Technological advances and environmental concerns are rapidly changing the energy landscape of the world. Renewable energy currently comprises more than 50 per cent of total primary energy and more than 90 per cent of electricity production in some countries. The energy policies of most countries have been updated to reflect this new reality, and Bangladesh should not be an exception.
Bangladesh has a number of major policy documents which make reference to the share of renewable energy in the energy mix, and the timeline for achieving this target. These policy documents include the Integrated Energy and Power Master Plan (IEPMP 2023), the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100, the Bangladesh Climate Prosperity Plan (MCCP 2023), the Perspective Plan of Bangladesh 2021-2041 (PP2041), the Eighth Five Year Plan (2020-2025) and the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). However, there is a lack of consistency among these policy documents. The first inconsistency is the types of technologies included under clean energy. The IEPMP includes not only modern variable renewables in the clean energy mix like wind and solar, it also includes carbon capture, liquid hydrogen and ammonia co-firing. In contrast, the Perspective Plan only mentions hydro, and has no mention of even existing renewable technologies in the energy mix like solar and wind. The delta plan mentions renewable energy in general and does not specify particular technologies. The MCCP and NDC primarily refer to solar and wind and renewable technologies.
The second incoherence is the target share of renewables and the date when the target will be reached. There is a very high variation in the target share of renewable energy among the policy documents. For example, the Perspective Plan 2021-2041mentions that renewable energy will be a key focus of its strategy but in its target of renewables it does not mention any contribution from modern renewable energy technologies like solar and wind, and only mentions a 1 per cent hydroelectricity target. The Eighth Five Year Plan mentions a target of 10 per cent by 2025. The delta plan sets a target of at least 30 per cent renewables by 2041. The BCCP presents various scenarios with targets of 30 per cent in 2030 and 40 per cent in 2041. On the other hand, the IEPMP does not expect modern variable renewables like solar and wind to comprise more than 20 per cent of electricity even in 2050, even though world leaders are targeting to make the world net zero carbon emission by 2050. The NDC specifies installed capacities of different renewable energy technologies by the year 2030. It targets the implementation of renewable energy projects of 911.8 MW, out of which there would be 581MW of grid-connected solar, 149 MW of wind, 20MW of biomass, 5MW of biogas, 56.8 MW of solar mini-grids, and 100 MW of new hydro. There would also be expansion of solar irrigation systems in agriculture, and energy efficiency measures in other sectors. In the conditional scenario, renewable energy projects of 4114.3 MW would be built, including 2277 MW of grid-connected solar, 597 MW of wind, 50 MW of biomass, 5 MW of biogas, 100 MW of new hydro, 56.8 MW of solar mini-grids, and 128.5 MW of waste-to-energy. There would also be the expansion of prepaid meters and reduction of transmission and distribution losses.
Different policy documents mention supporting measures to complement renewable energy like energy efficiency, energy storage, fossil fuel subsidy reform, grid upgrade, carbon pricing and carbon tax, and financial support for renewables. But there are differences in the policy documents.
Aside from inconsistency among the various documents with respect to renewable targets, there is also some overall inconsistency regarding the energy policy and the climate policy. Although there is an overall consensus among the various energy related policy documents that the future energy mix of Bangladesh should shift away from fossil fuels toward renewables, there is the assumption that renewable energy will always remain uncompetitive with fossil fuels with respect to cost, and require large tracts of uninhabited or unutilised land, which may be difficult for Bangladesh to provide. Therefore, the policy documents have been formulated with the assumption that fossil fuels will remain a major component of the energy mix in the foreseeable future.
Furthermore, although the importance of reducing emissions is recognised in all policies, the overall energy needs of the country are projected to grow along with economic growth. It is assumed that this growing need can be fulfilled primarily by fossil fuels, and so the different policy documents increase the absolute levels of fossil fuel-based power generation, while increasing the share of renewables. Increasing the absolute or relative share of fossil fuels does not achieve the goal of emission reduction.
Various government institutions engaged in policy making should have coordinated plans so that the policies are not contradictory, and can be operated in a compatible way. The first level of consistency should be in the primary policy documents of energy and climate, namely the IEPMP, the NDC, the Renewable Energy Policy and the Climate Prosperity Plan. Other development policy documents should reflect the projections, assumptions and targets of the primary documents, and refer to them for details.
Although there is the acknowledgement for the need of transitioning to a clean energy-based economy, the actual capacity installation targets still include more fossil fuels in absolute quantities. Therefore, it is inevitable that emissions will increase if more fossil fuel-based energy is used. As technological and energy market realities change at a fast and unpredictable rate, Bangladesh should not commit itself to significant levels of fossil fuel capacity in preparation for the coming decades. This is because renewables can become more cost-effective than fossil fuels before the useful life of the fossil fuel power plants is over, resulting is stranded assets. Alternatively, fuel prices can increase unpredictably, or supplies can be restricted, making operating fossil fuel-based power plants impractical or unprofitable.
Renewable energy capacity-additions worldwide have been surpassing the capacity addition of fossil-based power plants since 2014 and recently annual new renewable power capacity additions have been more than 80 per cent of the total annual new power generation capacity additions of the world. Renewables have been growing more cost-competitive, and have even become the cheapest source of electricity in many countries. The recent price trend shows that modern renewables will become the cheapest source of electricity in Bangladesh.
The renewable energy targets primarily focus on the electricity sector, and there is little attention to the transport, buildings, industrial processes, and heating and cooling sectors. These sectors also consume a large share of the energy and are responsible for emissions. Therefore, any energy policy document must include these sectors within the targets for the incorporation of renewable energy, with detailed policy and technological guidelines. We are now seeing the steady electrification of the transport and cooking sectors, with the increase of small-scale and locally developed technologies, like battery operated small vehicles or EVs and induction stoves. Electrification of vehicles and appliances makes it technologically more feasible to incorporate renewables into these sectors. Therefore, these developments should be proactively mapped into the future energy scenarios, and renewable energy targets should have comprehensive multi-sector coverage.
Shahriar Ahmed Chowdhury is Director, Centre for Energy Research United International University. shahriar.ac@gmail.com
Dr Shakila Aziz is Assistant Professor, School of Business and Economics United International University