As India and the rest of the world are awaiting the outcome of the just-concluded Lok Sabha elections, a major issue doing the rounds in world capitals is India's foreign policy in the days to come, particularly, relations with its neighbours. Even though the results would be known on May 16, exit polls and other sources have already placed the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies at the helm of affairs in India. The opponents of the BJP are hotly contesting all these forecasts, but fact remains that most people seem to be veering towards the view that a change of guards in the helm of India is a certainty and that is going to favour opposition BJP and its prime ministerial nominee Narendra Modi. It appears that barring a highly unlikely development, a new government other than the incumbent Congress will be in place in India soon. Some reports say that the BJP seems so confident that it is already discussing the formation of the government and several names for key positions are coming up.
The Indian elections have been bitterly fought mostly on national issues, but ties with neighbours, including Bangladesh, often figured in campaign speeches of leaders of various parties. During the intense and at times acrimonious campaigns, more and more contentious national issues were raised by the contending parties as they felt that the voters could be wooed by bringing in all these matters. Personal attacks were also galore - something that was not seen in the present scale in earlier polls.
The polls that began on April 07, ended on May 12 and results will begin pouring in from May 16. The staggered elections were over in nine phases and all speculations would be set at rest with the announcement of the outcome in one of the most interesting and charged polls in the history of independent India. The broad scenario is that the Congress-led UPA government has fought a very difficult battle to remain in power after two terms while the BJP-led NDA (National Democratic Alliance) is favoured to win - although it is not certain whether it would be able to clinch a straight victory. Other regional and smaller political parties are also flexing their muscles as they feel that chances of their active role in the new government would be brightened following the election results as they believe the main parties will have to rely on them for formation of the new government.
The election campaigns of the contesting parties touched upon foreign policy, but it is not the big global powers that prominently came in for comments and observations. Not too surprisingly, the neighbours - especially Pakistan and China - were frequently referred to, but Bangladesh had often been mentioned in some Indian states having geographic proximity with this country. Issues like the Teesta waters, Land Boundary Agreement of 1974, situation along the borders, so-called "illegal infiltration" from Bangladesh across the border figured in the campaigns by heavyweight politicians.
The ruling Congress leaders including Rahul Gandhi, seen as party's "prime minister in waiting" should the ruling alliance returns to power, said on more than one occasion that relations with neighbours would remain a priority and are unlikely to experience change during another spell of Congress rule, which now seems a remote possibility.
The frontrunner for the prime ministership, Narendra Modi said if voted to power, his government would follow the foreign policy of A B Vajpayee government. He sought to dispel fears in some quarters that the BJP government could be harsh with some neighbours and also with the Indian minorities. Quite a few over-enthusiastic leaders of the BJP and its allies made threats to several neighbours, like saying that those opposed to Modi have no right to live in India. Pakistan and China are the main "whipping dogs" for such leaders, but other neighbours are not excluded. Narendra Modi disapproved such speculations and told several public meetings that Muslims have nothing to fear from him and his government.
Modi later softened his tone on sensitive issues like ties with neighbours and seems more and more pragmatic in these matters including on the issue of secularism. He told rallies in Paschimbanga and Assam about the "Bangladeshis" in all these areas and tried to make a distinction between the "Bangladeshis" on religious line, saying the Hindu refugees would be treated with care by his government while the Muslims must leave India. Later, he avoided making distinction in religious lines.
But in the final rounds of campaigning in Paschimbanga and Assam, Modi harped on the so-called "illegal Bangladeshis" in India, who he said, must pack up to leave India after May 16. He and other senior BJP leaders hardly mentioned Teesta waters and the Land Boundary Agreement (LBA). It appeared that they were unwilling to speak much on such issues as they probably did not formulate their positions on such matters. BJP has not supported the Indian government's initiative to ratify the LBA in parliament and the bill on the issue is now lying in the upper house (Rajya Sabha). It remains to be seen how BJP views these issues if it comes to power.
The ruling Trinamool Congress is the key force in the Lok Sabha polls in Paschimbanga. Chief minister Mamata Banerjee blows hot and cold on the issues of Teesta and LBA, and of late she dropped hints of being lenient on the LBA but remains somewhat tough on the sharing of Teesta waters. She claims to be keen to promote ties with Bangladesh, but is known to be unwilling to do so "at the cost of water or land". The leftists, which are the main opposition in the state, disapproves Mamata's stance on these issues. The Congress is not a force to reckon with in this state. In matters with Dhaka, Mamata is undoubtedly a big factor and she is fighting the polls without any allies and is hoping to win nearly 30 of the 42 seats in the state. But Mamata has taken a clear position on the issue of "illegal Bangladeshis", particularly in Paschimbanga when she challenged Modi to "touch" these people who are in fact Indians. She said Modi fails to understand that speaking the same Bangla language does not make an Indian a Bangladeshi. The chief minister also said that it was an issue that falls under the purview of the state government and not the federal authority, and as such Modi had no business to talk on such matters. Needless to say, Indo-Bangladesh matters would be closely monitored by the analysts if a BJP-led government takes the helm in India.
That a change of the guard in India is near-certain has received credence even from countries like the United States, whose president Barack Obama indicated that his country would work with the new leadership of India putting behind the past dislike for Modi. Narendra Modi was unwelcome in the US for his alleged role in the communal riots in Gujarat in 2002 when a large number of people, mostly the minority Muslims were killed. He has been accused of not protecting the minorities as the chief minister - an allegation that he denies.
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