Hamas, the ill-equipped Palestinian freedom fighters of Gaza, shattered the hubris and complacency of Israel on Saturday (October 7) morning with an attack of unprecedented ferocity and depth. Coinciding with the fiftieth anniversary of the humiliating defeat of Israel in 1973 at Yim Kippur war with Egypt, its armed members of Al-Qassem Brigade unleashed a deadly barrage of over five thousand rockets all over Israel, defying its much vaunted Iron Dome protective shield. But the most daring act of defiance and challenge to the occupying force has been incursion deep inside Israeli territory and taking military and civilian hostages from Alkeshon, Sedort, Erez and other townships near Gaza border. Hamas spokesman has declared that they have launched Operation Al Aqsa Flood in protest against the desecration of Al Aqsa Mosque and continued occupation of Palestinian land. Hamas has exhorted militants from the region to join them in their righteous war against the occupying enemy.
The enormity of the unconventional military operation and its success in overwhelming Israeli defence lines has stunned the Israelis, making a hole into the myth of the invincibility of its security and infallibility of its intelligence system. Ironically, reminiscent of the Biblical story, a modern day David has routed the mighty Goliath, rubbing salt to injury. Israel's embarrassment and humiliation has never been more abject and palpable.
By the sheer number of deaths and injuries on both slides, the Hamas onslaught and Israel's knee-jerk response on the first day has surpassed all previous armed clashes between Israel and Arab armies, not to speak of those in guerrilla attacks by Al Fatah, Hejbullah or Hamas. According to Israel sources, 300 hundred of Israeli military personnel and civilians have died with more than 1100 injured in Saturday's surprise attack. For the Palestinians the figures are 435 and 2000 respectively, as of Saturday. [Israeli death toll crossed 700 and Palestinians reached at 600 as of Monday morning]. These are huge numbers and enough to shake up minds within government's and among public. But geopolitics being as it is, the reactions have been asymmetric. America and Europe have roundly condemned 'dastardly' attack ( 'unconscionable' according to President Biden) by ' terrorists' Hamas and expressed their ' rock solid' support of Israel in its defence against the 'terrorists'. That the act of terror has been caused by continued occupation of Palestinian land by Israel for about fifty years, frequent collective punishment meted out to the Palestinian community with impunity, blockading Gaza like a concentration camp for sixteen years and lately desecrating the holy site of Al Aqsa mosque have all been conveniently forgotten or ignored by America and its allies. Their condemnation of Hamas' attack has not been tempered with reference to revival of two-state solution even in passing or implicitly, implying the status quo is satisfactory. A great blunder has been committed by America and its allies in blindly supporting Israel without realising the anger and hatred its occupation of Palestine and treatment of Palestinians as sub- humans have been created over the years. As a result, America's stealth diplomacy in bringing together Arab countries in a grand alliance in the middle- east to act as its proxy has fallen flat on the ground. Not a single Arab country has condemned the Hamas attack, not even those who have normalised relations with Israel at the behest of America under its new-fangled Abram Accord. On the other hand, public in Arab capitals have poured in to streets, wildly rejoicing the Hamas exploits. In their eyes, the Hamas are not terrorists, but fighters engaged in a mortal battle to free their homeland. By taking a biased and one-sided stance on Israeli-Hamas conflict America and its allies have further alienated the Arab public and made it almost impossible to forge a grand alliance in the middle-east with Israel and Arab countries as members. If Israel had been incrementally undermining the geopolitical interests of the West in the middle- east, America and Europe have now done it in one fell swoop through their unconditional support of Israel. The damage wrought by their folly will take years, if not decades, to repair.
The question in everyone's mind after the start of the second Yim Kippur war (Netanyahu brazenly has called it a 'war') on Saturday is what does Hamas hope to achieve? Even in the height of their bravura performance in 25 locations inside Israel where they are engaged with Israeli army, the Hamas fighters do not have the illusion of winning the battles with Israel. They know very well that sooner or later they will be wiped out in all the battlefronts, outnumbered and outgunned as they are. Hardened by experience, their objective is not to defeat the Israelis decisively. All that they want to achieve is to send a message to Israel and its allies and the message is simple and straightforward: the status quo in occupied Palestine must end before more blood is spilt. They certainly don't relish the idea that to convey this simple message so many of their compatriots and civilian Israelis have to die, including they themselves. When pushed to the wall facing extermination what else could they do?
American Presidents in their reflex conditioned by elections and the powerful Zionist lobby repeat the mantra: Israel has the right to defend itself. To follow through this policy it has poured state-of-the-art arms and equipment to Israel since its inception. More will be given now in the aftermath of the embarrassing setback of its trusted ally in the middle-east. But in spite of the public declaration of raining fire and brimstone on Gaza to wipe out Hamas, Israel instead will have to rein in its mighty war machine of retribution for two reasons. Firstly, Hamas fighters hold dozens of Israeli civilians and military personnel as hostages. Any massive punitive retaliation will put their lives in jeopardy. Secondly, the prospect of normalising relations with Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries is too tempting to mount a reckless ground invasion of Gaza. For the first time in its history Israel has not only been publicly humiliated with a bloody nose, the room to take decisions at will have also precipitously shrunk. So while frothing at the mouth with public bluster, Netanyahu will quietly turn his tail and engage in secret negotiation with Hamas, directly or through a third party.
The most surprising and unexpected reaction coming from a Israeli politician after the Saturday attack by Hamas was by Ehud Olmert, the former prime minister of Israel. He said to Christian Amanpour of CNN in the evening of Saturday that while aggressively responding to the Hamas attack Israel should also take into account their 'dream' for a country of their own. He reiterated saying that the Palestinians' right could no longer be ignored. One wishes that there were many more sane politicians like him in Israel and in the corridors of power in America and Europe.
These are early days to say how the present war-like conflict will end. But one thing is certain: the future of middle-east will not be according to the image that America has nurtured so long. As for Israel, time is not on its side as it fondly cherished and it cannot wait out the Palestinians' hope of getting back their land.
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[October 08, 2023, Dhaka]