Competitive democracy touches the Indian horizon

The opposition obituaries had been written. According to most polls, India's election was a foregone conclusion. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's right-wing, Hindu-nationalist alliance was expected to secure a super majority, and with it the power to enact radical change unopposed. To Modi's critics and opponents, India was on the fast track to becoming a de-facto one-party state.

However, as Trump's victory of 2016, Brexit and countless other upsets of recent years have shown, opinion polls and analysts can often get it spectacularly wrong.

Going into this election, Modi had set a goal of winning 400 seats in the lower house of parliament, or Lok Sabha. But as results began to trickle in Tuesday night, it quickly became clear his ruling Bhartiya Janata Party wouldn't even have enough to form a simple majority.

Instead, for the first time since coming to power a decade ago, Modi will have to be reliant on longstanding local coalition partners to keep him in government. In what opposition parties have declared as a victory for pluralism, voters in the world's largest democracy partially rejected Modi's populist vision for a Hindu-first nation, reducing the BJP's share of the vote by 63 seats - bringing its total down to 240, far below the 272 required for a parliamentary majority. BJP's coalition partners secured 52 seats.

The opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) alliance led by Rahul Gandhi's centrist Congress party won 230 seats, more than forecast. Congress alone won 99, almost double the 52 it won in 2019 -- a surprise jump that is expected to boost Gandhi's standing.

Political analyst P. B. Mehta has indicated that the BJP's inability to secure an outright majority has somewhat "pricked the bubble of Modi's authority," and Modi is "not the indomitable vehicle for History … Today, he is just another politician, cut to size by the people. He will have to tread carefully'

However, Modi's latest victory in the Indian polls has made him the first leader since India's Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru to secure a third five-year term. It also needs to be referred to that since assuming power in 2014, Modi has attained levels of popularity not seen in decades, owing to a raft of development and welfare programmes, mixed with a strident brand of Hindu nationalism in a country where about 80 per cent of the population are followers of that polytheistic faith.

Analyst Rhea Mogul of CNN has pointed out that a decade of Modi's governance has led to growing religious polarisation, with denotations of Islamophobia not only affecting a large section of India's more than 200 million Muslims but also religious violence flaring up in a nation with a long history of communal tensions.

Under Modi's leadership, the country of 1.4 billion people has become the world's fastest-growing major economy and a modern global power, making strides in technology and space. Nevertheless, on the other hand, despite these successes, poverty and youth unemployment persist, particularly in rural areas, and the wealth gap has widened.

As results of the BJP's shock losses became clear on June 4, Modi took to the stage outside his Party's headquarters. Showered with rose petals, adorned with a massive garland, and speaking over chants of "Modi! Modi! Modi!" he made no admission of defeat. "Today is a glorious day," he thundered. "The NDA is going to form the government for the third time," he said in reference to the right-wing BJP-led coalition the National Democratic Alliance. And while there is no doubt the NDA's grouping of smaller local parties will come together with the BJP to form a government, the election will remain a reality check for the popular leader.

The third term for Modi could build on a decade of his diplomatic ambitions. The 73-year-old Hindu nationalist leader and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has been pushing for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, and has also been courted by the United States and European allies as a counterweight to China. India, the world's fifth-largest and fastest-growing major economy, is a favourite of Western leaders. Modi has used India's holding of the G20 presidency in 2023 to burnish his image abroad, and is now hoping to build on hosting the 2036 Summer Olympics.

The Prime Minister and his coalition government will continue to receive respect from developed countries. This latest electoral process will underline for most countries how the world's most populated country can have a fair election. This in fact will increase his world stature and that of India.

One needs to recall that US President Joe Biden hosted Modi for a state dinner last year and called ties with India the "defining partnership of the 21st century". In February, Washington also approved a US Dollar 4 billion sale of state-of-the-art drones to India, the latest bolster to India's defence as a counterbalance to neighbouring China. That deepening of ties has come despite rights groups sounding the alarm about threats to India's democracy and increased discrimination towards the 200-million-plus Muslim minority.

India also has strong ties with European countries. With France, it hopes to expand multi-billion-US Dollar deals including the sale of Rafale fighter jets and Scorpene-class submarines.

Relations between the world's two most populous countries-- India and China slumped in 2020 after their troops fought a deadly high-altitude skirmish along their 3,500 kilometre (2,200-mile) frontier. Tens of thousands of troops from the nuclear-armed Asian giants still continue today to carefully monitor each other and territorial claims remain a perennial source of tension. Modi's right-wing government has pumped billions of US dollars into border infrastructure and boosted military spending by 13 per cent last year. However, it is still barely a quarter of China's. This is one dimension but the other side of the coin is that despite their rivalry, China is India's second-largest trade partner.

New Delhi and Moscow have ties dating back to the Cold War and Russia remains by far the biggest arms supplier for India. It has also shied away from explicit condemnation of Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, abstained on UN resolutions censuring Moscow, and snapped up cut-price Russian crude oil supplies. Modi in March also congratulated President Vladimir Putin on his re-election, adding that he was looking forward to developing their "special" relationship. After this election that is likely to take place. Putin has apparently already conveyed his congratulations to Modi.

One also needs to refer to Modi's interactive engagement with the Global South. Modi has also projected India as a key member of the BRICS club of emerging economies, and has recently called New Delhi "a strong and important voice of the Global South". It was under Modi's watch that the African Union bloc joined the G20, with India arguing developing nations need a greater say in global decision-making.

Very astutely our Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has conveyed her congratulations to Modi on behalf of herself and the people of Bangladesh for winning a third term. This result, according to her, reflected the confidence the people of India have reposed in his leadership, commitment and unwavering dedication for the country. She has also assured that Bangladesh, as a trusted friend of India, will continue to work together for the betterment of the people of the two countries as well as for a prosperous and peaceful region. Our Foreign Minister has also expressed the hope that the bilateral relations between Bangladesh and India will reach new heights. It has also been hinted that we hope to see the resolution of some of the outstanding issues that still remain within the bilateral dimension.

One aspect requiring personal attention of Mr. Modi and his new coalition government will be tackling the serious impact of climate change in the region and the emergence of heat waves that have been witnessed over the past two weeks in India and also in Bangladesh. One may recall that the year 2022 was called the hottest summer ever. That year, it was so hot in India that it broke the 122-year-old record. Then came 2023, when the summer season was so scorching hot that scientists said it was the hottest summer in the last 2,000 years in the northern hemisphere. After that came the year 2024. From January to June, all months were recorded as the hottest months ever. In the Indian state of Uttarakhand, there were forest fires. In the first week of May, forest fires were seen in states like Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Jharkhand. Heat wave warnings were being issued all over the country, even in places like the southern Indian state of Kerala, where, until recently, heat waves were seldom recorded. The newly elected Indian government has to understand that the pervasive heat waves are putting the country's poor in dire straits. Roadside laborers are dying, and thousands of acres of crops are withering in the heat, affecting millions of people in India's agriculture sector. Such an impact has also been seen in Bangladesh.

Climatologists have indicated that they hope all the important political parties will consider climate change as significant. The Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) has highlighted the importance of fossil fuel reduction for electricity generation. The main opposition party, Indian National Congress has claimed in its manifesto that it will address the issues of environment and climate change with some seriousness. The Communist Party of India has pledged for the promotion of renewable energy, such as solar and wind, if voted to power. This approach is good and must remain above politics.

We need to wait and see what happens. However, one can only hope for the best.

Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador, is an analyst specialised in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance.

[email protected]