The unbending position of the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is making the prevailing political situation more critical. Foreign diplomats and donor representatives have expressed their concern. Initiatives both at local and foreigners' levels have been taken to end the present impasse. But the two parties are not responding to the initiatives.
Concerns have also been expressed by politicians outside the two major blocs, professional bodies and civil society. Two parties are asking for solutions on their own terms. Dialogue is very important but no party is willing to give any concession to its rival. Violence is not coming to an end. Miseries of the people are going up.
The economy is bleeding. Farmers, labourers and students are the losers. The BNP is observing non-stop siege and frequent hartals. Many people have died and many more are wounded. The government will not sit for dialogue unless violence is stopped. The BNP will not stop its programme without getting an assurance for dialogue.
The US has offered its help in resolving the crisis. The UN too is willing to mediate. The government is taking administrative measures to contain the situation. Warrants of arrest have been issued against Khaleda Zia. The BNP has announced that the movement will continue even if the BNP Chairperson is arrested. Many fear that such an arrest will fuel further violence. The Jamaat-e-Islami has said it would join the anti-government movement more vigorously.
The political situation is worsening. Hundreds of BNP leaders and workers are now behind the bars. The party's central office is under lock and key. There appears to be no opportunity for an understanding. The problem may be solved by fresh election, said the EU parliamentary representative in an interview with a German television channel. Bangladesh is heading towards a civil war, opined the EU human rights group. Two former presidents of Bangladesh have also called for dialogue between the two parties. The need for dialogue has been supported by the Communist Party, BSD, JSD, Gono Forum, Nagorik Samaj and Revolutionary Workers Party. The Krisak-Sramik Janata League president is observing a sit-in programme in support of dialogue.
The president of the Communist Party has said that continuation of the present crisis may lead to a situation worse even than that of 1/11. The Shujan secretary general has said that dialogue has no substitute. The government will have to come forward and the BNP will have to drop its programme. These two events will have to take place simultaneously. This seems to be the only way-out.
One should remember how Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina held dialogues with the rebellious BDR soldiers' representatives in 2009 and earlier in 1996-97, with the Shanti Bahini. The government's refusal to sit with the BNP to resolve the crisis does not appear to be logical.
Some foreign diplomats, including the US and the EU Ambassadors in Dhaka, stressed on March 03 the need for building confidence among political parties to de-escalate the country's political conflict. The diplomats were in a meeting with the BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia. Sixteen foreign envoys urged the prime minister and the BNP chairperson to hold talks for a peaceful resolution of the crisis. They sent separate letters to the two leaders. The international community was concerned as the tense political situation was pushing Bangladesh dangerously to a deep crisis.
The envoys requested the prime minister to indicate concrete ways to de-escalate the situation and to engage the opposition constructively. They expressed concern on the shrinking democratic space for the opposition. The envoys in their letter to the BNP chairperson deplored the ongoing violence and disruption in the country.
The diplomats in Dhaka have been working informally to bring the two parties closer and forge a consensus. The UN Secretary General has already asked his deputy to liaise with the government and the opposition. Recently, the diplomats had separate meetings with the BNP and the government. The foreign minister informed the diplomats that if violence stopped, opportunities would be created for political programmes. On the other hand, the BNP has reportedly given three conditions such as withdrawal of warrant of arrest against Khaleda Zia, release of the acting secretary general of BNP and unlocking of their central office.
Foreign diplomats are eager to meet the prime minister. But they have been given the opportunity of meeting the foreign minister, the political adviser and the state minister for foreign affairs. Communication with the government will be through the ministry of foreign affairs. The ambassadors may meet the foreign minister for the second time soon. The ambassadors have taken the initiative as development partners. They are trying to work out a permanent solution. Eleven US Congressmen have addressed a letter to the US Secretary of State to take an initiative for stopping violence.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said that the current unrest in Bangladesh has been taking its toll on the economy. The IMF expects the GDP (gross domestic product) to grow by about 6.0 per cent. The finance minister hinted that the economic growth might shrink slightly under the impact of the political turmoil that continues to linger. The government has slashed the ADP (Annual Development Programme) by 6.62 per cent for the current year.
The political situation is now critical. Both the government and the BNP will have to be flexible in dealing with the situation.
The writer is an economist and columnist.
 jamaluddinsyed23@yahoo.com.au