At independence in 1971, Bangladesh was considered as an 'economic cripple'. It was feared further that there would be no light at the end of the tunnel. A volley of reasons worked behind this unfortunate doomsday prediction: overpopulation, poor natural resource base, vulnerability to natural disasters and undiversified agrarian economy that depended on the production of mainly two crops - rice and jute. To turn things worse, population was growing at 3.0 per cent per annum with a density of over 500 per km2; the cultivated land frontier had already been exhausted with two-thirds of the total land under cultivation. On the other hand, the fragile physical infrastructure (power, transport and irrigation) failed to support the growth of directly productive activities, and an entrepreneurial class of Bangladeshi origin was yet to emerge. The pessimism rose to the peak as several in-depth rural studies in the 1970s observed that the agrarian structure would constrain the development of productive forces in Bangladesh.
Notwithstanding these adverse initial conditions, Bangladesh has managed to thrive through thick and thin. It could feed its growing population well with a declining cultivated land area, substantially curtailed population growth rate and achieve moderate progress in economic growth and poverty reduction. Bangladesh is now dubbed as a 'development puzzle' in the discourse on development. The literature is full of studies on experience of Bangladesh on growth, structural transformation of the economy, and on income distribution and poverty.
A notable feature of social progress in Bangladesh is the substantial reduction in the population growth rate over a short period of time. The 2001 population census recorded a growth rate of 1.5 per cent per year in the 1990s compared to 2.4 per cent in the 1980s. The growth in rural population has fallen faster due to rapid rural-urban migration. The information obtained from repeat sample surveys-generated panel data seems to be consistent with the above macro-level observation. The panel data show that 71 per cent of the households enumerated in the 1980s remained intact in 2000s and onwards, 18 per cent had broken due to forming of new households by married children, and the remaining 11 per cent migrated out from the village. The number of households increased at 1.3 per cent per year during the last decade or so but the population increased by only 0.4 per cent per annum due to reduction in the size of the household from 5.86 in the 1980s to 5.38 in 2000s and 4.3 in recent years. The number of households grew even at a slower rate of 0.6 per cent during the same period, and the population remained almost stagnant due to further reduction in household size to 4.94. The child-woman ratio (children 0-4 years of age per woman in the age group 15-49), which is an indicator of current fertility, declined from 67 per 1000 in 1980s to 35 in recent years. The rapid decline in fertility had important implications on the availability of human capital for supporting economic activities. The number of children (age 15 and below) has declined from 45 per cent of total population to 35 per cent. In contrast, the population in the working age group (16-59) has increased from 50 to 59 per cent. While the average size of households has declined, the number of working members remained unchanged at 2.6 per household.
Human resource is the most abundant resource in Bangladesh. But its quality remains very poor. According to the reports of population census taken earlier, the literacy rate was only 26 per cent in 1981, and increased marginally to 32 per cent by 1991. Also, there was a huge disparity in literacy levels between the male and female population. The 2001 population census reported substantial progress in literacy rates, particularly for the female population. During 1991-2001, the literacy rate increased from 39 to 49 per cent for men and from 25 to 41 for women.
The information obtained from the repeat surveys also reveals substantial progress in adult literacy and school participation rates over 1988-2014. The participation of 6-10 year age group in primary schools has increased from 62 to 91 per cent for boys and 55 to 94 per cent for girls. For the 11 to 17 age group (secondary school age population), the participation in schools has increased from 58 to 75 for boys, but at a substantially higher rate for girls, from 47 to 83 per cent. The gender disparity in participation in primary schools has disappeared, and has turned in favour of girls for secondary schools. The higher participation of girls in secondary schools compared to boys may be in response to the policy of the government to provide free tuition and scholarship to girls attending secondary schools.
It will take some time for the progress in school participation to have effect on the quality of labour. But some improvement has already taken place. Among the adult population (age 16 and over), the proportion with no formal schooling has reduced from 61 to 41 per cent within the last few decades, while that with secondary level education and above has increased from 17 to 34 per cent. The average year of schooling for the earning members of the household has increased from 3.4 in the 1980s to 4.7 in most recent periods. Indeed, the human capital content of rural labour has improved across all landownership groups. The average years of schooling for earning members have increased from 1.6 to 3.0 for the landless and marginal landowners and from 4.6 to 7.4 for medium and large landowners.
The educational attainment of the workers shows that the better-educated are employed in services while the least-educated are employed as wage-labourers. The average years of schooling are lower for workers providing agricultural wage-labour than for those who are engaged in rural transport, construction and processing activities. Households earning their livelihood from services have the highest level of education for their workers, followed by those dependent on trade, business and farming.
The writer, formerly a Professor of Economics at Jahangirnagar University, is Acting Chair of Economics and Social Sciences (ESS), BRAC Univesity.
abdulbayes.brac.net
From an economic cripple to a development puzzle
Abdul Bayes | Published: November 19, 2016 00:00:00 | Updated: November 18, 2016 19:18:56
Share if you like