The evolving scenario both within the EU and also in other sub-regions in the world suggests, according to analysts, that the EU is entering a new politico-institutional cycle and the tasks and obstacles ahead look intimidating.
F. Zuleeg, A.M. Janis and A. Emmanouilidis have in this context drawn attention to the continuing confrontation that is continuing in Ukraine and the presence of an aggressive Moscow in the near future. They also have other factors that will cast shadows on the EU functions. That will include "fundamental transformations of Europe's societies driven by climate change and the loss of biodiversity, global technological revolutions, demography and an ageing population". It has also been noted that there is "increasing political fragmentation and polarisation" which are evolving as dangerous platforms for pluralist democracies.
Nevertheless, it is also being reiterated that the challenges should not be seen as a step towards despair, apathy, and inactivity, but should be viewed as a call towards unity.
However, recent evolving scenarios in Italy, France and Germany have raised questions as to how the emerging the crisis and increasing domestic political challenges will be overcome. Strategists are also worried as to whether there is calculated willingness to pool sovereignty at the EU level and abide by common decisions while encountering these issues.
It is consequently being suggested that the recent results of the 2024 European elections have underlined that EU requires a bold assessment of where it stands, to ascertain the future directional path it needs to tread on and a consensus on a representative and ambitious plan on how to achieve its goals. Consequently, geo-strategists are suggesting that the emerging new EU leadership needs to be helped by the political centre to use their majority in the EU institutions to promote more ambitious strategic objectives. It has also been observed that "if the pro-European mainstream will not do so, the political fringes will continue to grow".
The Members need to consider alternative routes to avoid impairing the existing EU framework. The 27 countries, it has been observed, should try to expand their level of cooperation by not restricting themselves within the legal confines of the current EU treaties, as was done in the case of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) or the Fiscal Compact. Such a procedure should follow the notion of a 'supra-governmental avantgarde' allowing the willing member states to progress, while adhering to a set of "predefined principles".
It has also been suggested that keen EU countries should be ready to jointly invest into European defence cooperation, financially supported by joint and common borrowing mechanisms. Usually such a measure would require a common effort by the Franco-German engine but, at this point of time this appears to have lost some strength because of internal divisions in both countries. As such, analysts are pointing towards Poland that will be assuming the EU Council Presidency in January 2025. Hope has also been expressed that some other EU countries can be potential promoters that could lead to a supra-governmental avantgarde situation pertaining to the European defence paradigm.
As the EU and its member states enter a new politico-institutional cycle for the next five years (2024-2029), the tasks and obstacles ahead appear to be challenging in this new era. As a former Permanent Representative of Bangladesh to the European Union, this scribe can only hope that everyone will come together to ensure a better future in this complex geo-political scenario. We must not forget that the EU is an amazing institution that has always stood by developing countries, including Bangladesh.
Europe and the Western world in general are suffering from increasing fragmentation and polarisation, amounting to a danger for liberal democracies.
For decades, Europe was able to isolate and shield itself from negative global trends, focusing on making economic progress within a broad centrist political consensus. However, what was happening between 2000 and 2016 has now started facing fundamental challenges for the democratic institutions of the EU.
In recent years, Europe, like many other regions of the world, has had to tackle a glut of fundamental crises and challenges. This has included the after-effects of the Covid pandemic, Russia's intrusion into Ukraine and the watershed moment surrounding the conflict in Gaza. All these trends appear to have cast long shadows on the core principles of international law. Analysts have observed that these crises and challenges are all taking place within the context of global instability, fragmentation and polarisation. War appears to have become a political instrument with national interest overtaking international principles associated with human rights and obligations.
Many developed countries seem to have decided that they will decide in their own way how to tackle a global challenge and others will have to follow their dictum. Social and geo-political reality, including the massive detrimental effects of climate variability and support for associated institutions appear to be missing.
They seem to be forgetting or overlooking consciously that rules that are not enforced undermine the entire system and multipolarity. Hindering global multilateral cooperation also affects the process of development, especially in a world where international growth engines like trade and investment are less effective without a functioning rules-based framework, such as the WTO. It needs to be understood by all Member States of the EU and also other developed countries that failing to have agreement or consensus on the least common denominators regarding common goals will affect the international functioning mechanism. It is then likely that it will create a downward spiral, further feeding conflict and division.
Some geo-strategists have also observed that such a scenario, instead of assisting in growth, will increase uncertainty, instability, and conflict for the entire world population. Many intractable conflicts in different parts of the world, particularly in Africa, will carry the risk of escalation. There might also be a proliferation of nuclear weapons, given the perceived need for countries to protect themselves in a more hostile and uncertain world. We need to understand that we must have linear solutions to emerging problems, and the EU could be the key for this purpose.
Accordingly, the EU's ability to act needs to be strengthened urgently to counter security threats in its neighbourhood and also its ability towards influencing the elaboration of more effective mechanisms of global cooperation.
It is true that recent election results - both at the EU and national level - suggest Europe is now entering a period of cautious political maneuvering, characterised by a debatable range of leaders. Nevertheless, the citizens of Europe should not give up their historical past of resolving problems through discussion.
Europeans need to remember that the formation of the European Union was not easy, and that it came through because of understanding the different connotations and denotations associated with evolving problems. The European Commission, the European Council and the European Parliament of the European Union have over the past few decades, through their function and response to problems, have not always been perfect, but they have remained the most successful example of integration when it came to overcoming deep-seated divisions and conflicts by creating enforceable multilateral rules.
In recent years, the ability of the EU to structurally develop further came under pressure but the difficulties were overcome carefully. This development was possible from the fact that in that scenario the EU system was saved by a confederation of member states, that gave it a supra-national and enforceable legal framework to govern common policies in predefined areas. This proactively entailed merging sovereignty and accepting that common decisions will not fully reflect narrow national interests.
This dynamic helped towards integrated steps with concrete benefits, such as the creation of the Single Market, Schengen, and the common currency.
Political objections and national sovereignty reflexes were overcome to the benefit of all.
Unfortunately, over the last few years the EU and its Members appear to have gradually moved away from this successful path.
The recent results of the 2024 European elections have cemented this trend. Now, at the level of national governments one can hardly find leaders who are willing to invest sufficient political capital into substantially strengthening and deepening cooperation at the European level. Financial analysts have suggested that this may be due to the circumstance where rather than sharing the benefits of integration, the EU now have to distribute costs, though arguably lower total costs than those that would have to be borne by countries acting on their own, which is politically a far more challenging proposition.
However, the number of aspirants that are queuing up to join the European Union club has grown, including now not 'only' the countries of the Western Balkans but also Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. Despite its shortcomings, the Union still remains attractive and a crucial instrument for Europe to react to transboundary challenges, within an increasingly challenging regional and global geopolitical and geo-economic environment.
Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador, is an analyst
specialized in foreign affairs, right to information and good
governance, can be reached at [email protected]
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