A new report envisions a nightmare scenario - only three of the climatic disasters could lead to global food shock. Food riots become inevitable as the price of basic crops skyrockets and stock markets experience terrible losses. The risk assessment produced by insurer Lloyd's of London with support from the United Kingdom's Foreign and Commonwealth Office - indicates an apocalyptic destruction of mankind by the middle of this century unless global warming is successfully resisted.
The report simulates three simultaneous disasters - a heat wave in South America, an explosion of windblown wheat stern rust pathogen across Russia, and a particularly strong El Niño southern oscillation cycle. All of these events are compatible to climatic trends and the impact is enough to cripple global food security. In order to serve a world population with a growth rate of 30 per cent, global food production should increase up to 70 per cent by 2050. Can we achieve this?
Undoubtedly, global food security is one of the most serious concerns of our time. Although the advancement of agricultural technologies is helping to increase food production in many countries, this progress is not adequate to meet the demands of an ever-increasing global population.
Despite the vital humanitarian role in some countries, food aid is not a sustainable solution for eradicating hunger. Apparently, the pressure from population growth will continue to tip the balance against land and water management in many developing countries. Although agricultural production is critical for a sustainable future, this is not the sole factor that influences food production. The requirements of population plans should be integrated into the national development strategies and linked to the extraction of natural resources so that comprehensive development is realised. The strategy should include population concerns - population growth and managing rural-urban migration patterns. Any community development strategy which incorporates essential social services and production resources is welcome.
Besides, sustainable development strategies - already encompassing soil erosion and impoverishment, deforestation, declining agricultural output, and poor water management - will not be feasible unless rural agricultural extension schemes are also devised to provide underprivileged farmers with credit, seeds, fertilisers and advices. Attention should be given to the amalgamation of traditional methods and advanced technologies for food production.
Meanwhile, the question of agricultural integration into external markets simply cannot be ignored. A balance between 'marketable' surplus and 'marketed' surplus should be created to encourage farmers in launching cooperatives for gaining access to urban and export markets. The G-20 countries must prepare a viable action plan to deal with the volatile activities of food commodity markets - targets and incentives are to be revised in a balanced manner. Food export restrictions that destabilise markets should be permitted only as the last resort.
Moreover, an optimal resource management is necessary to increase crop yields, prevent land degradation and provide sustainable livelihoods for millions of rural poor. Plus, national population schemes should activate comprehensive healthcare programmes and family-planning services to increase food production and ensure environmental protection while reducing the size of families and improving the health of the entire community. These programmes must be accessible to the poor.
Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has rightly noted that financial resources are not the sole necessity. Beyond the factors that exacerbate the current crisis, a whole series of fundamental problems needs to be resolved - How aid is channelled? How does it reach the farmers? The governance system of the global food security should be reformed to bring more coherence in the activities of governments and development partners. The governmental support to agriculture should never be ignored. A healthy agricultural sector - incorporating an upward non-farming economy, effective safety nets and social protection programmes - will be sufficient to face the global recession, ensure food security and defeat poverty.
In order to avoid the unpalatable consequences of widespread hunger and starvation in the decades to come, a firm commitment is needed to increase agricultural output - energising land management, applying nutrients, and using the right amount of water. Positive impact of such efforts will considerably minimise the severity of the food shortage and lift millions of people out of the prevailing state of hunger and malnutrition. This will prevent widespread starvation, premature death and social unrest around the world.
Dr B K Mukhopadhyay is a management economist at the West Bengal State University. [email protected]
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