Political uncertainty has been gripping Bangladesh and hurting its economy for a long time. This has been highlighted by the press, intellectuals and think-tanks off and on. This writer also wrote about it in several articles. In fact, all conscious citizens have become aware of the heavy toll of such a political uncertainty. Those who run the country also understand the gravity of the situation. But, initiatives to stem the rot are found to be lacking.
The economy of Bangladesh has been doing well over the years. It has, however, been stagnated in growth and investment over last one decade. The economy is revolving round 6 per cent GDP (gross domestic product) growth and 26 per cent investment. Private sector investment could not exceed 18 per cent over the same period. The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) released a report on January 03, 2014 which gave a vivid picture of the economy. CPD's Distinguished Fellow Debapriya Bhattacharya and its Executive Director Mustafizur Rahman made many interesting revelations. They said private investment remained stagnant due to political uncertainly. There was a relatively calm political situation after January 05, 2014 parliamentary election but, that could not remove investors' doubts. It was estimated that while private investment remained sluggish, a large amount of capital was siphoned off which, in monetary terms, was higher than the net foreign aid.
On huge remittance outflow, the CPD disclosed that at present, Bangladesh is the fifth largest source of remittances for India, with around $3.7 billion sent in 2013 alone. Most of India's workers work in readymade garment and textile industries and non-governmental organisations. Many of them reportedly work without proper permission and documents. The CPD termed all these as warning signals. They called for investigation by the Board of Investment (BOI) and the Bangladesh Bank into such huge outflow of remittance.
The CPD also mentioned some other challenges which included implementation of the Annual Development Programme (ADP), shortfall in revenue collection, recapitalisation of the state-owned banks, defaulting bank loans, remittance outflow to India, etc.
It is quite natural that Bangladesh needs huge investment. The CPD has echoed this necessity. The labour market is getting about two million new entrants every year. Job creation is the most important task facing the government today. It is obvious that without acceleration of private investment and economic growth, creation of jobs for such a large number of new entrants will be difficult. Apart from providing infrastructure facilities and gas and electricity, the CPD has stressed conducive political environment to stimulate private investment. It duly considered the prevailing political situation in the country.
Dr Debapriya said, "We see that the space for political co-existence and freedom of expression are getting more squeezed since the beginning of the year. On the other hand, fear of rising terrorist activities has also increased". The CPD suggested that a conducive political environment that generates confidence among entrepreneurs and inclusive politics which ensures business-friendly environment are necessary to stimulate private sector investment and regain the growth momentum.
When we listen to the TV talk-shows, read articles in newspapers and hear the statements of intellectuals, we observe that all concerned speak for a conducive political environment. But that remains only a dream.
The political situation in Bangladesh over the last few days has brought to the fore a tense atmosphere. A scheduled public meeting of Khaleda Zia, chairperson of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), at Gazipur could not be held as it was opposed by the ruling party. Tension mounted in the country over the observance of 'Victory Day of Democracy' by the ruling party and 'Democracy Killing Day' by the BNP-led 20-party Alliance on January 05. The government came to power through the controversial parliamentary election on January 5, 2014, which was boycotted by the BNP, the main opposition party, and its allies. Both sides announced public meetings and rallies on the same day, January 05, in Dhaka. The opposition did not getting permission for holding the public meeting. At one stage on January 04, the Dhaka Metropolitan Police promulgated Section 144 (a punitive measure under criminal procedure code) banning all meetings, rallies and processions within Dhaka metropolitan area. The intention was to save the lives and property of the citizens. BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia was virtually confined in her Gulshan Office on Saturday night. She has since been in such a state in that office. The law enforcers locked the main gate from outside and barred Begum Khaleda Zia from leaving that office for a planned rally marking the 'Democracy Killing Day" on January 05. Police fired pepper spray to disperse party activists at her office gate. In this incident, she was also affected and has reportedly been suffering.
After the police action, the former prime minister called a countrywide blockade for an indefinite period from January 06, 2015 to protest the government's action of not allowing her party and its allies to hold rallies in the capital and elsewhere, her confinement at Gulshan office and to demand a fresh general election under a non-party caretaker government. The law-enforcing agency beefed up security by placing 12 trucks loaded with sand and bricks on the way to the BNP Chairperson's office on Sunday midnight. Three police trucks, three armoured personnel carriers and cannons were also placed around her office. Later, the trucks of sand and bricks were shifted.
On January 05, 2015 violent clashes erupted in many districts of the country. The clashes left at least four people dead and over 300 injured throughout the country. Several Awami League and BNP offices were vandalised and burnt. Over a dozen vehicles were torched and many were smashed. Dawn-to-dusk hartal were observed in some districts. On January 06, about 17 vehicles were torched and many more were vandalised across the country. The road communication has been snapped all over the country. Trucks now cannot ply with merchandises. Certainly these incidents are causing losses to the economy and hampering public life.
In such a situation, one cannot expect that investors, foreign and local, will come forward to invest and boost the economy. The confidence of the investors is sure to be shaken. In order to come out of this situation, everybody is suggesting a dialogue among political parties for a peaceful solution to this cancerous politics. People want a solution that will save democracy and economy of the country which, in turn, will bring into being a liveable society. A conducive political environment is now the crying need of the hour.
The writer is an economist and columnist.
chowdhuryjafar@ymail.com