Money that missed the market


Salim Afzal Shawon | Published: July 03, 2026 20:42:11


Money that missed the market

Bangladeshis will fund almost anything: from a cousin's factory expansion to a friend's restaurant chain. A 'guaranteed' land project was promoted through Facebook Live. A startup with no revenue but a convincing founder also gets funding. Funding for a cooperative promise monthly returns that defy mathematics and common sense is not a problem either.
And yet ask for a functioning venture capital ecosystem, a scalable crowd funding platform, or a mature private equity industry. Suddenly, the room becomes quiet.
This contradiction sits at the centre of Bangladesh's capital story.
For years, the country has debated why formal investment ecosystems struggle to scale. The explanations are familiar: regulatory friction, governance gaps, shallow markets, weak exits, currency risk, tax complications, and institutional distrust. All are true. But perhaps the more uncomfortable question is this: Do we try to build sophisticated financial ecosystems before building the people and institutions needed to operate them?
If one steps back from formal structures and examines how capital actually flows in Bangladesh, a different picture emerges. The appetite to invest exists. The willingness to take risks exists. Even entrepreneurial success exists. What does not exist consistently is a trusted system capable of channelling that energy productively.
So, the money adapted-informally.
MISREADING STARTUP STORY: Bangladesh's start-up ecosystem is often described as 'promising but underdeveloped,' the diplomatic way of saying investors are still waiting for the real story to begin.
But this narrative loses sight of an inconvenient fact: some of Bangladesh's strongest business successes were, in spirit, start-up stories well before the country adopted the phrase "Series A."
Take bKash. Built around a practical local problem rather than Silicon Valley vocabulary, it became one of the world's largest mobile financial service platforms, serving more than 80 million customers. Pathao scaled urban mobility and logistics before profitability became a common topic in start-up panels. ShopUp evolved from an SME-commerce story into a regional transaction significant enough to anchor Bangladesh's start-up funding narrative almost single-handedly in 2025.
None of these emerged from a deeply institutionalised venture ecosystem. They emerged despite the absence of one. They grew organically, solved real market problems, and scaled through operational discipline rather than pitch-deck vocabulary.
Ironically, many early Bangladeshi ventures had to learn financial discipline before telling valuation stories. When survival depends on actual customers rather than perpetual fundraising, business models become surprisingly efficient.
Bangladesh did not lack entrepreneurial capability. It lacked institutional machinery around entrepreneurship.
That distinction matters more now. The global environment has changed. The era of cheap money is fading. Venture capital is slowing even in mature ecosystems. Funding winter has arrived from Silicon Valley to Southeast Asia. In Bangladesh, where the ecosystem was still partly conceptual, the correction feels even sharper.
The numbers reflect that reality. Bangladesh recorded roughly US$124 million in startup-related funding in 2025, but most came from a single major transaction involving ShopUp, Sary, and SILQ. Without that headline deal, the ecosystem still looks shallow, fragmented, and highly dependent on a limited investor pool.
PRIVATE EQUITY: The private equity (PE) story is even more revealing.
On paper, Bangladesh should be an ideal PE market. There are large family businesses and fragmented industries. There is succession uncertainty and operational inefficiency. This is textbook private equity terrain.
Yet formal PE success stories remain surprisingly limited. Bangladesh formally introduced Alternative Investment Rules in 2015. Funds were launched, and international funds were also explored. Local structures emerged along with more advisory discussions. But sustained institutional success remained elusive.
Part of the challenge is structural. Bangladesh still lacks deep exit pathways. The stock market capitalisation-to-GDP ratio remains below many regional peers, limiting sophisticated exits. Strategic acquisitions are rare. Foreign investors continue to worry about currency convertibility and repatriation complexities.
But there's another issue-this one is cultural.
Traditional private equity operates on defined timelines, governance intervention, and eventual exits. Bangladeshi business culture often works differently. Relationships matter more than structures. Continuity matters more than clean exits. Families do not always want financial sponsors telling them how to run businesses built over generations.
Yet, private capital continues to flow-quietly, informally, and often effectively.
Across trading, manufacturing, healthcare, and consumer businesses, Bangladesh developed its own shadow version of private equity-relationship-based capital partnerships where investors stay involved indefinitely, rather than exiting after five years with an IRR presentation and a farewell dinner at a business club.
The structures are messy, but the economics are often real.
The pattern repeats: when formal systems fail to accommodate local realities, alternative systems emerge.
CROWD FUNDING EXISTS: Officially, Bangladesh barely has a meaningful crowd funding ecosystem. Unofficially, it is everywhere.
Scroll through Facebook, and you find land projects, trading pools, agro ventures, restaurants, fisheries, rental apartments, and 'exclusive investment opportunities' raising money directly from retail investors. Some are genuine, some are imaginative interpretations of securities law, and some are speculative fantasies in formal shirts. Some are simply fraud with better graphic design, and some are disasters waiting for newspaper headlines.
Yet people continue to invest, as capital does not flow repeatedly into an activity unless the underlying demand is real. Bangladeshis want access to investment opportunities beyond fixed deposits and land speculation. In an environment where inflation erodes purchasing power and deposit rates often fail to generate real returns, retail appetite for alternative investments naturally grows.t the same time, formal financial intermediation is weakening. Bangladesh Bank data shows that private-sector credit growth has slowed materially (to a multi-year low) from earlier expansionary periods, while inflationary pressures have remained elevated. That combination creates a dangerous psychological environment: savers become more desperate for returns precisely when trustworthy systems are weakest.
This partly explains why Ponzi schemes repeatedly find oxygen here. Destiny, Evaly, and countless smaller versions were not merely stories of fraud. They were symptoms of unmet financial demand colliding with weak institutional trust. Fraudsters did not invent investor appetite. They exploited a vacuum. Stopping fraudsters alone cannot prevent it from recurring. The vacuum must no longer exist.
COOPERATIVES STILL UNDER-BUILT: Globally, cooperative systems transformed agricultural economies, expanded credit access, and strengthened community ownership structures. From dairy in India (Amul) to microfinance-linked cooperative structures elsewhere in Asia, the model has repeatedly demonstrated scale potential when governance works.
Bangladesh has the legal basis, population density, and social networks. What it has consistently lacked is governance quality. The cooperative ordinance feels old enough to qualify for pension benefits, yet modernisation remains painfully limited. A few institutions scaled meaningfully (TMSS, Milk Vita). Most did not. than 170 million people, this underperformance is not merely administrative inefficiency. It is an economic opportunity cost. The issue is not the absence of regulation, as the county has never been entirely regulation-poor. It has often been execution-poor.
Bangladesh frequently builds frameworks first and operational capacity later. It is as if ecosystems emerge automatically once an ordinance is published in the gazette. Unfortunately, financial systems are not instant noodles. However, all these patterns point to a larger issue. Bangladesh's central economic challenge is increasingly not financial capital. It is human capital within systems.
The country has entrepreneurs and savers. It has demand, ambition and pockets of technical excellence. What it consistently lacks is enough ecosystem operators.
People who understand governance, risk management, fund structures, fiduciary duty, compliance architecture, and long-cycle institutional credibility are best positioned to build investor trust.
This is why imported models often struggle here. As Bangladesh enters a more complex economic phase, the easy demographic-growth chapter is fading. Foreign reserves, currency pressures, banking stress, and global capital competition are forcing the country toward institutional maturity, whether it feels ready or not. The transition cannot happen through policy papers alone. less glamorous than conference slogans suggest. Bangladesh does not need another ecosystem launch event. It needs ecosystem builders. That means integrating market professionals into policymaking where market expertise matters. It means creating institutional incentives that reward competence rather than proximity. It means allowing operators, not just administrators, to shape market infrastructure.
Neighbouring economies that built stronger venture, capital-market, and alternative-investment systems did not achieve it through regulation alone. They combined policy with experienced practitioners who understood how markets behave under stress, not just how they look in presentations.
Bangladesh can still do the same. Capital in this country wants to work: it keeps searching for businesses, chasing returns, taking risks despite repeated disappointments.
The tragedy is not the absence of money, it is how much of it still travels without a map. And perhaps the sharpest irony of all is this: one of the world's largest and most densely populated countries still lacks enough people trained to turn scattered capital into trusted institutions.

Salim Afzal Shawon, CFA, is the Head of Research at BRAC EPL Stock Brokerage and a former World Bank Group professional.
shawon006@gmail.com

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