial resilience, and security capabilities to deal with external influences independently is another necessary task.
Strategic Window: The political situation in Bangladesh has created a narrow window of opportunity for the caretaker government to take relations with China to the next level. The timing is crucial, with India reportedly working to restore the political influence of former authoritarian Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina-a move that risks destabilising Bangladesh's fragile political balance. Strengthening relations with China might prove to be a stabilising factor that would provide Bangladesh with a strong counterbalance against possible Indian interference in its internal affairs. The continuous support that China has pledged toward economic development, investment in infrastructure, and non-interference policies corresponds with the strategic objectives of Bangladesh seeking political and economic stability.
History has often seen India behave in a hegemonic manner toward Bangladesh's political processes, leading to strains on diplomatic relations. Deepening relationships with China can decrease dependency upon India and allow Bangladesh to leverage greater economic and geopolitical authority. The BRI projects, trade partnerships, and infrastructure development between China and Bangladesh have already transformed Bangladesh's economy. Such expanded cooperation, on the back of reformist moves by a caretaker government would afford Bangladesh faster progress in national development with a lesser degree of vulnerability to political pressure from India.
Deepening engagement with China during a period of political transition can reorient the power dynamics in South Asia. A strategically aligned Bangladesh-China partnership would leave India with no option but to be more engaging in constructive diplomacy, especially on the resolution of pending bilateral issues related to water-sharing agreements and cross-border trade. As once said by Henry Kissinger, former U.S. Secretary of State, "In crisis, boldness is the safest option." Bangladesh's proactive diplomacy with China could thus pave the way for a more balanced, stable, and prosperous political future in South Asia.
Conclusion: Navigating a New Geopolitical Reality China's GDI, GSI, and GCI are rewriting the global power dynamics, especially in South Asia, where Bangladesh occupies a crucial geopolitical crossroads between two regional giants: China and India. These initiatives offer Bangladesh transformative economic, security, and cultural partnerships but also come with inherent complexities such as strategic dependency, regional rivalry, and cultural contestation. Successfully navigating this landscape will require a nuanced and pragmatic foreign policy that leverages Bangladesh's strategic location while balancing competing interests.
As the former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill once said, "The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees opportunity in every difficulty." Bangladesh needs to be optimistic but calculated, looking at China's initiatives as an opportunity, not a threat, for the advancement of its national development, regional security, and cultural identity on the global stage. Such a balancing act might just yield the much-needed infrastructure investments while strengthening its sovereignty in the face of increasing Sino-Indian competition.
More importantly, echoing the phrase of former U.S. President John F. Kennedy that "Let us never negotiate out of fear. But let us never fear to negotiate," Bangladesh has to engage both China and India assertively, extracting maximum economic and strategic value from both relationships. A pragmatic foreign policy that keeps Bangladesh neutral yet strategically aligned with major powers could position the country as a pivotal actor in South Asia's evolving geopolitical landscape. Bangladesh might maintain a flexible foreign policy-interest-driven, of course-in this era of shifting alliances around the world. Bangladesh's capability for doing so many mark the road to sustained growth, stability, and global recognition.
The Caretaker Government, under the farsighted leadership of Dr. Muhammad Yunus, is better placed to rally wider mass support for deeper strategic rapport with China. The approach also would not only counterbalance the political influence of India but would serve as a very strong stabilising force amid Bangladesh's evolving political landscape. Under existing geopolitical dynamics, this would be the best time to do so for Yunus, vindicating again the age-old insight by Winston Churchill: "To each, there comes a moment… a special moment when they are figuratively tapped on the shoulder to do a very special thing. What a tragedy if that moment finds them unprepared or unqualified for that which could have been their finest hour."
Dr Serajul I. Bhuiyan is professor and former chair of the Department of Journalism and Mass Communications at Savannah State University in Georgia, USA.
© 2024 - All Rights with The Financial Express
