The focus of everyone in Bangladesh is on what role India would play in the initiative of the international powers (USA/UK) and organisations (EU and UN) and a number of other countries to push the AL-led government towards a negotiated settlement of the current political crisis through dialogue with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). In fact, most people in the country are of the opinion that the initiative would be successful only if India became a part of it.
India has remained aloof from the initiative publicly. However, a few recent developments indicate that India may not be as aloof as perceived and in contact with the Bangladesh government over the present political situation in the country outside the public gaze. The first of these developments concerns the proposed visit of the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Dhaka. The second is related to the row that occurred in Melbourne during the Bangladesh-Indian quarterfinal match. The latest development is the incident at the Dhaka airport where the customs officials seized US$ 38,000 from an Indian diplomat, posted in Dhaka, while he was travelling to Kolkata.
Narendra Modi was initially scheduled to come to Dhaka at the time of Independence Day celebrations. In fact, the AL-led government would have been happy if the Indian Prime Minister visited Dhaka soon after the massive victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Indian national elections in May last year. The ruling party needed to be assured that the BJP government would stand behind it the same way the Congress had done that had backed it whole heartedly to hold the controversial January 05, 2014 elections against national and international opposition. Subsequently, the Congress government had also defended the AL-led government against international criticisms on the issue of legitimacy until it was trounced in the Indian elections.
Narendra Modi has visited Bhutan, Nepal and, most recently, Sri Lanka upon becoming Prime Minister 10 months ago. He is yet to visit Bangladesh. At first, Bangladesh's official circles mentioned that Narendra Modi would come to Dhaka only after he was certain that he could deliver to Bangladesh the Teesta and the LBA (land boundary agreement) agreements. These officials also stated that Mamata Banerjee was holding up both the deals and that New Delhi was in consultation with her, a view that was also held by New Delhi. Thus Bangladesh President Abdul Hamid visited Kolkata and met Mamata Banerjee in a most unusual diplomatic initiative to "soften" her attitude. Finally, Bangladesh invited Mamata Banerjee to Dhaka last month for the same reason.
Mamata Banerjee not just "cleared" the two deals in Dhaka, she also offered to become the honest broker in resolving other "thorny" issues in Bangladesh-India relations. She stated in Dhaka that she would meet Narendra Modi upon her return to India and thereafter New Delhi would deliver the deals to Dhaka. She met Narendra Modi as scheduled on March 09. The Modi-Mamata meeting instead of expediting the delivery of the deals underlined that Mamata Banerjee never had any legal/constitutional right to hold back the deals because the two did not even discuss the deals in their meeting except very casually. She was able to hold up delivery of the deals during the term of the Congress-led UPA government by threatening to use Trinamool Congress's (TMC) 20 seats in the Lok Sabha to bring it down and not because she had the legal or constitutional powers to do so. The TMC was a part of the Congress led-UPA (United Progressive Alliance) government and its 20 seats were enough to make the government fall.
The Mamata-Modi meeting has finally established that the BJP government does not need help from any party, least of all the TMC, which is now politically impotent in the Centre to help or harm Bangladesh's interests. Narendra Modi could have come to Dhaka for the National Day celebrations and handed the deals if he had the political will to do so. It is therefore an ominous sign for the AL-led government that he did not come because it suggests that his government is not following the footsteps of the Congress-led government in pursuing relations with Bangladesh.
Cricket provided the other hint that the BJP-led government is following a different course that the Congress-led government vis-à-vis the Awami League. The statement of the Bangladesh Planning Minister, who is also president of the International Cricket Council (ICC), over the umpiring decision in the quarterfinal match between Bangladesh and India at the World Cup Cricket was an unbelievable one. He called the ICC the 'Indian Cricket Council' and alluded that India had used its influence over the ICC to make the on-field umpires give critical decisions, particularly the one concerning Rohit Sharma, in favour of India in a pre-mediated manner to defeat Bangladesh. The statement not just humiliated the umpires, who deserved it, but the conspiracy theory also humiliated India. An Indian, Naranyanswami Srinivasan, is currently the chairman of the ICC who wields real power of the ICC where the president's post is merely a titular one.
The third indication that the BJP government is not looking at Dhaka as the Congress did came from the way an Indian diplomat in its High Commission in Dhaka was physically searched and US$ 38,000 seized from him in Dhaka Airport. The customs officials at the airport also released the news to the media. The Indian diplomat as a serving diplomat in Dhaka has immunity from all forms of search by Bangladesh's authorities and most of all from recovering any amount of money he may be carrying on his person under the Vienna Convention of Diplomatic Relations. Yet he was searched and the money seized from him and over it all, the diplomatic violation was released in the media that embarrassed India.
The ICC president and the custom officials have done what they did in full knowledge that it would embarrass New Delhi and make it unhappy. Neither emotions, as in the case of the ICC president nor mistake as in the case of the customs officials concerning the Indian diplomat explains the two actions. The reason for the two actions lies elsewhere.
The AL-led government made no secret that it wanted the support of the Modi government like the Congress-led government from the very first day Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister. It waited nearly a year but New Delhi did not warm to it the way it wanted. In fact, as it waited, international pressure upon it to negotiate with the BNP and hold fresh elections began to build up. That pressure has become extremely strong following the widespread violence after January 05 this year when the BNP/Jamaat started their hartal/blockade. And with the increasing international pressure, the AL-led government's desperation for New Delhi to stand by its side enhanced significantly that New Delhi ignored.
The ICC president's statement to implicate India's good name in the cricket controversy and the action against the Indian diplomat in violation of diplomatic immunity in fact underline that New Delhi has ignored Dhaka's desperation for it to stand behind it. As a consequence, the AL-led government, unbelievably, played the "India card" to cash upon the wave of anti-Indian sentiments in Bangladesh for a wide number of reasons. The use of the "India card", in addition to underlining Dhaka's impatience and frustration with New Delhi, could also suggest that New Delhi, instead of standing by the side of the AL, may be discussing Bangladesh's current political predicament with the US, the EU and the UN.
New dates in April are being touted for Narendra Modi's Dhaka visit. Personal problems of Shahsi Tharoor in whose hands, as the chairman of the parliamentary committee, the issue of LBA ratification rests are being mentioned for delay in the LBA ratification. These notwithstanding, the inordinate delay in Narendra Modi's visit to Dhaka, cricket controversy and diplomatic row are pointing at growing differences between Dhaka and New Delhi.
The writer is a former Ambassador. [email protected]
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