The government is under pressure with regard to the 10th parliamentary election. The international community has decided not to send observers on the ground that the January 05 election is not going to be participatory and has all the elements of losing its credibility. The United States is not sending its observers to watch the election. Observers from the Commonwealth of 54 countries are also not coming. The European Union, comprising 28 states, will not be sending poll monitors. China, Japan and Canada have verbally let their decisions known about not sending observers. Such decisions will discourage foreign businessmen and investors in doing business with Bangladesh. In spite of efforts made by the United Nations, the two major parties could not find a solution for holding an inclusive and participatory election.
The People of Bangladesh deserve a non-violent and congenial atmosphere for election. The political leadership will have to ensure the rule of law.
Pressure is building on the economic front. The macro-economic situation is coming under increasing pressure. Entrepreneurs are losing global competitiveness. Production is being hampered due to high interest rate, gas and power crisis. Remittance is declining. Inflation is rising. Hartals and blockades are negatively impacting the economy. None will come to invest in this country unless the situation improves. Chinese buyers are moving to Myanmar. Export targets can not be fulfilled. Banks are losing their profitability. Share market investors are facing uncertainty. Import of capital machinery and raw materials has declined.
Implementation of the Annual Development Programme (ADP) is likely to suffer a setback due to the ongoing political unrest and violence. The ADP implementation would be lower in the current fiscal compared to the previous year largely because of the ongoing political crisis. Implementation is being hampered in various sectors, especially at the field level. The nation would have to wait and see how it could overcome the present political unrest and recoup the losses in the economic and social sectors.
Private sector investment in the country has virtually come to a halt in the recent days due to the prevailing political unrest. Investors are in a dilemma over making fresh investments and undertaking business expansion plans as frequent hartals and blockades have already created an adverse impact on the country's trade and industrial activities. The country's present environment is not at all investment-friendly. This has forced the entrepreneurs to adopt a wait-and-see policy. Employment generation plunged by 50 per cent during the first four months of the current financial year.
There is no indication that political instability will disappear soon. This may result in long-term crisis. Local investment has declined by 40 per cent. According to the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI), businesses are losing Tk 20 billion per day. Businessmen have come out to the streets demanding an end to hartals and blockades but nobody is listening to them. Garment factories can not keep dates for shipment. Buyers are looking for alternative sources of supply. There is no indication that the current political crisis will be solved soon. There is a shortfall in export earnings. Revenue earnings are falling.
Prices of consumer goods have gone up. Production is on the decline because of political instability and infrastructure inadequacy. Remittance is also falling. The crisis in share market continues. The share market fluctuates with ups and downs in political instability. Investors have funds but the main problem is the lack of confidence. Currently the share market is sick. It cannot remain normal when politics and economy are sick. There is gambling in the market. Market players are always on the look-out for an opportunity. Market will not be normalised unless there is an understanding about the election system.
Poultry farmers have sought a bailout package from the government to help them survive in the current political turmoil that has brought the sector to the brink of collapse. The situation is desperate and the farmers are struggling to save the business from ruination. The supply chain is severely disrupted. Farmers are unable to sell eggs and chicken or store those. The sector has lost more than Tk 40 billion in the last three months due to political unrest.
The prevailing political uncertainty has hit overseas job sector hard as fresh recruitment from some prospective countries have virtually come to a halt. A foreign country does not want to go for a deal with an unstable government. The manpower sector has been facing a sluggish trend for a long time and the present situation has only added hurdles to increasing job opportunities.
The country's leading economists have projected that growth of gross domestic product (GDP) might fall to a record low of the decade to below 5.0 per cent in the current fiscal year. Export and import trades have faced setback, production and supply got disrupted and future investment has become uncertain due to political programmes. The most worrying factor is that the shutdowns are affecting the service sector which accounts for more than 50 per cent of GDP. If political stability returns, the economy may come back to life again. The prospect is, however, bleak as no sign of political normalcy could be seen at the moment. The overall macro-economic achievements have turned pale because of political chaos.
The writer is an economist and columnist. [email protected]
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