A lot of people prefer to describe Bangladesh as a country of infinite potential. It might help reflect their love for the country. High emotional attachment perches them to pulpit of high expectation. They disregard the need to deliberate on the issues involved dispassionately and rigorously. Instead they hasten to project lofty scenario utterly detached from the reality. Such unrealistic projection later on breeds frustration.
There is no scope to undermine the potential of Bangladesh; it does not behoove well for any Bangladeshi. It is, however, erroneous to assert that the country has the highest potential for development or it is the mannequin of human achievement in the world. Such assertion creates confusion and leads the policy makers to arrive at wrong decisions. I hold that economists and social scientists should ferret out the truth and present it to citizens and policy makers in a cogent way such that there is no room for misinterpretation. Their objective pursuit will in the long run benefit both themselves and the policy makers alike, with no detriment to country's interest.
THE LAND AND PEOPLE: The moot question is: what are the real resources of Bangladesh? The country's population is extremely large compared to its size such that its density per acre is highest in the world barring the city states like Hong Kong or Singapore. Countries with a normal land size are no where near Bangladesh so far as the population density is concerned. High density of population imports a lot of convoluted problems though it is not without blessings. The age structure of Bangladesh's population is extremely conducive to high productivity promising rich demographic dividend for the country. Unfortunately the real pinch of high population comes not from economic arena but from the physical and logistics management. It may be apposite to carry out a mental survey about the resource position in the country.
DL Roy's rhythmic assertion that no country can be compared with our beautiful land is at best partially true. Bangladesh is endowed with fertile land; it is very suitable for agricultural activities. So is the climate. It will not, however, be true to say that this is the most fertile land in the world. Mr. Brammer, a renowned soil scientist and a former consultant attached to Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council (BARC), observed that Bangladesh land was not unsatisfactory from fertility perspective, it was not in the top league of fertile lands. More fertile and suitable lands are available in many countries of the world. It will be difficult to make a quantum leap in agricultural productivity unless the soil quality is upgraded through intensive nurturing. Food self-sufficiency is not a cinch in Bangladesh.
NATURAL RESOURCES: The country is not rich in natural resources. The country does not have oil reserve; gas reserve is also far too inadequate to meet domestic demand. Other mineral resources are negligible in supply. The country is blessed with many rivers; unfortunately they originate from neighbouring countries such that Bangladeshis do not have control over the water resources of these rivers. So far as energy architecture index is concerned the country's position is at the lowest end of the table. Its position is lowest among the South Asian countries. The country's forest land is limited. Pastoral land is almost nil. Wetlands and water bodies have been swallowed by the land grabbers. Agricultural lands are also being squeezed rapidly by their rapacious assaults.
If one says that Bangladesh will be a highly developed country by 2040 it will be a great expectation not countenanced by any rigorous calculus. It can at best be said it will be graduated to a middle income country by this time. Instead it can be asserted with certitude that within that time span the country will be nowhere near Sweden's present position. Situation beyond 2040 is anybody's guess. It will take a long time for Bangladesh to reach the level where Norway, Sweden and Canada are located at present. Development cannot be achieved at a go, a country has to progress steadily to reach the league of developed countries. There is no way to overtake them overnight.
GROWTH RATE: Reality for Bangladesh is that it has to proceed with a modest speed, surefooted and steadily. There is no need for a pell-mell rush to ambitious development which will create unbalanced achievements and destabilise social equations much to the detriment of gross national happiness. I do not see any possibility of achieving a growth rate higher than 8.0 per cent in near future. Moderate growth should, however, be good enough for Bangladesh. Over-ambition is bad, it leads to disappointment.
Emotional as they are, some Bangladeshis will try to impress upon the reader that Bangladesh is traversing the growth path at the highest speed. True, Bangladesh has logged a satisfactory growth performance over the last three decades. The growth rate has been positive all through. Other indices of economic performance moved in the right direction. This is not enough to permit an analyst to place country's growth rate at the topmost echelon. Bangladesh as yet could not reach a growth rate of 7.0 per cent per annum. The country is faced with formidable constraints in achieving higher growth rate.
TRANSACTION HAZARD: The constraints are limited supply of natural resources, inadequacy of developed human resources and physical infrastructure. There is another substantive problem, transaction hazard, as is called, in management parlance. This problem emanates from a person's failure to accomplish his/her task smoothly in time at a decent level of perfection and trust. Absence of work ethics, it appears to me, has always been a major obstacle to national development.
My personal experience was not happy in this regard. Workers were hardly able to command an abiding trust of the clientele and colleagues. Their habits rendered them unworthy of any lasting trust. It was extremely difficult to find out a person who would not create transaction hazards over a long period of time. Transaction hazards seem to be all pervasive. Foreigners can diagnose the problem within a short time. Because they are very solvent and endowed with scads of resources they at times brush aside such problems.
In my life I have not come across even a dozen of persons who can be unrelentingly trusted without qualification and who will not swerve an inch in discharging their responsibilities. It is very likely that citizens will acquire higher knowledge and upgrade their skill over time. It may, however, take a long time before they are equipped with the rich human quality, satisfactory work ethics and the stance that facilitates smooth transaction.
In my school days, I would often be readily impressed by some acquaintance and speak highly about him before my parents and others. My mother would ask me if I had accomplished any business transaction with him. Once I answered in the negative she would promptly advise that unless we had some meaningful business transaction with someone we would not really know what type of person actually he was. Her advice was proved to be correct in letter and spirit. I have come across very few persons who proved themselves to be trustworthy perpetually. People will visit you umpteenth time to realise their selfish interest, will pester you with phone calls and will not care even to thank you once their purpose is served. They will come back only when they need your help again. It is evident that we have some serious problem with the human quality in our citizens. Their unenlightened selfishness militates against building a stable bondage in business or other programs on a long term basis.
QUALITY OF OUR EDUCATION: Our achievement in education is not very impressive. There are about 40 million students in the country. Since the number is high at least a tiny portion of them will do well in their pursuit of education. The same is true for sports. It should not be difficult to discover a group of highly talented sports persons if we strictly follow a fair and transparent procedure for selection. This should land us in a good position in the field of sports. Unfortunately we are away from such a procedure. We resort to nepotism, favouritism and corrupt practices which drag us behind.
In the recent past we have drastically undermined the quality of our education. The most seriously afflicted area in this sector is evaluation of examinees. We had a fairly acceptable evaluation system in our country. We have sacrificed the system at the alter of cheap popularity. As a result students with A+ grade cannot get through when put to any serious test. They do not qualify for admission into the next higher class. Teachers and senior well-wishers are flabbergasted to see their miserable performance in the admission tests.
An interesting letter from an A+ holder female student was published in a national daily a few months back. I have mentioned about this letter in my articles earlier. I find it compelling to quote it again. She wrote, "I feel ashamed to see the A+ holders around me. I don't think they deserve this grade; perhaps not even the lower ones." The explanation of the malaise lies elsewhere. It has now become a part of our custom to instruct the examiners informally to inflate the scores of the candidates so that the success rate is very high.
Political masters have linked the success rate in public examinations with the achievement of their government. This has spelt a grave disaster for the education sector. Candidates who should normally be placed in the third division is now shown as an A grade holder and so on. It is now extremely difficult to winnow out the best from the lemons based on their academic results. Such a phenomenon militates against building a livable environment.
It is not very difficult to find out a few top grade students among the huge crowd. The size of our educated people may be bigger than the total population of many countries. The meritorious group does not like to work inside the country. They are soon frustrated to see the working of the job market, absence of fair deal in the work situation, instability, corruption and lack of good governance in the country. They are leaving the country depriving it from their service which could result in value added. We are happy to get the remittance; it is a big deal for us.
PROPER USE OF RESOURCES: The human and management resources as well as the geographical, technological and economic resources of Bangladesh are not depressingly poor. We can progress at a decent pace by using the resources properly with care. Resources are limited and the probable growth rate has a ceiling, not too high.
It is now a public knowledge that corruption has reached a staggering height in the country. Corruption arrests the silver lining of smooth development. Unfortunately Bangladesh is a case in example. We have recently seen how the wealth of the top-notchers in the ruling party increased exponentially in a short span of time. This is beyond the expectation of their constituents and citizens alike. This implies they have misappropriated the resources of common people. A part of the resources might have already been parked in trans-border haven.
With such a huge population it is possible for Bangladesh to assemble a critical mass of bright individuals in almost every sector of national life. They should normally be world-class performer if we select them impartially without any corruption. One big problem with our most promising entrepreneurs or outstanding performers is that they want the highest returns or the rewards too quickly.
Whenever I tell some one that to reach the climax we have to wait for 15 to 20 years they turn their back utterly disappointed. In detailed discussion they will explicitly admit that they are not ready to wait for more than a year; some thing has to be done immediately. In this connection, I recall a popular story of a member, Planning Commission. He would often say that development of the country cannot wait for a long time, it has to be engendered immediately. He would take three months to dispose of a case which should normally take at best three days. Attempting to rush a case may serve the interest of an individual or group; often at the cost of the nation. Such tendency may impede our demarche to realise full potential of our resources for development. We are caught in the pitfall trap of over-ambition.
Once we can overcome these constraints we will position ourselves on a coign of vantage. We need to evaluate our resources more carefully and refrain from presenting an impractical scenario not supported by our resources or effort. We would do much better to remove the constraints rather than trash them away with pipe dream.
Dr. Saadat Husain is a former chairman of Public Service Commission. saadathusain@yahoo.com
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