NATO has finally ended its 13-year 'war on terror' in Afghanistan, leaving the country in the grip of worsening insurgent violence. At a closed-door ceremony, NATO Commander American General John Campbell, addressing the attending soldiers said: "You've made Afghanistan stronger and our countries safer."
His speech, however, did not appear amusing when he said: "Together… we have lifted the Afghan people out of the darkness of despair and given them hope for the future." The event was arranged in secret due to threat of Taliban strikes in the Afghan capital, which has been repeatedly hit by suicide bombings and gun attacks in recent years.
The ceremony completed the gradual handover of responsibilities to the 350,000-strong Afghan forces, who have been in charge of nationwide security since June last year. But the recent bloodshed has undermined claims that the insurgency is weakening and has highlighted fears that international intervention has failed as Afghanistan forces face spiralling violence.
The United Nations in a report says that civilian casualties hit a record high in 2014, jumping by 19 per cent with 3,188 civilians killed by end of November. An agency report from Kabul said that Afghan police and army have also suffered huge death toll of over 4,600 in the first 10 months of 2014 compared to IASF's death toll of 3,845 since 2001.
In a recent speech, US President Barack Obama is in record to have said: "The war in Afghanistan will not end in 2014. The US role may end, in whole or in part, but the war will continue. Its ultimate outcome is very much in doubt…If the current trends continue US troops are likely to leave behind a grinding stalemate between the government and the Taliban."
He may have correctly read the ground situation. Earlier, militants attacked a US army convoy on December 13, leaving at least two troops dead, bringing the number of killed this year to 65 ISAF troops, including 50 Americans. At its peak, 130,000 troops from 50 countries were part of NATO military alliance.
HENRY KISSINGER'S FORECAST: When the decision to withdraw NATO combat forces was taken earlier, a flurry of speculations appeared in the mainstream global media about its possible outcome. Former US Secretary of State Dr Henry Kissinger notably forecast that India would be the most adversely affected country if Jihadist Islamism gains impetus in Afghanistan. Other experts have also viewed that "departure of foreign troops from Afghanistan could push India and Pakistan toward a proxy war in the conflict-ridden state as both countries are fighting for a foothold and strategic influence.
Afghanistan is a member of SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation), a grouping of eight South Asian countries. Proxy war for foothold and influence in it, attempts of the rivals seeking support from other member countries is likely to drag the group into unchartered waters.
However, a South Asian expert Michael Kugelman recently told the German TV that the pullout of NATO troops poses "a set of potential security risks for India, aggravate the situation in Afghanistan and empower players like Taliban, which violently oppose India and Indian in Afghanistan. Risks for India are many. Embolden Taliban will have more space to ramp up their operations and perhaps even target the Indians with foreign troops leaving Afghanistan."
Meanwhile, President Ashraf Ghani knows his problems and without losing any time began to improve ties with his neighbours. He is seemingly trying to change the image of Afghanistan as being staunchly pro-Indian and openly anti-Pakistan as it became during the former president Hamid Karzai rule. President Ghani, of course, attaches high priority for reconciliation with Taliban even if that requires sharing power for ending the long running conflict and curbing terrorism. It is very difficult to predict what may happen in future.
However, Ashraf Ghani soon after coming to power began to improve ties with Pakistan and China and visited both the countries. While in Pakistan in November last, Ghani visited Pakistan army headquarters amid signs of warming up ties after more than a decade of mutual distrust during the Karzai regime. Ghani wants to repair the relations of his country with Pakistan which were often tense during Karzai rule who accused Pakistan of helping Taliban with money and equipment.
GHANI'S CHINA CARD: Apparently Ghani had done his homework about his country's geopolitical situation and decided to act as per his priority. For example, soon after taking over office on September 29, he chose to embark upon a quick three-day visit to Beijing on October 28. It was his first foreign visit as president in response to Chinese President Xi Jinping's invitation.
It was, indeed, significant that instead of making his first foreign trip as the country's new leader to any close ally, notably the US, he chose to visit China, the largest of Afghanistan's neighbours in the post-NATO period. Perhaps he thought he would be able manage both political and economic support from China, the world's second largest economic power after the US which has launched its "Silk Road Economic Belt" connecting Western China with Central Asia and beyond. This 'Belt' may rejuvenate Afghan economy and help curb the rise of the Islamic militants.
China's interest in a stable Afghanistan is understandable. China's Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous region borders with Afganistan. A growing alarm over rising Islamist militancy among the Uighurs, a Muslim ethnic group from northwest China, has actually prompted Beijing to step up its involvement with Afghanistan.
Analysts say, since 2001, the Uighur militants have fought in Afghanistan and elsewhere and the Chinese officials blame Uighur separatist group - the East Turkestan Islamic Movement - for a series of attacks in China killing hundreds of people in the last two years. Diplomatic sources suggest that in the recent past, Afghanistan's main intelligence agency, the National Directorate of Security, has continuously kept Beijing informed about the details of the dozens of Uighur Islamist militants who were caught fighting inside Afghanistan by the Afghan forces.
Interestingly, the sources further said that the Afghan intelligence officials had quietly visited China and briefed their counterparts in Beijing prior to Ghani's first China visit on how the Uighur militants were being sent to Pakistan for training before returning to fight in Afghanistan. Beijing officials were interested to know more on such activities because they were extremely concerned about the rising menace of Islamic terrorism in their own backyard.
As expected, Ashraf Ghani had done well out of his China visit. His intention to diversify regional connections and seeking partner with China rather than remaining totally reliant on the US for financial assistance and political support seems to have paid rich dividends. For example, China has pledged $330 million in assistance through 2017, a sharp rise from $250 million it had earlier provided over a decade. Besides, it has also agreed to provide 'unspecified' amount in security assistance.
An Afghan official told a news agency that China's security aid may go beyond 'limited help' that focused in the past on counter-narcotics efforts. But in doing so Beijing may also take on bigger risks. So far, China's only big investment in Afghanistan was a $3-billion concession awarded to China Metallurgical Group to mine a rich vein of copper in South of Kabul but could not make any headway because the area is thick with Taliban.
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