Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his military to invade Ukraine on February 24. Prior to invasion there were military buildups along the eastern and southern borders of Ukraine. The leaders of the Western Europe and the United States warned against the military buildups and cautioned that this was a prelude to large-scale invasion of neighbouring Ukraine. Moscow dismissed this as mere propaganda until its army marched across the border in the early hours of February 24. It could be mentioned here that a large chunk of southern and eastern territory of Ukraine had already been under the control of the secessionists supported by Moscow. In 2014, Russian army invaded Crimea and annexed it with Russian territory. Russia has named the current invasion as "special military operation in Ukraine".
Why Russia has chosen Ukraine as the target of the special military operation? Why it had annexed Crimea and created separatists zones along Ukraine's southern and eastern borders? The readers will have to look back to understand Russian behaviour.
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine like other countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia annexed with the communist empire declared independence. Germany got reunited with its eastern wing. Czechoslovakia was dissolved in 1993 creating Czech Republic and Slovakia. Yugoslavia was disintegrated into Servia, Croatia, Macedonia and Kosovo. Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia in Central Asia emerged as independent countries. Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan also declared independence.
The disintegration of the Soviet Union marked the end of the cold war. The United States trumped as the only superpower. It lost no time to encourage the European Union to embrace the newly emerged countries in Europe and integrate them into free market economy. It also animated the NATO to expand its memberships to the countries hitherto grouped under the Warsaw Pact. In 2004, NATO granted memberships to Poland, Hungary, Moldovia and Czech Republic, and invested heavily in upgrading the military and defence capability of new member countries. Russian Federation was still leaking its wounds and focused on integration of its military withdrawn from East Germany, Hungary and Czech Republic. In 2008, when NATO began its second phase of expansion and sought to invite Ukraine, Georgia, Belarus; Moscow warned NATO against the expansion and viewed the enlargement as an attempt to encircle the Russian Federation. Russian leaders expressed concerns that NATO would install long range ballistic missiles on its border with a view to cripple its defence capability. In the expansion of the military alliance, Moscow foreboded a challenge to its territorial integrity. It vowed to stall enlargement of NATO adjacent to its border.
Russia's threat was not without effect. NATO changed its course. It classified countries like Georgia, Azerbaijan, Ukraine and other countries in central Asia and Baltics as NATO friendly countries and established military cooperation. The European Union approved soft term credits to these countries to install fiscal disciplines. These military and fiscal supports contributed to modernisation of the military. The moribund economies got new lives and promoted trade and commerce with the European countries and beyond. McDonald and KFC penetrated into the Russian Federation and its neighbouring countries. Millions tested new brands of American burgers. All former Soviet block countries developed strong appetite to join the Euro-American political and military alliance - a trend that Russian leader Vladimir Putin noticed with profound disdain.
Putin who ascended to power some twenty years ago desperately wanted to reintegrate the countries of former Soviet Union, but he also realised that it was no longer attainable. Putin, nonetheless, drew inspiration from successful Prague invasion in 1968 and occupation of Hungary in 1956 with the support of the Warsaw Pact countries.
In August 1968, when the Soviet troops marched to Czechoslovakia, I was a student of the Dhaka University. My friends affiliated with the leftwing student organisation EPSU - politically aligned to Pro-Moscow National Awami Party, argued that the invasion was in response to the appeals of thousands of people who felt threatened at the policy of CIA inspired leader Alexander Dubcek. In those days, in the absence of electronic media, we would depend on the national newspapers. Following the Tashkent Agreement between India and Pakistan concluded at the arbitration of Moscow, Russian influence in the sub-continent was on the rise. Consequently, there was no demonstration against Russian invasion. Earlier in 1956, Moscow crushed an uprising in Hungary and there were few uproars in the region. But the situation kept changing. When Soviet Army marched across the hills in Afghanistan in 1978, there was world wide condemnation. Thousands of Afghan youth joined the Mujahedeen. The United States and its allies in Europe and Muslim countries in the Middle East poured military and economic assistance to the freedom fighters and millions of refugees who took shelter in Iran and Pakistan. Ten years of war against insurgency wrecked the Soviet economy, humiliated the army with colossal damage and turned the population against an unjust war. The army returned home demoralized and defeated.
Though the process of integration with EU and NATO slowed down, the United States and her European allies kept the door open. In November 2013, thousands of people in Ukrainian capital Kiev demanded President Viktor Yanukovych, an ethnic Russian, to ratify comprehensive trade and economic agreement with the European Union. Yanukovych defied the pressure and instead opted to have a closer relation with the bigger neighbour Russia. The EU was reluctant to grant loans until significant legislative reforms were carried out. On the other hand, Russia was not willing to offer large sums of money until Kiev agreed to join the Russian Federation. As the pressure mounted, Yanukovych fled to China and was replaced by Oleksandr Turchnov as interim president.
Moscow expressed deep concerns at the foreign interference in Ukraine and about the security of ethnic Russians in Crimea. The local government in Crimea at the support of Moscow held a referendum on the option whether people would prefer to join the Russian Federation as opposed to the status-quo. According to Crimean administration echoed by Russian government, people overwhelmingly voted to join Russian Federation. Duma, the Russian parliament, ratified Crimea's annexation with the federation. Addressing the Duma, following the ratification of Crimea's annexation, Putin said "guarantee of Ukraine's territorial integrity depends of Kiev's commitment to full protection of ethnic Russian's rights in Ukraine." Russia was expelled from the G-8 and economic sanctions were imposed in 2014.
In my essay, published in the Daily Times, Lahore on March 24, 2014, I had the audacity to warn that Ukraine risked further disintegration should the leaders failed to demonstrate political acumen and pragmatism. President Zelensky walked a tight rope. His country had the legitimate right to decide its future course of action. Independence and sovereignty are non-negotiable. But the leaders are expected to be visionaries and pragmatists. They are to weigh the cost and benefit ratio of the challenges and lead the nation taking into account the security of the population. Joining the NATO and the European Union are legitimate aspirations of the people, but these cannot be achieved at any cost. Zelensky had the time and options to negotiate with Russia which in no uncertain terms declared that it would not allow Ukraine to join the enemy's club. On the other hand, he could have assured the western countries to appreciate the reality and enable Ukraine to take the middle path. Instead, Zelensky welcomed American aid at greatest risks. He could not join the EU or NATO, but the country is being destroyed by massive bombardments. The schools, universities, hospitals, clinics, residential buildings, offices are being ravaged to the grounds. People are living in basements without heat and electricity. Over 2,500 civilians have been killed, millions became displaced and over 4 million became refugees in neighboring countries.
The people of Ukraine have put up heroic resistance and, in many instances, stalled the advance of the enemy forces. President Zelensky sought fighter jets and other sophisticated ammunitions but the United States and NATO did not acquiesce because of the risk involved in triggering World War III. The international community with the exception of a few have sanctioned Russia and the sanction is slowly but acutely affecting Russia. Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland told the Senate that "Thirty years of progress in Russia has been wiped out." Nonetheless, Russia has the arms and ammunitions to continue till Ukraine is destroyed.
There is no effective mediation to deescalate the crisis. Russia has reportedly sought economic and military assistance from China. On the other side, President Biden is travelling to Brussels next week to strengthen support to beleaguered Ukraine. Preparations are seemingly afoot for prolonged warfare in Ukraine.
Abdur Rahman Chowdhury is a former official of the United Nations.
darahman.chowdhury@hotmail.com