UN population analyst J. Chamie has recently drawn attention to the world's evolving demographic scenario and some possible worrisome consequences for humanity and planet Earth due to population growth. He has observed that the continuous growth of human population is more troubling both in short as well as long terms. This is a source of anxiety and it might continue to undermine the wellbeing of humanity.
In this context reference has also been made by scientists and review Commissions about the potential consequences of human population increase--towards climate change, environment, pollution and sustainable development. This dynamic will further contribute to the climate crisis, environmental degradation, biodiversity loss, natural resource depletion and pollution. In other words, world population growth poses a serious threat to the sustainability of humans on the planet.
Population size fluctuates at differing rates in different regions. Nonetheless, population growth has been the long-standing trend on all inhabited continents, as well as in most individual states. During the 20th century, the global population saw its greatest increase in known history, rising from about 1.6 billion in 1900 to over 6 billion in 2000 as the whole world entered the early phases of what has come to be called the "demographic transition". Some of the key factors contributing to this increase included the lessening of the mortality rate in many countries by improved sanitation and medical advances, and also a massive increase in agricultural productivity attributed to the Green Revolution. By 2000, there were approximately ten times as many people on Earth as there had been in 1700.
However, concerned with potential consequences, climatologists, environmentalists, scientists and others are now repeatedly calling for population stabilisation, with some even urging for measures to gradually reduce the size of world population.
Despite these warnings of life on our planet being under siege, the proponents of continued demographic growth--including many elected government officials, business leaders, investors and economic advisors--have by and large disregarded the widely available evidence on the consequences of population growth in tackling climate change and the environment. In both their policies and actions, they have dismissed the warnings and recommendations urging for world population stabilisation and its gradual reduction.
One needs to recall here how the question of population growth and need to monitor it emerged in the international matrix. Margaret Sanger thought to be the founder of the birth control movement in the United States conceived the World Population Conference and organised a group of scientists to develop the programme.
Despite growing controversy about abortion and family planning in many countries, one also needs to remember that population growth in the Western world became more rapid after the introduction of vaccination and other improvements in medicine and sanitation. Interestingly, improved material conditions led to the population of Britain increasing from 10 million to 40 million in the 19th century. The population of the United Kingdom reached 60 million in 2006. The United States saw its population grow from around 5.3 million in 1800 to 106 million in 1920, exceeding 307 million by 2010.
The total number of births globally is currently (2015-2020) 140 million/year, which is projected to peak during the period 2040-2045 at 141 million/year and then decline slowly to 126 million/year by 2100. The total number of deaths is currently 57 million/year and is projected to grow steadily to 121 million/year by 2100.
Interestingly, population pro-growth proponents erroneously appear to be claiming that the numerous cited consequences of population growth on the world's climate, environment, biodiversity, natural resources and human wellbeing are greatly exaggerated. However, less than one hundred years ago, i.e., in 1927, world population had reached 2 billion. In 1974, the figure doubled to 4 billion and nearly fifty years later in 2022, it doubled again to more than 8 billion.
On the other hand, despite the calls for the stabilisation of human population, any slowdown in the growth is typically viewed with concern, alarm, panic and fear. Economic growth advocates claim that we require sustained population growth. Such analysts see a growing population vital to the production of more goods and services leading to higher economic growth. In addition, pro-growth advocates consider population growth essential for profits, taxes, labour force, politics, cultural leadership and power.
As such, slowdown in a country's demographic growth, as has been experienced by some countries during the past decade and expected to take place also in some other countries in the coming decades, is met by political, business, economic leaders and businesses and special interest groups ringing alarm bells and warning of economic calamities and national decline. Such an approach in some cases have led to some of them calling for limited immigration in order to achieve population stabilisation. Reducing immigration levels, they often claim, is incompatible with the needs for labour, the promotion of innovation and sustained economic growth.
In this context, socio-economic statisticians have in their observations also noted that in addition to policies aimed at raising fertility levels, nearly 40 per cent of countries have relied on immigration to increase their rates of population growth. Without immigration, the population of some of those countries, such as Australia, Canada and the United States, would also decline in size due to below replacement fertility levels.
Some have even claimed that population decline due to low birth rates is a far bigger risk to civilisation than climate change. In addition, others have stressed, worker shortages coupled with population ageing will have social and economic repercussions, especially with regard to the financial solvency of national retirement pension programmes.
The pro-growth of population advocates has also been warning of a pending population crisis due to low fertility rates, many of which are below the replacement level. Many among them reiterate that their solution to the low fertility levels rests in encouraging the public, in particular women, to have more babies.
Consequently, since 1976, the proportion of countries with government policies to raise fertility levels has tripled from 9 to 28 per cent. Europe has the highest proportion of countries seeking to raise fertility rates at 66 per cent, followed by Asia at 38 per cent. Some governments have also introduced various pro-nationalist policy measures to raise fertility levels. These measures include tax incentives, family allowances, baby bonuses, cash incentives, government loans, maternal and paternal leave, publicly subsidised child care, flexible work schedules, parental leave and campaigns aimed at changing public attitudes.
Of the 55 countries with policies to raise fertility, nearly three-quarters of them have low fertility and one-third have a total fertility rate lower than 1.5 births per woman. The populations of those 55 countries range in size from more than 1.4 billion to less than 10 million. The diverse group of countries seeking to raise their fertility levels includes Armenia, Chile, China, Cuba, France, Hungary, Iran, Israel, Italy, Japan, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Spain, Thailand, Turkey and Ukraine.
Many cities and local communities in parts of Latin and Central America also seek to have growing populations and lament slowdowns and declines in demographic growth. By and large, population stabilisation is viewed as "population stagnation", which they maintain not only suppresses economic growth for businesses but also reduces job opportunities for workers.
In contrast to the dire warnings of population stagnation or collapse, quite a large section of the world population also believe that lower fertility and smaller populations should be celebrated rather than feared. In addition to positive consequences for climate change and the environment, lower birth rates are frequently linked to increased education of women, greater gender equality, improved health levels and higher living standards.
It has also been noted that despite the calls for population stabilisation, population growth is likely to persist for some time. According to the UN, the global population reached 8 billion in November 2022, but because the growth rate is slowing, it will take another 15 years to reach around 9 billion by 2037 and 20 years to reach 10 billion by 2058.
Projected figures vary depending on underlying statistical assumptions and the variables used in projection calculations, especially the fertility and mortality variables. More than half of the global population growth between today and mid-century is expected to occur in Africa. The populations of many sub-Saharan African countries are likely to double in size over the coming several decades. That profile would create an interesting scenario.
Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador, is an analyst specialised in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance.
muhammadzamir0@gmail.com