India\\\'s relations with China under Modi government

India and China are the biggest countries in Asia geographically with huge populations but their political systems are diametrically opposite. India is the world's largest democracy while China is practising a one-party communist system. Political environment between the two Asian giants is clouded with suspicion and mistrust since the war between them over non-habitable areas of Ladakh in Arunachal Pradesh of India in May, 1962. India also granted asylum to some disgruntled Tibetans, including the Dalai Lama, in India when mass exodus took place in mid-1959 as Tibetan resistance to Chinese communist rule broke out. Most of the refugee Tibetans are residing at Manipat in Old Delhi and Jaipur in Orissa of India.

 Prior to the 1962 war, relation between the two countries was rooted in 'Hindi-Chin Bhai Bhai'. But later, relations between the two countries remained a non-starter. On the other hand, China had developed friendly relations with India's arch rival Pakistan from mid-1960s. Pakistan remained a steadfast ally during Beijing's isolation from international platform in mid-1960s and early 1970s. Both China and Pakistan have considered themselves as valued strategic partners against India.

Viewed from this perspective, it would be difficult for both India and China to improve relations at the level of earlier 'Hindi-Chin Bhai Bhai' amity, but from an economic perspective, they need each other to develop their economies for improving the lot of teeming millions. Since a change of scenario in India with the installation of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at the helm of affairs led by Narendra Modi, now the Prime Minister, the new leadership in China led by President Xi Jinping has attached importance to development of relations with India.

The present Prime Minister of India is not a stranger to Beijing as he had been on visit to China four times as Chief Minister of Gujarat state of India. According to The Guardian, Narendra Modi carried red business cards printed in Chinese to impress the Chinese business community. Narendra Modi reportedly expressed his warm feelings towards technocrats of Beijing by saying he feels more at home with them than in the West.

 The first-ever visit by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to India  as a special envoy of President Xi Jinping in June immediately after the BJP took over the administration had demonstrated keen interest of the Chinese government to develop relations with India.  

This development can be seen from the overture by Japanese Prime Minister Shinezo Abe to develop close relations with India following his visit to India in January, 2014. Japan offered US$2 billion to India to improve subway system in New Delhi while two countries agreed to conduct survey by July on the possibility of bringing Japan's Shin Kasen bullet train technology to connect Mumbai with Ahmedabad through high speed train. Narendra Modi is planning to visit Japan in July to expedite the project which had become his dream project during his election campaign.         

On June 08, the Chinese Foreign Minister was received by Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj and discussed major irritants including border disputes, construction of dam over river Brahmaputra on Chinese side and issuance of separate visas to a section of Indians. They also discussed ways to increase trade and investment in India. The Chinese special envoy had also audience with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on June 09. They had 45-minute tete-a-tete and the envoy handed over a letter from the Chinese President describing the two countries as partners in long-term strategic cooperation. While reciprocating, Prime Minister Modi said India and China share strong civilisational contacts and should work to expand their partnership.        

 The visit of the Chinese special envoy was marred by protests in New Delhi on two consecutive days by Tibetans who burned Chinese flags and shouted anti-Chinese slogans.  China also does not recognise Jammu-Kashmir as legitimate part of India. This is one side of the story.

China by now is considered as naval and continental power in Asia while India is not lagging behind and empowering itself as a naval power. China has begun building deep sea port in the southern coast of Sri Lanka while it assisted Pakistan in setting up a sea port in the town of Gadara in Baluchistan. As reported, China has started courting the littoral states in the Indian Ocean like the Maldives, Mauritius and Seychelles. China has built a deep sea port on Maday Island in Myanmar and eyeing to build a deep sea port at Sonadia off Cox's Bazar in the Bay of Bengal. Therefore, both China and India are competing as naval powers in Asia.

 The Economist in its 2013 issue portrayed Gujarat state of India at par with Guangdong of China with regard to prosperity. Gujarat state accounted for 5.0 per cent of India's population, 16 per cent of its industrial output and 22 per cent of its exports. A contributor to The Global Times of China thinks Prime Minister Modi would place emphasis on infrastructure development, attract investment and establish special economic zones.

India's trade deficit with China reached $1.4 billion in 2013 while Chinese foreign direct investment to India stood at $940 million.

This being the present scenario between India and China, it is difficult to predict which way the wind will blow in developing economic relations in particular because the new BJP government is yet to announce  clear-cut foreign policy principles. Prime Minister Modi would possibly like to demonstrate that 'India can match Chinese dynamism,' as observed in an editorial by The Washington Post on May 17, 2014. However, the relations between the two Asian giants would certainly not reach the height of the early 1960s.

The writer is a retired Bangladesh

diplomat.

 amjad.21@gmail.com