One hopes Gaza deal will not be temporary

Israel's government has approved the Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal with Hamas, paving the way for it to take effect one day before Trump took up his Office as the new President of the United States of America. The decision came after hours of discussions that continued late into the night. Two far-right ministers voted against the deal. The security cabinet earlier recommended ratifying the agreement, saying it "supports the achievement of the objectives of the war", according to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office. It came hours after the Israel Prime Minister's office and Hamas said they had finalised the details of the agreement. Two days later, it was announced by mediators-- Qatar, the US and Egypt.

David Gritten of the BBC reported that under the deal, 33 Israeli hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza after 15 months of conflict would be exchanged for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails during the first phase lasting six weeks. Qatar has said the hostages to be released during the first phase will include "civilian women, female soldiers, children, the elderly, and sick and wounded civilians".

Israeli forces will also withdraw from densely populated areas of Gaza, displaced Palestinians will be allowed to begin returning to their 'homes', and hundreds of aid lorries will be allowed into the territory each day. Israel has also indicated that three hostages are expected to be released on the first day of the ceasefire, with more small groups to be freed at regular intervals over the next six weeks.

Negotiations for the second phase -- which should see the remaining hostages released, a full Israeli troop withdrawal and "the restoration of sustainable calm"-- will start on the 16th day.

The third and final stage will involve the reconstruction of Gaza, something which could take years, and the return of any remaining hostages.

Analysts have, however, clearly observed that the world will very carefully monitor the evolving scenario. Some have also noted that peace is something that the world wants and the world is hoping that the evolving scenario will bring back hope for the areas devastated through cross-border attacks that resulted from what Hamas did on October 7, 2023.

More than 46,870 people have been killed in Gaza since then, according to the territory's Hamas-run health ministry. Most of the 2.3 million population has also been displaced. There has also been widespread destruction in Gaza. Observers and analysts along with the media have also reported that there are severe shortages of food, fuel, medicine and shelter due to a struggle to reach aid to those in need.

At the time of agreeing to the ceasefire, Israel observed that 94 of the hostages are still being held by Hamas, of whom 34 are presumed dead. In addition, there are four Israelis who were abducted before the war, two of whom are dead. Ahead of the Israeli government's vote on the deal, the Culture Minister Miki Zohar of Netanyahu's Likud party said, "It is a very hard decision, but we decided to support it because it is very important to us to see all of our children, men and women back home."

However, certain sections of Israel's political paradigm, particularly, the far-right National Security Party and the Religious Zionism Party, still want the war to restart, if possible, after the first phase ends.

On January 17, Israeli Justice Ministry published a list of 95 Palestinian prisoners which it said would be part of the first group to be freed in exchange for hostages. They comprised 69 women, 16 men and 10 minors, according to AFP.

The same day also witnessed a meeting held in Cairo to discuss mechanisms for implementing the deal. All necessary arrangements were agreed, including the formation of a joint operations room to ensure compliance that would include Egyptian, Qatari, US, Palestinian and Israeli representatives. Egyptian state-run Al-Qahera News TV has also mentioned a source as saying that they had agreed on facilitating the entry of 600 aid lorries per day during the ceasefire. That would require a more than 14-fold increase from January's UN-reported daily average of 43 lorries. However, Rik Peeperkorn, the World Health Organisation's Gaza Representative has observed that "the possibility is very much there" if the Rafah crossing with Egypt and other crossings are opened. The WHO apparently, also plans to deliver a number of prefabricated hospitals to support the devastated healthcare sector. Such support is urgently required because a survey has indicated that half of Gaza's 36 hospitals are not functional, while the others are only partially functional.

It would be interesting to note here how some important world leaders have reacted to the announcement of this Truce Agreement.

Former US President Joe Biden, after the Agreement, observed from the White House that "fighting in Gaza will stop, and soon the hostages will return home to their families".

US President-elect Donald Trump also remarked, "We have a deal for the hostages in the Middle East. They will be released shortly." Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social. "With this deal in place, my National Security team, through the efforts of Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, will continue to work closely with Israel and our Allies to make sure Gaza never again becomes a terrorist safe haven," Trump said in a second post. It may also be added that several Israeli media reports have indicated that Trump was decisive in getting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree to the pact, which will lead to the release of Israeli captives in Gaza as well as hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. It may be recalled that Trump sent his envoy Steve Witkoff to meet with mediators in Qatar and Netanyahu in Israel before the Agreement. The media has confirmed that that Witkoff apparently pushed Netanyahu to accept the agreement.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has told reporters that the UN was ready to back the deal and "scale up the delivery of sustained humanitarian relief to the countless Palestinians who continue to suffer".

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has told reporters in Ankara that the ceasefire deal was an important step for regional stability. He also said that Turkish efforts for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would continue. Qatar's Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani has called for calm to assist and facilitate the post ceasefire deal scenario in the Gaza Strip after the ceasefire deal takes effect. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in a post on X has welcomed the Gaza ceasefire deal and stressed the importance of a fast delivery of humanitarian aid to Gaza.

Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission has "warmly" welcomed the ceasefire agreement and has observed that now "hostages will be reunited with their loved ones and humanitarian aid can reach civilians in Gaza. This brings hope to an entire region, where people have endured immense suffering for far too long. Both parties must fully implement this agreement, as a stepping stone toward lasting stability in the region and a diplomatic resolution of the conflict." British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in an emailed statement has observed, "After months of devastating bloodshed and countless lives lost, this is the long-overdue news that the Israeli and Palestinian people have desperately been waiting for." Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere has correctly insisted on the need to strengthen Palestinian institutions in order for them to be able to "assume full control and responsibility, including in Gaza".

Strategists have indicated that Netanyahu may be able to capitalise on the public sentiment and even present himself as the one who ended the war and achieved several strategic goals before any new elections, earning himself another stay of political execution. Nevertheless, analysts have noted that many within the Israeli society have noted that there is also another connotation.

Many within Israel as well as their supporters have noted that the Israeli government, internationally, has also earned a marker for having carried on with a war that numerous civil and human rights groups from different parts of the world have characterised as genocide. This indirectly has led to Israel's growing international isolation

Such a scenario has led to Eugene Kandel and Ron Tzur suggesting that given the divisions produced by the country's war on Gaza and attempts by Netanyahu's government to keep itself way from judicial oversight might lead to "the likelihood that Israel will not be able to exist as a sovereign Jewish state in the coming decades." Interestingly, Dr Guy Shalev, the Executive Director of Physicians for Human Rights Israel, has observed that the denial of medical aid and torture of Palestinians has "definitely been a moral corruption within Israel." Shalev also added. "I think that fundamentally, if Palestinian lives don't matter, then eventually all lives matter less."

One needs to conclude by referring to a significant geo-strategic observation made by analysts Jeffrey Sachs and Sybil Fares. Both feel that the United Nations, on its 80th birthday in 2025, can mark the occasion by securing a lasting solution to the conflict in the Middle East, by welcoming the State of Palestine as the 194th UN member state.

A very good suggestion. The upcoming UN Conference on Palestine, set for June 2025, can be a turning point - a decisive, irreversible path towards peace in the Middle East. The Trump Administration would thereby greatly serve America's interests, and the world's, by championing the Two-State solution and a comprehensive Middle East peace deal, at the gathering in New York in June.

A new US foreign policy is needed in the Middle East - one that brings about peace rather than endless war. As mandated by the International Court of Justice, and as demonstrated through the UN General Assembly, the G20, BRICS, League of Arab States, the overwhelming majority of the world favours the Two-State solution.

Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador, is an analyst specialised in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance. [email protected]