Korean peace talks - a move in the right direction

There is a great sigh of relief as North and South Korea are stepping down the ladder of escalating armed confrontation. The Winter Olympics in Pyeon Chang 2018 now offers a unique opportunity to both Koreas to deescalate tension and promote peace in the Korean Peninsula. North Korean leader Kim Jung-un's New Year offer to ease tension between North and South Korea and willingness to attend the forthcoming Winter Olympics are the right steps away from the US-engineered brinkmanship in the Peninsula.

The first round of talks has already led to some positive outcomes where North Korea agreed to send a delegation to the Winter Olympics and to hold further talks on lowering tension along the border and to reopen military hotlines. North and South Korea have now agreed to march their athletes together under one flag at the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics to be held this month and to field a joint women's ice hockey team.

But everything has not been smooth because South Korea, as a strategic client state of the USA, requires nod from Washington how far it could go in negotiating with North Korea. That relationship was clearly seen when South Korean President Moon Jae-in said "I think President Trump deserves big credit for bringing about the inter-Korean talks. I want to show my gratitude''. He further added "it could be a result of the US-led sanctions and pressure''. This is an exemplary act of starting a "peace dialogue'' in complete bad faith. No wonder, North Korea blamed South Korea of "sordid acts of chilling'' reconciliation efforts. North Korea also criticised South Korean President Moon for suggesting that Donald Trump deserved credit for bringing the two sides together. South Korea's bad faith was further exemplified right at the beginning: at the beginning of the very first round of talks on January 09, 2018, head of North Korean delegation Ri Son Kwon suggested to his South Korean counterpart Cho Myoung-gyon that talks be open to reporters. Mr Ri further said in that way, peoples in both in North and South Korea would be able to see the North's sincerity about improving ties. But Mr Cho agreed for parts of the talks to open to reporters, only if that was necessary.

President Moon also said that his government did not differ with the US over how to respond to the threats from the North. He added that he was willing to meet North Korean leader Kim to improve bilateral ties. But North Korea made it abundantly clear that any discussion on nuclear weapons is completely off the agenda. Pyongyang assured Seoul that its weapons are only aimed at the US, not against its "brethren'' in the South, nor Russia or China.

Given South Korea's very limited capacity for manoeuvrability let alone act independently, North Korean newspaper Rodong Sinmun pointed out that all problems could be sorted out by the Korean people alone by abandoning external forces and cooperation together.

US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said that North Korea's decision to enter into a dialogue with South Korea was a clear indication that their campaign to isolate the North was working. President Trump later even called the inter-Korean meeting "a good thing'' and expressed his desire to talk to Kim Jung-un. But US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley took a much harder line and said that North could talk to any one they want but that did not change US stand on North Korea - it must denuclearise before any talks could take place. She even threatened North Korea of utter destruction.

However, there are no shortage of spoilers who would like to undermine the peace initiative between North and South Korea given the pressures and dynamics of geopolitics in the region. Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, echoing the core message from his patron state, demanded that North Korea's denuclearisation is the key discussion point. Prime Minister Abe even alleged that ongoing talks between North and South Korea about next month's Winter Olympics was a transparent effort of the North to buy time to keep working on its nuclear weapons. Mr Abe has reasons to be worried about a peace deal between the North and the South, because that will make a dent into his supporting arguments to militarise Japan. Even the former UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, who himself is a South Korean, weighed in with the Japanese Prime Minister depicting the picture of a very dangerous North Korea despite his country's very troubled and brutal history of colonisation by Japan and a number of those issues still remaining unresolved. In effect, the current crisis in the Korean Peninsula has its historical origin in the Japanese colonisation of Korea.

Meanwhile, while talks are taking place between North and South Korea, top diplomats from twenty countries - but China or Russia is not included - gathered in Vancouver, Canada to devise new ways and means to further tighten the economic noose around North Korea. Organised at the behest of the USA, it was called "North Korea Summit''. At the conference Rex Tillerson gave an assessment of the situation in the Korean Peninsula, including the possibility of a war with North Korea. He claimed North Korea's advance in nuclear programme made the situation "very tenuous''. Tillerson declined to comment on the possibility of a pre-emptive strike against North Korea.

China's absence from the Vancouver meeting limited the opportunity of what it could have achieved. At the same time North Korea is not showing any sign to give up its nuclear weapons. It is likely to consider any further tougher sanctions as an act of war. China's newspaper Global Times rightly pointed out "the meeting will likely accomplish little''.

Meanwhile, President Xi Jinping has asked President Donald Trump not to jeopardise the current process of easing tension between the North and the South. He further emphasised that maintenance of international unity is extremely important and reiterated China's willingness to work with the USA to resolve the issue.

The USA's very confrontational unilateralist position with North Korea ought to be seen from the latest (December, 2017) National Security Strategy Document which says "China and Russia challenge American power, influence, and interests, attempting to erode American security and prosperity'' and described China and Russia as revisionist powers. President Trump described the document being based on "principled realism'' but, in reality, it is a defensive response to its rivals China and Russia portraying them not as partners but as rivals trying to reassert their position in the world. The document also identifies Iran and North Korea as security threats. Trump in his speech emphasised the US must not go to war if they are not going to win. Since 1941 the USA has been in continuous wars all over the world, winning none but one and that required the use of nuclear weapons. That raises the possibility that the USA to win another war will use nuclear weapons. That strategy makes the Korean Peninsula a very dangerous place in the world.

The situation in the Korean Peninsula is very risky. The US from its strategic and economic points of view does not want to see a unified Korea or a peace settlement between North and South Korea. But its ability to maintain the current status quo based on no-peace is also increasingly becoming very challenging. The US also knows full well its demand to denuclearise as a precondition for peace talks with the North is totally futile and a no goer. President Trump behind all the bluster is obviously aware - and very keenly - that the global balance of power is shifting as China is emerging as a dominant economic power and an increasingly powerful military rival and a resurgent Russia is also adding to that shift. All these now put the limit on US military and economic power. The US cannot now have its own way with North Korea, and the realistic option is to negotiate with North Korea for a peaceful settlement of the current Korean crisis with China and Russia providing supporting roles.

The writer is an independent economic

and political analyst.

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