Indirect deaths in Gaza three to 15 times more than direct deaths: Lancet

As the Israeli genocidal war machine moved on to invade Gaza in late October last year, it was killing anyone who moved and destroying anything that stood. The Israeli Occupation Force (IOF) is both massacring Palestinians and destroying their physical and social infrastructure. Even before the current war, the Gaza strip was hermitically blockaded by Israel for 17 years, turning it into an open-air prison. In fact, the Israeli blockade rendered the impoverished Gaza Strip virtually "unliveable", a term used by the then UN Special Rapporteur Michael Lynk in 2018.

The Gaza Ministry of Health estimates that the total number of Palestinians dead exceeds 38,000, of which more than 15,000 are children in early July. The total number of casualties is well above 120,000 and most of its 2.3 million population are displaced. According to the Wall Street Journal, by mid-December last year almost 70 per cent of Gaza's 439,000 homes and half of its buildings have been destroyed or damaged. Now the situation is far worse.

According to a statement issued on June 19 by the United Nations Agency for Palestinian Refugees, UNRWA, close to 70 per cent of Gaza's water, sanitation facilities and infrastructure have been destroyed or damaged, leading to the spreading of infectious diseases.

The Israeli Occupation Force (IOF) in pursuance of its genocidal war also destroyed the Gaza headquarters of UNRWA levelling it to the ground. UNRWA Commissioner General Philippe Lazzarini posted the images of destruction and commented, "UNRWA headquarters in Gaza, turned into a battlefield and now flattened.''

A group of highly qualified independent UN experts declared early this month that because of a deliberate policy of mass starvation against Palestinians pursued by the Israeli government, famine has spread throughout the entire Gaza strip. The experts clearly condemned Israel deliberate policy of mass starvation in Gaza and said, "We declare that Israel's intentional and targeted starvation campaign against Palestinian people is a form of genocidal violence and resulted in famine across all of Gaza."

Compounding the food and water crisis is the pollution caused by mountains of solid waste piling up across whole of Gaza. The 2,000-pound bombs dropped by Israel are changing the landscape in Gaza. So far 14, 000 of these 2,000-pound bombs have been supplied by the US. Also, about 10 per cent of bombs dropped on Gaza did not explode on impact. It is reported that more than 10 explosions of these unexploded ordnance happen every week.

As murderous air assaults along with ground offensives continue, the Gaza Ministry of Health reports that 38,400 Palestinians have been killed and wounded more than 88,000 by the beginning of July. However, the Lancet, the prestigious British medical Journal calculates that 186,000 or more Palestinians have been killed by the Israeli Occupation Force (IOF) in Gaza, accounting for 8 per cent of Gaza's pre-war population. The estimate is based on a conservative estimate of "indirect deaths" by the genocidal attack on Gaza. A similar percentage of the population of the US would be 26 million people.

This figure is far more than the figure of 37,396 provided by the Gaza Health Ministry at the time of the preparation of the study. The study pointed out that the estimated death toll is higher because the official death toll does not take into account thousands of dead buried under rubble and indirect deaths caused by the destruction of health facilities, food distribution systems and other public infrastructure.

The Lancet report noted, "In recent conflicts, such indirect deaths range from three to 15 times the number of direct deaths. Applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death to the 37,396 deaths reported, it is not implausible to estimate that up to 186,000or more deaths could be attributed to the current conflict in Gaza."

But there are reasons to question the validity of these low benchmark assumptions given the fact that various Israeli ministers and officials have explicitly stated a goal of killing Palestinians through starvation and disease. A report published last month by the United Nations commission investigating the Gaza war said, "Israel has used starvation as a method of war, affecting the entire population of the Gaza Strip for decades to come, with particularly negative consequences for children."

The Lancet study further added that even if the Gaza war ends immediately, it will continue to cause many indirect deaths in the coming months and years through diseases. It further added that "collecting data is becoming increasingly difficult for the Gaza Health Ministry due to the destruction of much of the infrastructure."

The Lancet report clearly demonstrates that the Gaza genocide is one of greatest acts of barbarism in modern history. Yet, the Lancet study has been barely reported in the US and Western mainstream media.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his murderous regime can act as they like because they enjoy the unconditional support of the US and the major European powers like the UK, France and Germany. Prime Minister Netanyahu has been accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court (ICC). He travelled to Washington D.C. on July 24 where he addressed a joint session of Congress, essentially to provide a progress report to his principal supporters and paymasters in this genocide.

The Lancet report rightly observed that, "Documenting the true scale is crucial for ensuring historical accountability and acknowledging the full cost of the war. It is also a legal requirement."

Ever since the birth of organised Zionism in 1897, its followers have been determined to establish a Jewish state on a land not theirs but populated by Palestinians. If correctly contextualised, or more precisely it is vitally important to understand that Israel is a colonial settler state. Therefore, it would be impossible to understand the current Israeli genocide that is being carried out in Gaza without understanding the colonial settler context.

As such apartheid was knowingly and deeply entrenched in the construction of Israeli state from the beginning. As historian Rashid Khalili observes the conflict is not between two equal national movements fighting over the same land, but rather is "a colonial war waged against the indigenous population, by a variety of parties, to force them to relinquish their homeland to another people against their will."

It is evidently clear that the Zionist colonial settler apartheid state called Israel has been at war against Palestinians since its establishment in 1948 with the intent to establish complete control and sovereignty over Palestine. What is happening in Gaza now is not only a war but also genocide to achieve that goal.

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