On the morning after the budget, Salma Begum unlocked her small grocery shop in Jatrabari as the radio replayed fragments of the finance minister's speech. She paid little attention to the headline figure. Instead, her focus remained on the price of a litre of soybean oil, her son's college fees, and the interest on a loan for her small business, all far removed from the trillions discussed in Parliament. Like her, most citizens see a budget not as what is announced in Parliament but as what it means at a shop counter, a classroom, and a hospital bed over the next twelve months. Since the speech, as economists and business chambers scrutinised the fine print, the conversation has rightly shifted from the size of the promise to how to keep it.
GRAND AMBITION, HARD ARITHMETIC: The FY2026-27 budget, presented on June 11 by the finance minister, is the largest in Bangladesh's history. At Tk 9.38 trillion (lakh crore), or 13.7 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), it represents a 19 per cent expansion over the revised budget of the previous year. On the road to a trillion-dollar economy by 2034, it sets an optimistic target of 6.5 per cent GDP growth and 7.5 per cent inflation.
The heart of this historic blueprint is unmistakably people-centric. Education spending is surging to Tk 1.36 trillion (roughly 2 per cent of GDP), while health funding nearly doubles to Tk 694.09 billion. The social safety net expands to Tk 1.44 trillion, anchored by a flagship Family Card paying Tk 2,500 a month to 4.10 million women-headed households. For ordinary consumers, withholding tax on sixty essential commodities, from rice and edible oil to onions and sugar, falls from up to 5 per cent down to a uniform 0.5 per cent, while the tax-free income threshold climbs to Tk 375,000. These macro choices speak directly to Salma Begum's needs at that shop counter.
Ambition, however, must be matched by arithmetic. In its June 12 review, the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) noted that the 6.5 per cent growth target contrasts with a provisional growth rate of only 4.14 per cent. Reaching that goal would require domestic investment to become far more productive quickly. The bigger challenge is private investment. The budget projects only a slight rise, from 21.2 per cent to 21.3 per cent of GDP, but even that modest increase would require an additional Tk 1.65 trillion in private capital. With private-sector credit growing at just 4.75 per cent against a 9.4 per cent target, the gap between ambition and reality is clear. This may not be a fatal flaw in the budget but highlights where the delivery plan must be strongest.
EARNING THROUGH SUSTAINABLE REFORM: The single most consequential number in the budget is the revenue target. The National Board of Revenue (NBR) must collect Tk 6.04 trillion. Given that collections previously hovered around Tk 3.69 trillion and are tracking towards roughly Tk 4.0 trillion this cycle, the state must find an extra Tk 2.0 trillion in 12 months.
Tax professionals are clear about the challenge. One expert noted that sources of this incremental revenue remain unclear. Bangladesh has about 12.8 million registered taxpayers, but only about 4 million file income tax returns. The credible path forward cannot involve squeezing the same compliant shops or salaried workers harder. That would deepen the unfairness people like Salma Begum already feel. Instead, the NBR must pull the untaxed economy into the net. Scaling up quarterly online VAT returns, expanding digital invoicing, and tightening mandatory identification linked to bank accounts are ways to do this.
The budget's most contested provision deserves an honest word. The decision to allow undisclosed income tied to land and flat transactions to be regularised has been defended by NBR. They see it as a narrow disclosure mechanism to address distorted property records, not a blanket amnesty. A credible revenue strategy must treat these schemes as a one-time correction of property valuation records, not a recurring habit.
THE EXECUTION GAP: If raising funds is the steepest hill, spending them efficiently is the most critical test. This is where the finance minister's candour is refreshing. He openly acknowledged that development spending in the first ten months reached a dismal 40.7 per cent of the program, an admission rarely made in a budget speech.
This gridlock repeats at the top. Of the 20 flagship mega-projects holding nearly a fifth of the development budget, none are expected to finish on schedule. Rooppur is at 68.3 per cent completion after nearly a decade, while a vital metro line is at 5.8 per cent after six years. Even more telling, the number of projects with a 'token allocation' of a lakh taka or less has climbed to 77. This indicates that the project pipeline is cluttered with entries that lack genuine financial commitment for the current cycle.
The remedy is not more money but more discipline. It points to a clear direction: fewer projects finished faster. Spreading a Tk 3 trillion development programme across more than a thousand projects virtually guarantees slow progress. Instead, concentrating those funds on works ready with land or resources acquired and designs finalised would better stimulate the economy.
The deeper fix is to pay for outcomes rather than invoices. Each disbursement should be tied directly to a functioning clinic, a trained teacher, or a completed section of road, all of which are verified and recorded digitally. India offers a working template for the "Direct Benefit Transfer" system, which routes welfare straight into bank accounts, saving documented Rs 3.48 trillion by eliminating leakages and ghost beneficiaries. Bangladesh's own Farmer Card initiatives reach 4.1 million women and 4.25 million marginal farmers via mobile banking. Built on this digital logic, these targeted programmes could become the most efficient use of money this state has ever made.
FINANCING WITHOUT A SAFETY NET: One vital feature of this budget has drawn less attention than it deserves: the government intends to finance a Tk 2.43 trillion deficit, 3.6 per cent of GDP, by relying on roughly $11 billion in foreign assistance. Notably, it plans to do this without an IMF programme. This is a bold statement of confidence. It carries real advantages, sparing the country a fresh round of externally imposed austerity conditions.
But walking away from the fund also removes a crucial cushion. Financing this layout relies heavily on foreign borrowing of Tk 1.55 trillion. Much of this is concessional. This approach limits domestic bank borrowing to Tk 1.12 trillion. Such restraint may leave vital banking liquidity for factory owners in Narayanganj or software founders in Banani. But concessional dollars arrive on the lender's timetable, not ours. By forgoing an IMF backstop, our internal delivery plan must remain flawless.
Health services, education stipends, and safety-net disbursements must be ring-fenced as untouchable regardless of the quarter. These are the lines that reach Salma Begum's family directly.
Physical infrastructure, by contrast, can breathe: works nearing completion that unlock immediate returns receive funding first, while long-term projects can be paced against actual quarterly revenue collections. The Tk 600 billion stimulus package, with its 6 per cent interest subsidy and promise of 2.50 million jobs, can powerfully amplify this momentum. However, it will only succeed if credit flows through the banking sector on pure commercial merit rather than political connection. This is not a retreat; it is the discipline required to protect the budget's promises from the risks that underlie them.
For Salma Begum, success will not be measured in trillions or lakh crores. It will be measured by the real-world cost of restocking her shelves, the quality of her son's education, and the actual affordability of credit to expand her business. The FY27 budget provides the government with both the resources and the mandate to address these ground realities. What the state must now ensure is the unforgiving standard of execution: honest targets, digital pipelines, finished projects, and the courage to prioritise. If it succeeds, this budget will be remembered not only as the largest in our nation's history, but as the one that finally taught us how to deliver.
Dr Sabbir Ahmad is an engineering and corporate leader with extensive global experience in digital connectivity, energy infrastructure, and sustainable development. sabbir@ieee.org
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