Cartoon drawing by Liao Tingting —Xinhua The world, particularly the West and the European Union have watched carefully the latest evolving multifaceted dimensions of Russia-China relations.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, re-elected for a fifth Presidential term a few days ago chose to visit China as his first foreign trip destination recently. Analyst Laura Bicker from the BBC has pointed out that this visit reflected the close bilateral relationship that exists between these two countries. Putin also took this opportunity to tell the Chinese state media that he was interested in Chinese martial arts and philosophy, and also pointed out that some of his family are learning Mandarin. Within the difficult international paradigm that currently casts shadows on China and Russia, this reflected their growing bilateral relations.
This visit of Putin to China had its own dimensions.
On the one hand there was the visit of Chinese President Xi to Europe- which included discussions with the French President and senior representatives from the EU led by the EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyan, about economic ties and also meetings with senior leaders in Hungary and Serbia. There was also the subsequent US announcement of a raft of new sanctions against Beijing and Hong Kong-based banks and companies that work with Moscow, allegedly helping to evade existing restrictions. These measures were apparently taken because Washington and Brussels believe China is exporting tech and components essential for the war that has been going on in Ukraine.
However, China insists its stance on Ukraine is neutral and the exports to Russia, which have commercial uses outside of war, are not breaking the rules. On his recent visit to Europe, Mr Xi said the country is "neither the creator of the crisis, not a party to it or a participant".
However, Beijing still sees Moscow as key to reshaping a US-led world order. Trade between them is flourishing. Cheap Russian energy, including steady gas shipments via the Power of Siberia pipeline, has been a benefit for China. In 2023, Russia imported about US Dollar 110 billion worth of goods from China and exported about US Dollar 128 billion to China.
Zhao Tong, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment in this context has made an interesting observation about this evolving situation- "while China supports the goal of undermining Western influence, it does not agree with some of Russia's tactics, including the threat of using nuclear weapons. China is acutely aware of the reputational costs of appearing to offer unconditional support to Russia and is continuously refining its strategies to enhance its perceived legitimacy on the global stage."
We need to remember that as much as any other single development, China's rise over the past two decades has reshaped the landscape of global politics. Beginning with its entry into the World Trade Organisation in December 2001, China rapidly transformed its economy from a low-cost "factory to the world" to a global leader in advanced technologies. Along the way, it has transformed global supply chains and also international diplomacy, leveraging its success to become the primary trading and development partner for emerging economies across Asia, Africa and Latin America.
However, Beijing's emergence as a global power has also created tensions. Early expectations that China's integration into the global economy would lead to liberalisation at home and moderation abroad have proven slightly optimistic according to some analysts. They, particularly from the West, have observed that in China, currently, there is a domestic crackdown on dissent, in order to shore up and expand the Chinese Communist Party's control over every aspect of Chinese society.
Meanwhile, China's "quiet rise" has given way to more vocal expressions of great power aspirations and a more assertive international posture, particularly with regard to China's territorial disputes in the South China Sea. Combined with Beijing's military modernisation programme, this appears to have put some countries in Asia, as well as in the West, that China's economic power will have geopolitical implications. Such feelings have also gathered momentum after Xi was reappointed to a third term as Communist Party Chairman and Chinese President.
However, it would be worthwhile to note that according to Putin, Russia and China have been creating benchmarks through their cooperation within UN, BRICS, SCO and G20. It has also been underlined by Russia that they firmly support the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative.
Deutsche Welle has nevertheless highlighted another significant dimension. They have pointed out that the relationship between Russia's President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping is even more important now because China is Russia's main supplier of microelectronics vital to the war in Ukraine. In fact, it has been noted that China has become the main supplier of microelectronics and machine tools for Russian weapons, and NATO countries are worried that Russia may use these weapons on targets well beyond Ukraine.
Interestingly, in late 2023, the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) concluded in an analysis that in the worst-case scenario, NATO had only five more years to ensure that the 32-country bloc has the potential to deter a possible Russian attack on a NATO member. Apparently, for the study, researchers analysed publicly available data on the trade of goods to Russia - especially in relation to microelectronics for missiles and glide bombs used in Russia's war in Ukraine. It has also been revealed that emphasis was particularly given on trade in CNC machines. These are computer-controlled instruments used for metal processing, which are needed for the construction of artillery shells and other ammunition.
Geo-strategists have indicated that there has been a sudden influx in shipments of high-priority items from China to Russia in March 2023, when President Xi Jinping visited Russia. Washington think tank CSIS has observed that "Russian imports of CNC machines - which are used to provide precise parts for various weapons systems from ammunition to aircraft - from Chinese companies also experienced a sharp increase in the months following the Xi-Putin March 2023 meeting".
This has put the European Union and the United States in a tricky position, as they are imposing sanctions on companies that supply Russia's arms industry. Trade restrictions against these companies in Asia could also end up affecting Ukraine as well. However, US researchers have concluded that "Russia's industrial sector has become fully dependent on China for machine tools, and components critical to arms manufacturing."
The media covering Putin's visit to China have indicated that a "new era" of strategic partnership with China's Xi Jinping, has been underlined by Russian President Vladimir Putin. There has also been a highlighting of the growing importance of trade near the Russian border in China's northeast.
It is clear that facing political isolation and Western sanctions over Russia's two-year-old invasion of Ukraine, Putin is now increasingly turning to China to support its war economy. This has also led to Putin and Xi signed a joint statement during the state visit on 16 May that hailed the "new era", countering the US across a sweep of security and economic issues and a shared global view.
Xi also told Putin that "the China-Russia relationship today is hard-earned, and the two sides need to cherish and nurture it. China is willing to... jointly achieve the development and rejuvenation of our respective countries, and work together to uphold fairness and justice in the world."
It needs to be noted here that Russia's isolation from other powers has fuelled its trade with China, which surged 26.3 per cent last year to a record $240.1 billion, Chinese customs data shows. Russia has overtaken Saudi Arabia as China's top source of crude oil, with shipments jumping more than 24 per cent despite Western sanctions. An editorial in China's state-controlled Global Times newspaper has also cited the importance of burgeoning trade ties to the wider relationship, saying China had been Russia's largest trading partner for 13 straight years. The editorial has also observed- "these achievements are not easy and have been achieved by both countries overcoming various external challenges and unfavourable factors, highlighting the solid foundation of the China-Russia relationship."
The importance attached by Putin to this visit to China was exemplified by the fact that Putin was accompanied by a large trade delegation including Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, heads of some of Russia's largest banks and heads of Russian top oil producer Rosneft and liquefied natural gas giant Novatek.
This has also satisfied China because they have realized that Russia is relying on China to safeguard their interests.
There has also been a report from the AFP from Beijing that China's state broadcaster has aired footage of XI embracing Putin following their talks, which saw the Chinese leader express support for an "international peace conference recognised by Russia and Ukraine". There are, however, no indications that Moscow and Kyiv are prepared to engage in direct talks, which Ukraine says would only be used by Russia to buy time to prepare for a new assault.
The US State Department does not appear to have taken such an initiative as acceptable. The US State Department spokesman Patel has observed that if China wants to have better relationships with Europe and other countries, such relations would be difficult for a long time- "while simultaneously continuing to fuel the biggest threat to European security".
Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador, is an analyst specialised in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance.
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