All hopes for reaching an understanding on election process have not yet vanished. Informal dialogue is continuing after the announcement of election schedule. Different quarters are trying to involve BNP in the election process. If informal contact bears fruit, formal meetings will take place. Change in election schedule may take place if there is possibility of reaching consensus. The civil society and the diplomats are diligently trying to resolve the crisis.
A delegation of distinguished persons under the leadership of Dr Kamal Hossain called on the President and requested him to take the initiative for resolving the on going political crisis. Diplomats from US, UK, EU, China and India are talking to the leaders of the two parties to find out an acceptable solution. The chief election commissioner has indicated that election schedule could be changed if BNP agreed to participate in the election.
Secretaries of the two parties are believed to have discussed various alternatives. It is hoped that a solution may emerge from these alternatives. The secretaries have reportedly discussed with their party chiefs. They will come out in the open once a solution is found.
They are now looking for a solution within the existing framework of the constitution. Even if Sheikh Hasina remains the prime minister, she may not have absolute power. Rules of business may be changed so that cabinet members may implement decisions without interference from the prime minister. BNP has reportedly deviated from its original demand for caretaker government and may participate in election if they get some concessions from the government.
Chances of consensus through dialogue, however, seem to be shrinking. Neither of the sides appears to be truly eager about holding dialogue. Goverment appears to be going ahead with one-sided election. BNP is observing programmes for stopping the election. As a result violence is spreading. Law enforcing agencies and the ruling party are engaged in containing troubles. This has resulted in further spread of violence Detention of top leaders of BNP has contributed to the deterioration of the situation. Extremists will take advantage of this situation. BNP is of the view that their blockade programme was a success.
Policy makers of BNP-led 18-Party Alliance now see little hope for a solution to the political deadlock through talks with the government. They believe that the government will go ahead with its plan for holding polls without BNP. The government will make all out preparations for the national election. The opposition will keep urging the government to resolve the crisis through dialogue to show its sincerity to the diplomats.
The UN Secretary General has called for an inclusive, non-violent and credible election and encouraged the two major political parties to engage in constructive dialogue to resolve the deadlock. He is sending his deputy Oscar Taranco to encourage dialogue. The UN mission appears to be rather late as the schedule for election has already been announced.
The diplomats are doing ground work and holding informal consultation with the senior leaders of both the parties prior to the arrival of the Assistant Secretary General of the UN. According to diplomats, BNP leaders will be allowed to participate in discussions. They seem to be willing to accept the president as the head of election time government but the election commission has to be reconstituted and some changes will have to be made in the administration.
If the visit of UN envoy does not produce any result, the world community will have nothing to do. The international community is doing their best to solve the crisis. Election in Bangladesh has become an international issue. There is little chance of settling this issue internally.
The writer is an economist and columnist. [email protected]
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