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Rising tensions in Korean Peninsula

Sayed Kamaluddin | August 04, 2016 00:00:00


The continuing tension in the Korean peninsula has further heightened by Washington's decision to deploy its Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) missile in South Korea ostensibly responding to Pyongyang's back-to-back tests of a mid-range ballistic missiles in late June and mid-July. Washington's stakes are high. It has 28,000 troops stationed in South Korea to boost Seoul's defence against Pyongyang. It was a calculated risk taken by the US because it knew it would immediately spark strong reactions from both China and Russia.

 The United States and South Korea announced their decision on July 08 to deploy THAAD missiles in the South. A week later on July 16, Seoul announced that the missiles would be located at Seongju - rural county.  

There is opposition to missile deployment in South Korea itself. When South Korean Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-Ahn visited the proposed missile site to try to appease the residents, he was trapped in a minivan for hours by the angry protesters. He was pelted with eggs and water bottles by the Seongju residents who said that the missiles deployment makes their county a strategic target. The protestors also complained that the missile deployment carries health and environmental hazards. Over 2,000 demonstrators outside Seoul station chanted: "Let's block the deployment of THAAD, a threat to peace on the Korean peninsula."

CHINA'S CAUTION ON THAAD MISSILE DEPLOYMENT: Chinese President Xi Jinping had expressed his anger - even before the US decision was made public - against North Korea's drive to develop its nuclear capability defying UN resolutions. China is Pyongyang's sole major diplomatic and economic supporter. Addressing a group of visiting Asian Foreign Ministers in Beijing at the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICBMA) on  April 28 he said: "As a close neighbour of the peninsula, we will absolutely not permit war or chaos on the peninsula. This situation would not benefit anyone." The 26-member group includes Russia and many central Asian and Middle East nations. The US and Japan are among eight observers.    

A South Korean analyst at the Sejong Institute near Seoul, Cheong Seong-chang said: "The THAAD deployment in Korean peninsula  would reinstate 'Cold War' era confronting between South Korea, the US and Japan versus North Korea, China and Russia."

WHY CHINA IS SO CONCERNED: THAAD is a new addition to the United State's anti-ballistic missile/interceptor arsenal. Jeffrey Lewis in his Foreign Policy column highlighted that THAAD and systems like it, including Patriot Advance Capability (PAC - 3) interceptor, are designed to hit things as they zoom downward toward the earth - not as they go up. Japan deployed PAC - 3 interceptors in Tokyo ahead of North Korea's latest satellite launch.

Ankit Panda in an article in the Diplomat in February this year mentioned that THAAD is well-suited to intercept and destroy short, medium and intermediate range ballistic missiles in their terminal phase. In plain English, missile meets missile in mid-air; both missiles go 'Boom'"      

Independent analysts feel that the defence systems that the US has already deployed to safeguard its interests and assets are generally adequate to protect them in normal time. Besides, the likely economic fallouts of South Korea's China relations should have to be taken into consideration at a time when the whole world is suffering from economic slowdown. For example, China is South Korea's largest economic partner and a quarter of its exports go to China. In fact, soon after the announcement of THAAD's deployment in South Korea, its Kopsi stock market lost nearly $3.0 billion with shares in cosmetics, casino and travel companies bearing the burnt.

Whatever may be said about the possible North Korean missile advancement, the facts do not actually measure up to the doomsayers. The THAAD episode has already been catapulted into a lightning rod fomenting tensions between China and the US and South Korea. This is creating massive obstruction to the peace and development in the Korean Peninsula.

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