Iraq unravels once again

Muhammad Zamir | Published: June 23, 2014 00:00:00 | Updated: November 30, 2026 06:01:00

In the recent past Iraq had faded from our collective consciousness. Recent events have pointed out once again the internal struggle that exists within Iraq under the veneer of so-called democracy set in place in that country. This has made people sit up and take notice once again.
Extremist militants belonging to 'Islamic State in Iraq and Syria' (ISIS) have over the last week and half created havoc in the northern, western and eastern parts of Iraq. The group is also known by some as the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant.
Its members include Europeans as well as Chechens, Turks and many fighters from other Arab countries, some attracted by the conflict in Syria. They apparently want to establish an Islamic state with Sharia law.
Within the first few days they gained complete control over Raqqa, Tirikit, Mosul, Suleiman beg, Falluja and Ramadi. This has resulted in nearly 800,000 internally displaced persons trying to escape violence, summary execution, abuse and wrath of ISIS.
These brazen incursions have highlighted the weaknesses of the Maliki government's ability to maintain security.
The international electronic media has been full of reports of police and soldiers running away from their posts rather than putting up a fight, abandoning their weapons as they fled.
The devastating militant advance had been apparently building for some time evolving out of growing sectarian tensions at home and a festering civil war over the border in Syria. It also demonstrated that the extremists are able to strike swiftly and effectively against Iraq's American-trained security forces.
Despite the extraordinary territorial advances made in a few days, counter-terrorism analysts are, however, sceptical about ISIS being able to hold on to freshly acquired territory. It is being suggested that they have little sway outside the Sunni community in either Iraq or Syria.
It would nevertheless be pertinent here to note that according to the United Nations, 2013 was Iraq's most violent in the last five years, with more than 8,800 people killed, most of them civilians.
Until May 2014, nearly 4,000 civilians have been killed this year with more than 900 dying in Anbar province  alone. Anbar is strategically important because it borders Jordan, Syria and Saudi Arabia and makes up about a third of the landmass of Iraq.  
It may be recalled that the last U.S. military forces left Iraq at the end of 2011, after nearly nine years of deadly and divisive war in the country. Talks that might have allowed a continued major military presence broke down amid disputes about whether U.S. troops would be immune to prosecution by Iraqi authorities.
Iraq's security forces, trained by the United States at a cost of billions of dollars, were earlier unable to dislodge the militants from strongholds in Anbar province and have now been routed in Mosul. The result has underlined growing instability in Iraq and the wider region.
This could have an unwelcome impact on oil markets. There's also concern that foreign fighters within ISIS ranks may return to their native countries, in Europe and elsewhere, and initiate terror attacks there.
US President Barack Obama on June 13 said, as expected, that he would take some time before taking any pro-active decision as to what action will be taken over Iraq, and that no US troops would be deployed there straight away.   In this context, he cynically observed that "because we have the best hammer does not mean that every problem is a nail."
It has also been clarified that any future US involvement "has to be joined by a serious and sincere effort by Iraq's leaders to set aside sectarian differences". Obama also indicated that ISIS represents a danger not just to Iraq and its people but that "it could pose a threat eventually to American interests (oil) as well".
He has assured in this regard that "ultimately it is up to the Iraqis as a sovereign nation to solve their problems." The Americans are aware that the current turmoil reflects Mr. Maliki's failure to draw major Sunni political forces into the political process and give them a stake in the governance of the
country.
Nevertheless, a US Navy aircraft carrier group with dozens of strike aircraft has been dispatched to the Gulf while Obama reviews the military options presented to him by his National Security Council.
Those urging caution are saying that the US faces a difficult dilemma — firstly, of being accused of abandoning an ally (in whom it has already invested billions of dollars of taxpayers' money in aid, and where more than 4,000 US servicemen have lost their lives) and secondly, if ISIS fighters die as a direct result of any future US air or missile strikes, there will inevitably be ISIS calls for revenge against the US and its allies, including Britain.
It is also being argued that if the US does decide to intervene militarily, with air or missile strikes against clearly identified ISIS positions, it will change the whole dynamic of this Middle East conflict and in the way the West approaches the dual conflicts in Iraq and Syria.
About 300 US "military personnel" in the meantime are being sent to Iraq to provide security for the US Embassy in Baghdad and assist in the temporary relocation of some US Embassy staff there. It has, however, been clarified that this
is not renewed military colla-
boration.
Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki for the past five years has presided over the packing of the Iraqi military and police with Shiite loyalists — in both the general officer ranks and the rank and file — while sidelining many effective commanders who led Iraqi troops in the battlefield gains of 2007-2010.
This included replacement of effective Sunni and Kurdish intelligence officers in the key mixed-sect areas of Baghdad, Diyala and Salaheddin provinces to ensure that Iraqi units focused on fighting Sunni insurgents while leaving loyal Shiite militias alone.
This step was taken to alleviate al-Maliki's fears of a military coup against his government. These measures marginalised Sunnis and Kurds in the north and entrenched al-Maliki and the Dawa Party ahead of national elections in 2009, 2010 and 2013.
In the meantime, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has called al-Maliki and promised that Shia-majority Iran would "not allow the supporters of terrorists to disrupt security and stability of Iraq through exporting terrorism to Iraq".
Iran has also proposed talks with USA in this regard if required. Unnamed sources in the Wall Street Journal and CNN have mentioned that Iran has already sent several elite units of its Revolutionary Guard to help Iraq. This is expected to upset Saudi Arabia (wary of Iranian involvement in its sphere of influence), already under pressure for having allegedly supported Sunni ISIS.
The current crisis has created another significant development. It has been reported that Kurdish leaders have used the current fighting to take control of territory they have sought to rule for decades - the strategic districts of Saadiyah and Jalawla.
Analysts fear that the violence will end in Iraq being further partitioned into Sunni, Shia and Kurdish zones. Iraq's descent into chaos has encouraged the Kurds in the north to take advantage of the tumult and to expand and tighten their control in the oil-rich Kirkuk province.
The Kurdish media have already started hailing the step as a historic reunification of Kurdish territory, which has a mixed population of Kurds, Arabs and Turkmen and has long been a thorny issue in Iraqi politics.
Many are suggesting that with the rest of Iraq apparently disintegrating along sectarian lines, and the central government in Baghdad in disarray, it may take a long time before the Iraqi authority in Baghdad will be able to challenge the Kurds' absorption of what they have long seen as the rightful jewel in their crown. It will also boost the trend towards independence for the Kurdistan region.
At this point, it needs to be understood that the ISIS has not been accepted as the unquestioned leader by the other mainstream militant Sunni group.
The Association of Muslim Clerics (AMC) has indicated that they do not believe in sectarian carnage and civil war between Sunnis and Shias and have rejected ISIS's call for revolutionaries to head for Karbala and Najaf as 'unacceptable and irresponsible' and have insisted that 'forgiveness and tolerance should be the keynote in administering "liberated" areas.
It is being anticipated that the problem will only get worse in the coming months. Now that the Iraqi government's weakness in Sunni territories has been exposed, other Sunni extremist groups like the Baathist-affiliated Naqshbandi Army and the Salafist Ansar al-Sunna Army may join forces with ISIS.
The solution to the growing ISIS threat lies in the inclusion of mainstream Sunni Arabs and Kurds as full partners in the state. Baghdad also needs to reach out to Sunni and Kurdish leaders and ask for their help and consider re-enlisting purged military commanders and Kurdish Peshmerga to help regain lost territory.
The West and al-Maliki also need to understand the bigger picture and the domino theory where an ISIS-affected Iraq might encourage militants in Afghanistan to increase violence and terror after US withdrawal of troops this year from that country.
Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador, is specialised in
foreign affairs, right to information and good governance.
 mzamir@dhaka.net