Preparing for a new, pragmatic, Asia-friendly Japan

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Bunn Nagara
ONLY last Wednesday Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced his resignation, effective as soon as the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) could identify a successor. Within days, after a very brief leadership tussle, Yasuo Fukuda has practically sewn up the post.
Fukuda's influence within the party is not to be underrated, although against the headline-grabbing but gaffe-prone former foreign minister Taro Aso he may seem something of a dark horse. Fukuda was a challenger to Abe in the succession to Junichiro Koizumi last year when the then outgoing premier opted to support Abe.
Like Abe, Fukuda has no prior experience as a Cabinet minister, but instead has the unique distinction of being the country's longest-serving chief Cabinet secretary. Experienced, moderate and diplomatic, the 71-year-old is also the son of renowned former prime minister Takeo Fukuda.
His candidacy this time is supported by Koizumi, eight out of nine LDP factions, party elders, its parliamentary ally the New Komeito Party, Japan's influential business community and the general public.
Against all this Finance Minister Fukushiro Nukaga withdrew his candidacy, and Aso said he remained in the leadership challenge just to show it would not be a one-horse race.
Meanwhile, however, it might be too easy to misread Fukuda's character and position. He is seen as a dove and a critic of some of Abe's policies, but remains an LDP conservative.
In foreign policy, Fukuda is said to seek a less US-centric approach. Yet among his first announcements is that Japan should continue with its strategic alliance with the United States in general, and with the US-led coalition in Afghanistan in particular - Abe had staked his continuing premiership on the latter, an object of criticism by opposition parties.
What is more interesting and important in a Fukuda premiership is its approach to Asia, which in Japan means East Asia, and with Tokyo specifically, China. Fukuda is expected to favour more constructive policies, or at least avoid the provocative posturing of the past.
That would mean no major changes to Japan's post-war peace Constitution, which Abe was about to modify with a military build-up and more adventuresome deployments abroad. It would also mean an end to Abe's notion of an "arc of democracy" linking Japan with India, Australia and the United States to encircle if not contain China.
In contrast to the ideological bent of the past, Fukuda has acknowledged that China is doing its best to reform and open up its economy, and that Japan should cooperate with it in that. He has also assured China, South Korea and other Asian victims of Japan's imperialistic war that as prime minister he would not visit the controversial Yasukuni shrine.
Fukuda has indicated a readiness for dialogue with North Korea, of which a hawkish Aso is sceptical. But if Pyongyang is smart, it would welcome these overtures with more positive responses.
Much of what is being expected of Fukuda derives from the reputation of his father Takeo, who similarly moved from being chief Cabinet secretary to prime minister. But while a vacillating Takeo, seen as a foreign policy hawk, visited Yasukuni in 1978, Yasuo will not.
It was in 1977 that Takeo made the biggest impression for Japan in Asia by formulating what came to be called the Fukuda Doctrine. In a speech in Manila, the Japanese prime minister promised that Japan would never again be a military power but instead work to build peace and trust in the region.
The Fukuda Doctrine went beyond words to channel considerable Japanese aid to South-East Asia. To the region it meant a new positive era of relations with Japan, while within Japan it is taken as among the closest things the country had to a distinct and independent foreign policy.
For some, Koizumi and Aso also hanker after the Fukuda Doctrine, although their policy priorities and posturing indicate otherwise for many. The previous prime ministers could not remove themselves completely from Japan's role in a ruinous war in Asia, so they could not do much by way of building "peace and trust" in the region.
It may still be too early to expect much positive change from a Yasuo Fukuda premiership, despite the widespread temptation to think of a more Asia-friendly Japan. Despite the expectations and proven competence, Fukuda does not come to the premiership with the overrated expectations of Abe ("youngest post-war premier, first born after the war"), and that could work in his favour.
The Fukuda premiership is to be confirmed by parliamentary vote this Sunday, three days before one full year of Abe's premiership. With measured foresight and wisdom, Fukuda could make this the longest premiership to match his record as chief cabinet secretary.
In opting for Fukuda, Japan has made a clever and practical choice as leader to invest better in the future. To begin, it is poised to remove some of the suspicions and tensions of the recent past to the benefit of East Asia and the world, particularly Japan itself.
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thestaronline