"If we do not co-operate with each other, we will be in trouble. Threat from the climate change is serious that may led to prolong natural disaster," he said, adding, "Our combined action is a must to ensure food security in the region."
The head of the Islamabad-based think-tank was in Dhaka to attend the Fourteenth South Asia Economic Summit (SAES XIV). He further added that there are a number of policy crises across the globe affecting South Asia too.
"Ukrain-Russia war coupled with the Middle-East crisis has disrupted the global supply chain for food and energy," Suleri explained saying, "Europe's dependence on Russian energy has come under challenge. Many countries are now trying to de-risk with trade partners especially China to reduce the risk of volatility by restricting financial transactions and trade."
The development thinker particularly expressed concern over the risks of climate change which has emerged as quite a big problem in South Asia.
"Recent severe flood in Pakistan is an example and the region also has experienced severe heat wave and draught," said Suleri. "All these have threatened the agriculture sector and food production. So, countries like India imposed food export restriction by enhancing the export tax to manage the domestic food supply", he added.
Again, geo-political tension is also growing and the region is not out of the disturbance, he opined.
"The ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict has intensified after the attack of Hamas on October 7 as Israel declares war pushing the Middle-East into deep crisis," he continued. "It has also cast shadow on the planned India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor announced at the G20 Summit in September."
The proposed sea and rail route is believed to give a global focus to the ancient trade route from India to Egypt.
"The rise of China and its growing assertion to break the hegemony of the US-centric unipolar world to make it a bipolar world is also there," he further added.
"All these geo-political-economic shiftings have both positive and negative effects on the region," said Suleri and also added, "The countries in South Asia are also no more maintaining non-partisan positions. For instance, India openly supports Israel while Bangladesh and Pakistan favour peaceful two-state solution."
Besides the external turmoil, the region has its own domestic tensions also.
"In the next year or 2024, the region will enter into the year of election, also termed by many as year of democracy," Suleri said. "National election will take place in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The outcome of these elections will be critical for the region."
Regarding the current status of regional cooperation, the economist said that people in South Asia continue to meet and talk no matter how inactive the SAARC is.
"The regional forum may be dysfunctional, but the SAARC secretariat is still there, other SAARC institutions are also there, and so there is still hope," he added. "If there was no institution, it was not possible to move. SAARC calls for shared prosperity and so today, we need to stand together when we are facing existential threat."
In reply to a question regarding the multilateral trade regime, Dr Suleri said that The World Trade Organisation (WTO) is another SAARC now.
"Nevertheless, WTO should be there, as the multilateral trade rule making body it has to exist," he said. "It is true that the lack of consensus among the members on various issues has turned the organisation almost into a non-functional one. But, if you abandon the organisation, there will be no consensus among the countries on trade rules."
Suleri also added that one big problem now is that the United States has blocked the appointment and reappointment of appellate judges of the Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) of the WTO. "So the DSB becomes inactive as the minimum number of judges required is not there."
When asked about the latest decision of the WTO General Council on the extension of support measures for graduating Least Developed Countries (LDCs), the development thinker expressed a mix reaction.
"As the LDC group in the WTO has been enjoying various trade concessions, Bangladesh is a beneficiary of the system and gets a lot of advantages," he said. "The concessions also help the country to enhance its capacity and become competitive in the long-run. However, prolong reliance on concessions many induce inefficiency and non-competitive attitude."
"Twenty years ago, Bangladesh required the trade preferences and concessions to support the country's economic activities," Suleri added further. "Now, the country is set to be graduated from the LDC category which reflects its economic strength and social advancement."
Dr. Suleri was of the view that after graduation, Bangladesh should not think to rely on some extended concessions for some more years as the protective nature will not help the country to move ahead amid global competition.
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