One must wonder whether between former US ambassador to Bangladesh Patricia Butenis and the present ambassador Dan Mozena, the United States of America has slipped from being a superpower to one that Bangladesh could ignore at will. In 2006, Patricia Butenis with her colleague in the British High Commission and the UNDP Representative had roped then Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) government and made it dance to their tune in any manner they liked. At present, Dan Mozena is making a lot of sound and fury about the January 05 elections. Yet, the present Awami League (AL) government is ignoring him as if he represented a power of little significance.
It is not just the US ambassador who is being taken lightly by the government of Bangladesh. Going by the public reaction of the AL general secretary to the recent hearing held at the US Senate's Foreign Relations Committee (FRC), the Bangladesh government has shown the same disdain for the powerful committee that is still considered as such in all the capitals of the world. The AL general secretary mockingly dismissed the discussions at the FRC hearing that considered the January 05 elections as "deeply flawed" and called for new "inclusive" elections. He short of asking the committee to shut up stated that there would be no elections in Bangladesh before 2019.
From where is the Bangladesh government getting the strength to stand up to such powerful quarters that also include the European Union, Canada, Australia and other developed countries that have all found the January 05 elections flawed and have asked for new "inclusive" elections? If Bangladesh were a country like North Korea, Zimbabwe or Myanmar of earlier days that did not care the power of the developed countries, then the present stance of its government could be understandable. That is not the case. Bangladesh depends on the developed countries for its well-being and there is no question that without their assistance and cooperation, Bangladesh would be able to move forward with its development goals. In fact, Bangladesh, once branded as "the international basket case" is today on road to becoming a middle-income country because of the support of the developed nations led by the USA and the contributions of its extremely vibrant private sector.
The elections have exposed that the ruling party is far from leading a united country and hence its strength is not based at home like Iran, Zimbabwe, North Korea or Myanmar that have withstood western pressures for long periods. One answer to the source of the AL-led government's strength could be the fact that it hopes that these countries would soon forget their reservations over the elections and deal with it like business as usual. The ambassadors/high commissioners of these countries in Dhaka have to some extent lured the AL-led government towards such complacency, as they have not backed their strong reservations about the elections with any concrete measures so far. The opposition, for instance, had expected that they would stay away from the swearing-in ceremony of the new government that they did not. There was also talk about sanctions from the European Union (EU) that have not come and do not look like to come anytime soon.
However, it is now a widely held view in the public domain in Bangladesh that the source of the ruling party's main strength in their disdain of the US and the western power lies in support from next-door India. There is widespread belief in Bangladesh that New Delhi for its own interests gave the AL a carte blanche to do whatever was necessary to return to power. Such a public perception regarding India has been based, among many reasons, on India's foreign secretary Sujata Singh's meeting with HM Ershad in Dhaka in early December in which she urged the former president to join hands with the AL to defeat the BNP/Jamat! That India would intervene in the internal affairs of a neighbour in such an unbelievable manner astounded many who held India in high esteem for its commitment to democratic values and principles.
In international politics, the connection between causes and effects are often not instant or quick. There is always a time lag in the process. Therefore, it could take quite a while for visible signs of the effects of the AL-led government's disdain for the western powers to take shape. It would be too naïve to even consider that there would be no effects to disdain shown by the government to the concerns of the United States and the western powers. The effects may not come in the forms of sanctions as some of the ministers and political leaders of the AL are suggesting. They could be equally correct in suggesting that they would not impose their will directly to compel the government to hold new elections soon.
However, there are many other ways, mostly indirect, with which these powers could impose their will upon a country like Bangladesh quite easily. The cancellation of the WB/JICA loan for the Padma Bridge project and the cancellation of the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) by the USA are cases in point. Although corruption by some officials was cited as cause for the cancellation of the loan, it was really the outcome of US's annoyance with the Bangladesh government over requests made to it that were denied. The construction of the bridge that would have been by now nearly complete and would have helped (gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 2.0 per cent has yet to start. There are major issues of trade and investment where Bangladesh could have to pay heavy price for the disdain with which it is treating the concerns of the United States and the western nations over the January 05 elections. For instance, the prospects of Bangladesh regaining the GSP facilities have become uncertain going by the way the Ministers of Finance and Commerce have reacted towards the USA after the FRC hearing.
Countries that have withstood western sanctions/pressures for long periods were able to do so because these were behind the governments. Others have withstood sanctions by pushing their countries and their peoples over the edge. Bangladesh's economy is too fragile and its domestic resources too meagre to be even thinking in those lines. Those who are dismissing concerns of western powers with disdain could be doing so by putting the country and its future on line because a country politically divided as Bangladesh is now can choose to annoy western powers, who hold the key to its prosperity, only when they are not in touch with reality.
The AL-led government's over-dependence on India is equally greatly misplaced. It is a pity it has forgotten how it was betrayed by New Delhi on the Teesta and the LBA (land boundary agreement) deals. More importantly, it seems to also have forgotten that India would have elections very soon in which the chances of the Congress returning are almost none. In the event of the BJP coming to power under Narendra Modi, there would be paradigm shifts in New Delhi-AL Led government's relationship. Two individuals responsible for the carte blanche for the AL would either have their powers clipped or gone. President Pranab Mukherjee's now powerful position in India's politics would be reduced to that of a figurehead like our President Abdul Hamid under the BJP government and SS Menon, the National Security Adviser and the architect of India-Bangladesh relations for the last few years, would lose his job.
Narendra Modi would also come with a different agenda that would be wise for the AL-led government to focus on. He would need to get on the right side of the United States, that had refused to grant him visa because of the Gujarat riots of 2002, to make a place for leading India in the world theatre. As prime minister, he would be more inclined to cooperate with the US on Bangladesh unlike the present Indian government that chose to fight the US over Bangladesh.
Therefore if the present government would like to treat the USA lightly, it could do so at its own peril and that of the country. It would be wise for its own interests and that of the country to pay heed to the strong message that has emanated from the Senate FRC for the US is not yet a lightweight power, not even by the longest stretch of imagination and it would not be wise either to ignore it by banking upon India.
The writer is a retired                        career Ambassador. serajul7@gmail.com
On wisdom of taking USA lightly
M. Serajul Islam | Published: February 16, 2014 00:00:00 | Updated: November 30, 2024 06:01:00
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