Bangladesh's post uprising administration is entering the most consequential phase of its tenure, as global volatility, regional militarisation, and the weaponisation of finance converge to test its ability to secure real strategic autonomy.
It has been quite a while since the BNP government took office in February 2026, and its brief honeymoon is now all but over. Domestic pressures have been sharpened by global turmoil, especially the Israel-U.S. war of aggression against Iran. Iran's retaliation, and the absence of any sign of de-escalation at the time of writing, has widened the conflict across West Asia and the Middle East, disrupted a significant share of global energy supplies through the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and placed the government's foreign and economic policy under severe strain. Bangladesh has indeed entered a crucial period of assessment: whether it can honour the promises of the 2024 July Uprising and the aspirations that drove millions into the streets, including demands for a fair and just political economy, amid a turbulent global moment in which the world holds its breath as U.S. President Trump threatens Iran that "an entire civilisation will die tonight, and it will never return."
The government's popularity and governing approach will also depend on how the country and its electorate hold the recently elected government to account, especially since the mass communication landscape has overwhelmingly given the BNP favourable coverage with little, if any, pushback, and tough questions, particularly on foreign policy and defence, which have been largely absent, even as Bangladesh sits at the fault lines of the Indo-Western and Sino-Global South axes. The easternmost outpost of Israel?aligned geopolitical influence bordering Bangladesh, operating through India's deepening security partnership with Israel, has become a cause of grave concern for many Bangladeshis. For many Bangladeshis, neighbouring India's expanding defence cooperation with Israel-a state indicted by the ICJ for genocide in Gaza?Palestine-has become a source of deep unease.
Analysts cite two structural advantages the BNP has over the Jamaat-NCP alliance in political governance. First are external tailwinds: Gulf monarchies and Western governments quietly backed the BNP in the name of stability, reinforcing investors' confidence, while major media alignment and superior grassroots level reach help secure narrative control. Second is the financial asymmetry: the BNP is dominated and supported by a large majority of the country's billionaires, an edge some economists say could aid economic revival through capitalist class cooperation. Seven of Bangladesh's ten richest candidates-all BNP-won, self financing up to 56 per cent of their Tk 396 crore campaigns, with billions more likely to have followed informally. With Tk 5-10 crore needed per constituency, such costs entrenched plutocratic capture.
Many would interpret this as business as usual: governance by billionaires and entrenched elites, for billionaires and elites, while the citizens-poor and working class people whose blood fuelled the July Revolution-are discarded once power is secured. The Company Raj's colonial legacy still lingers, deepening the disillusionment after the autocrat's fall.
The new government now has the opportunity to prove critics wrong. To translate national objectives into tangible outcomes, it must adopt a phased and transparent reform strategy: establishing an independent constitutional reform commission under the July National Charter; launching an anti corruption task force with judicial oversight; and prioritising budget allocations for state healthcare and education reform. Expanding vocational and technical training institutions will require public-private partnerships to align curricula with both labour market and global market needs.
Bangladesh must also urgently keep pace with the artificial intelligence sector (AI) to stay regionally competitive, especially as US sanctions are increasingly used as geopolitical pressure and reliance on external technology becomes risky. Building a self sustaining AI industry is now a strategic necessity, requiring the country to identify niche areas where it can gain comparative advantages in global supply chains. This demands substantial, long term investment in the AI ecosystem, with financial and institutional support for domestic and foreign firms, entrepreneurs, start ups, and collaboration with R&D networks and universities through technology transfer, and not least, maintaining sovereignty over AI data and wider data servers confined within the country. Although costly-running into several hundred crore takas-this should be seen as an investment in future competitiveness and strategic autonomy, not mere expenditure.
Along with economic diversification, diversification of the financial system is equally important. In a global environment defined by the erosion of the post-war international order and the weaponisation of U.S. sanctions, Bangladesh must take decisive steps to reduce its reliance on the U.S. dollar and the U.S.-dominated financial architecture. This includes decreasing dependence on systems such as SWIFT and payment networks like Visa, Mastercard, and PayPal. Alternatives to SWIFT are already emerging, with many countries, including Bangladesh, gradually adopting platforms like China's CIPS and Russia's SPFS-the latter being considered by India for facilitating Rupee-Ruble trade. To further support this transition, schemes designed to reduce dollar dependency and guard against U.S. financial coercion should be advanced through the establishment of dedicated banks and corporations that operate exclusively in non-U.S. dollar currencies and are ring-fenced and separate from domestic institutions engaged in U.S. dollar transactions.
This also includes expanding trade in alternative currencies through local currency settlement and bilateral currency swap agreements, developing or further mainstreaming domestic fintech and card payment systems such as TakaPay, and fostering a more self-sufficient, diversified economy away from being over reliant on the US-led Western financial systems. This also includes reducing over-reliance on both the RMG sector and the U.S. export market for RMG and service industry, by diversifying and having a sizeable backup beyond the U.S. market. A kind of strategic autonomy in international trade.
There is a common misconception that trading in non-U.S. dollars for international trade may attract U.S. sanctions. This could not be further from the truth. Trading in non-U.S. currencies does not, by itself, trigger U.S. sanctions. Sanctions exposure generally arises from dealings with sanctioned persons, entities, sectors, or activities, or from transactions with a U.S. nexus, regardless of whether the business is conducted in U.S. dollars or not. In some cases, secondary sanctions can also apply to non-U.S. persons who do business with sanctioned targets. The main nuance is that using U.S. dollars is not a blanket shield if the underlying counterparty or activity is prohibited.
Last but not least, change is also equally urgent in foreign and defence policy. The government must strengthen national defence capabilities to establish credible deterrence amid rising Israel aligned Indian regional hegemony-one of the central factors that drove the July uprising. This requires a dedicated Ministry of Defence led by a full time, professionally competent defence minister. Separating defence from the prime minister's portfolio would enable long term strategic planning, stronger institutional capacity, and a more credible deterrence posture. Without strong and effective security and defence capabilities, the volatility created by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty will only intensify.
As a result, economic growth and diversification could be undermined before they even have the chance to take off.
Bangladeshis have never lacked courage or conviction, yet the country stands at another crossroads, with hope resting uneasily in an elected duopoly shaped by two political dynasties whose grip still defines national power. For Generation Z and the wider public who led the July uprising, the moment demands reflection and strategic foresight success of which depends not only on transformation but on a blueprint for the "day after."
For a nation forged through struggle and resilience, reclaiming control over defence, economy, and national destiny through constitutional reforms as pledged in the July National Charter is not just policy but the defining task of this age of global uncertainty.
Ismail Y Syed is a London-based columnist and advises governments and NGOs on geopolitical risk. ismailysyed.substack.com