Uncertainty has descended upon Bangladesh-India relations since Narendra Modi became the new Prime Minister of India in May this year. For the entire last term of the Awami League-led government and part of this present term until the Congress was voted out by the Indian electorate in May, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina went out of the way, often at great political risks, to support India. In fact, her statements of support for India's critical security concerns without even being requested immediately after assuming office in January 2009 were music to New Delhi's ears. On the other important issue of land transit, the AL-led government allowed India trial run to underline its seriousness towards taking bilateral relations to a level never seen in the past.
Within months of Sheikh Hasina becoming Prime Minister, her government handed to New Delhi seven top ULFA terrorists who were in sanctuaries inside Bangladesh. That broke the back of the many decades-old ULFA secessionist/terrorist movement. New Delhi and Dhaka also improved and strengthened their institutional framework for security cooperation that gave India a handle inside Bangladesh to deal with its security concerns from Bangladesh. The land transit that Bangladesh granted to India on a trial basis allowed Tripura to build its 700 MW gas-fired Palatana power station. India was expected to hand to Bangladesh a deal on sharing of the water of the Teesta during Manmohon Singh's visit in September 2011. That did not happen as a result of which Bangladesh withdrew the offer to make land transit permanent that was ready for signature. India nevertheless signed the additional protocol to the 1974 Indira-Mujib Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) on that visit. Manmohan Singh had assured that upon his return to New Delhi, his government would ratify the additional protocol to resolve the land boundary issues that had remained pending on the Indian side since 1974 to overcome the disappointment in Bangladesh over the Teesta deal. When ratified, the LBA will give Bangladesh an advantage on land to be exchanged that are now in adverse possession.
That promise was not fulfilled and the ratification of the LBA deal got stuck in the Indian parliament due to intransigence of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Nevertheless, the Congress government kept on assuring the AL-led government for the next three years until it lost power that both the Teesta and the LBA deals would be delivered to Bangladesh "soon." Dhaka remained patient and the AL-led government continued to provide New Delhi full support on security.
Meantime, however, the AL-led government came under tremendous pressure from within the country and abroad to hold "inclusive" elections. The Congress government came forward and helped the AL-led government deal with the pressure that helped it to return to power through the January 05 elections that became controversial for a number of reasons. India also took the responsibility to help the AL-led government deal with the western nations and the UN that cast serious doubts over the nature of the January 05 elections. In the backdrop of Congress' support for the AL-led government at a critical time, the two pending deals were forced into the back seat.
The Awami League, no doubt, feeling frustrated that the Congress met with a humiliating defeat, nevertheless hoped that the BJP government would also provide it the same sort of unequivocal support as the Congress used to do. Instead, thus far, the signals from New Delhi have not been very warm. While Narendra Modi found time to visit Bhutan and Nepal as the new Indian Prime Minister, he did not find the time to visit Bangladesh. In his place, Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj visited Dhaka but she did not give any signals to make the AL-led government feel comfortable because with questions of legitimacy against it getting stronger rather than weaker, it needs New Delhi behind it as much as it had leading to the January 05 elections.
The AL-led government has also not received any positive news from New Delhi on the pending Teesta and LBA deals apart from more promises. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina finally met Narendra Modi nearly five months after he assumed office, the last among the SAARC leaders to meet him, and that too on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session in New York in October. However, she could have met him earlier had she not gone to Japan for an official visit during Narendra Modi's inauguration to which she was invited together with the other SAARC leaders. In New York, her meeting with Narendra Modi was too short for meaningful dialogue and even in that short duration, Narendra Modi did not give Sheikh Hasina much hope. On LBA, he informed her that the ratification bill was in the Upper House of the Lok Sabha being considered by the select committee. On Teesta, Narendra Modi informed Sheikh Hasina that water was a sensitive issue and that New Delhi was negotiating with the stakeholders for a resolution. Significantly, though, he informed Sheikh Hasina that even without an agreement, Bangladesh was receiving water on the Teesta on its side.
Meanwhile, serious security concerns have arisen for Bangladesh from India, Paschimbanga in particular. In an interview to Ananda Bazar, Sheikh Haisna spelt out the concerns unequivocally and what she expected New Delhi to do. She said in the interview: "India needs to take action to destroy Bangladeshi militants operating from India much in the same way Indian militants have been obliterated from Bangladesh's soil." There was a tone of impatience and frustration in the Prime Minister's interview because New Delhi owed it to Bangladesh to assure Dhaka more forcefully that it would do whatever was necessary to catch the militants and hand them over to Bangladesh as Bangladesh had done with India's security concerns, particularly with the top ULFA terrorists. That New Delhi has not done so far. To that, New Delhi so far has also done little on the two pending issues.
New Delhi has apparently allowed relations to slide. The AL-led government, unwittingly or perhaps to get China behind it to face the pressure of the western nations on the issue of its legitimacy, has made major overtures towards India's regional rival to upset the new government in New Delhi. Sheikh Hasina undertook a much-hyped official visit to Beijing just when the new BJP government took office. On that visit, she assured China of her government's commitment to its leadership of Asia; made new defence purchases that included two submarines and negotiated to give China the green signal to build the deep-sea port at Sonadia.
Nevertheless, New Delhi owes Bangladesh a great deal and to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in particular. Therefore she was justified to be unhappy with India's failure to "destroy Bangladesh militants on its soil".
The writer is a retired career diplomat.
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