Donald Trump, in his landslide victory in the 2024 United States (US) presidential election, opened a bold new chapter in American politics and marked an unprecedented return to the White House after having first held that office from 2016 to 2020. Throughout his previous presidency, Trump's transformative policies reshaped America's approach to economic growth, immigration reform, and foreign relations that defined his controversial yet impactful legacy. Now that he is back in office, the country is primed to see fresh changes in those important arenas. This article reflects on the first presidency of Trump by analytically reviewing his successes, controversies, and the policies from his first administration that set the stage for the current one. Drawing on expert analysis, this piece examines the economic policy, immigration, foreign affairs, and U.S.-Asia relations implications of a Trump second term.
ECONOMIC POLICY: Economic revitalisation has always been at the heart of Trump's platform. During the first term, he had been looking to cut taxes, deregulate major sectors of industry, and spur domestic manufacturing. Perhaps one of the most enduring aspects of the TCJA of 2017 was the slashes to corporate tax rates from 35 per cent to 21 per cent. Supporters argue this, along with deregulation efforts in industries like energy and manufacturing, sparked economic growth and strengthened consumer and investor confidence. In 2018, the American economy posted a 2.9 per cent increase. Unemployment fell to a two-generation low until the COVID-19 pandemic began to grip the United States in 2020. Larry Kudlow, the former director of the National Economic Council called them "a renaissance for American industry." But the tax cuts also set off debate over their long-term consequence for the national deficit, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating they would add $1.9 trillion to the debt over a decade. The giveaways largely benefited the wealthiest investors, critics like Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman said. Trump, voters have returned to the White House by 2024, had pledged to take these reforms a notch further by adopting pro-business policies. As per various analyses, he is expected to declare further tax incentives to the domestic industries and rollbacks in regulations that would give a fillip to technology, energy, and manufacturing. As Trump goes all guns blazing on jobs and economic sovereignty, it appears that the "America First" economic policy remains intact.
IMMIGRATION POLICY: Immigration reform was one of the most salient policies in Trump's agenda, which he made the core of his platform; he derives this policy from his concentration on national security and economic stability. In his first term, he set striking policies regarding the establishment of a border wall, the "zero tolerance" policy, and restrictive visa reforms. The Trump wall ended up becoming symbolic of his aggressive stance regarding illegal immigration, with over 400 miles done by the end of his first term in office. His "zero tolerance" policy separated families at the border, an action that has been roundly condemned by groups such as Amnesty International due to its ethical and humanitarian implications. In his second presidency, Trump promised to continue building the wall, expanding policies aimed at tightening asylum rules, and putting more stringent vetting into place for visa applications. As some analysts, including the Migration Policy Institute, said, the likely focus of Trump's policy would be to make legal immigration answer the needs of the U.S. labor market as he grounds his economic program. Trump's immigration reform is likely to highlight security and increase the finances of Homo domestically, establishing him as the unshrinking protector of American sovereignty and economic interest.
FOREIGN POLICY: The "America First" foreign policy of Trump, signaling the primacy of national sovereignty and a cautious approach to multilateral alliances, marked a distinct departure from traditional diplomacy. His demands that NATO allies bear more of the defense burden led to increased funding from the member states. Richard Haass with the Council on Foreign Relations admonished that this line would eventually alienate our allies, but his boosters say Trump's stance strengthened the principle in NATO responsibility. Trump's first term also saw the U.S. pull out of a series of international agreements, including, among others, the Paris Climate Accord and the Iran nuclear deal, which underlined his suspicion toward multinational commitments. In his 2024 return, Trump would likely go full throttle with these policies that stress U.S. independence in foreign affairs. With this, analysts predict a new focus on the renegotiation of trade, particularly with regard to China. "The aim will be to fashion terms favorable for American industries and pare down the deficit in trade." said Bonnie Glaser, an Asia policy expert. Trump favors bilateral deals over binding global agreements, in line with his strategic preference for alliances that put more emphasis on American jobs and industries. This hard-nosed foreign policy is likely to reinforce his legacy as a president who redefined U.S. global engagement on his own terms.
U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS: During his first term, Trump opted for the policy against Chinese goods, trade war, and constraining the technological influence of China. "Trump brought China policy to the forefront of U.S. political discourse and underlined visibility of the strategic competition," said Michael Pillsbury, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. His administration's tariffs were intended to cut the US trade deficit but also to compel China to change to more fair and open trade policies; the consequences for US consumers remained, however, a very contentious issue. In 2024, the administration of Trump will be expected to further tighten up trade restrictions and encourage self-sufficiency in strategic sectors of technology and manufacturing. Indeed, analysts, including those from the Hoover Institution like Elizabeth Economy, expect a more holistic decoupling with deeper cuts in economic dependency on China. Trump's policies might also include further restrictions on Chinese tech companies and sanctions regarding human rights abuses. His administration has pursued an especially assertive approach toward China as part of a greater "America First" policy aimed at balancing the influence currently enjoyed by a rising China, leading quite possibly to expanded competition in the Indo-Pacific.
US-ASIA POLICY: Trump's return to office coincides with a refocusing of U.S. attention on the Indo-Pacific, a region whose geopolitics a rising China has dramatically altered. During his first term, Trump's approach to the Indo-Pacific was spotty: he withdrew from the TPP-a free-trade agreement centered around the Indo-Pacific and including many key Asian allies; but he did much to build stronger bilateral relationships, especially with Japan and India. Where his administration had reinforced and established the Quad-a strategic security dialogue between the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia-a hedge against China's influence in the Indo-Pacific. As Joshua White, an Asia expert at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, comments, "Trump's reliance upon bilateral deals allowed for flexibility but sometimes lacked the coherency of multilateral strategies." For 2024, Trump might repeat his commitments towards the strategic importance of Asia by reconsolidating alliances with local democracies. Analysts expect a sharper orientation of military and economic cooperation with India, Japan, and Australia-nations that are considered vital for the balance of power against China's regional hegemony. The Trump administration may redefine the role of the U.S. in the Asian theater in terms of security and economic self-reliance and turn away from comprehensive trade agreements toward deeper bilateral defense relationships. From what observers can tell, his Asia policy will likely revolve around a network of like-minded partners who can guarantee that U.S. influence will remain strong throughout the region.
MIDDLE EAST RELATIONS: The Abraham Accords, which normalised relations between Israel and several Arab nations including those from the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco, was arguably one of the most important foreign policy feats of Trump's period in office. The signing of the accords was labelled by experts such as Dennis Ross from the Washington Institute as a game-changing move toward stability in the Middle East. The presidency of Trump was sealed with a close relation with Israel, and the moving of the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem had shown just how much he supported the key American ally in the region. Yet for the second term, Trump wants to work on the expansion of the Abraham Accords by bringing more Arab states under its ambit with a view to having Iran isolated and strengthening regional security. Analysts said Trump's Iran policy would also remain unforgiving, "with re-imposed sanctions and diplomatic isolation." Suzanne Maloney from Brookings Institution suggests that Trump's policy in the Middle East will "center on curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions and fostering economic cooperation among U.S.-aligned states." This focus reflects Trump's desire to engrave a legacy of U.S. leadership and influence in a critical geopolitical region.
US-RUSSIA RELATIONS AND THE UKRAINE CONFLICT: Trump's relationship with Russia has always been complexly balanced between rhetorical warmth and concrete actions, including sanctions. His administration's support for Ukraine, including lethal aid, became one of the most contentious parts of his presidency and his first impeachment. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, U.S.-Russia relations have come under increased scrutiny, and a Trump presidency in 2024 raises new complications regarding how to manage this tense dynamic. According to analysts, including former Ambassador Michael McFaul, the most prudent approach by the Trump Administration could be to continue diplomatic channels to lessen tension while commitments of support to Ukrainian sovereignty are upheld. A strategic engagement with Russia, balancing priorities of national security with prudent diplomacy to reduce regional volatility, might be Trump's second-term move into office.
A RESILIENT VISION FOR AMERICA'S ROLE ON THE WORLD STAGE: At the return of Donald Trump to the White House in 2024, a unique "America First" vision was once again brought back into view, this time with a new focus on economic independence, secured borders, and selected alliances. The policies to be pursued by his administration on trade, immigration, and global relations have long-lasting implication possibilities for the American economy and its international influence.
Trump's hardline positions vis-à-vis China, selective engagement with Asia, and determination to reshape alliances make for a contradictory and aggressive foreign policy agenda-one that both consolidates and contests the global order. For his supporters, Trump's presidency represents a genuine attempt at returning America to its former state of strength and prosperity; for those who oppose him, it foreshadows a submerged isolationism and fraught alliances. However, judging by some key policy areas, the influence of Trump has been especially pronounced in defining a bold new chapter for America's place in a multipolar world. As the administration moves along, the legacy of his policies and their transformative potential thus far promise to shape the nation's trajectory into an increasingly engaged and competitive world
Dr. Serajul I. Bhuiyan is professor and former chair of the Department of Journalism and Mass Communications and Georgia Governor's AI Teaching Fellow, Savannah State University, Savannah, Georgia, USA.
sibhuiyan@yahoo.com