Thai: Will the army step in?

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury | Published: January 01, 2014 00:00:00 | Updated: November 30, 2024 06:01:00

As the political crisis in Thailand shows no sign of resolution, speculations are rife in capital Bangkok and elsewhere in the country that the army may intervene. Such a possibility received credence after the army indicated that nothing is ruled out if the instability continues, causing myriad problems for the nation. The army overthrew in 2006 the elected government of Thaksin Shinawatra, the self-exiled former prime minister and elder brother of present premier Yingluck Shinawatra. Now after seven years, if the same action from the army follows against Yingluck Shinawatra, it would not come as a surprise since many feel that a development of such nature appears to be somewhat inevitable in Thailand.
The Southeast Asian nation is in the grip of a severe political crisis. The protesters demanding the ouster of the government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra are showing increasing toughness in pressing their demand. The prime minister has vowed not to resign and called mid-term polls on February 02, which the opposition said it would boycott. The election is now at the centre of the controversy and the stand-off is unlikely to be resolved as the two sides have adopted diametrically opposite positions on the issue.
 As unrest is escalating and a tense situation prevails, the country is on the focus of the world. Analysts have kept their fingers crossed about the shape of things to come in the days ahead as many were  speculating an army take-over or some kind of stern actions, like emergency, to contain the situation. However, many others believe that the present uneasy condition  may continue for some more time and both sides will test each other's patience and ability in confronting the situation. The King, who is highly revered, may also intervene.
Yingluck Shinawatra made history by becoming the first women prime minister of the country following a resounding victory of her Pheu Thai Party in the general elections in 2011. A stranger in politics, she owes the success largely on the coattail of her elder brother and former prime minister Thaksin Shinewatra, who lives abroad. Thaksin was quite popular in the rural areas in Thailand and also with segments of the middle class. But the billionaire businessman-turned-politician was ousted by a military coup and was also sentenced to prison terms on allegation of corruption. He has been living in exile since his overthrow in the 2006 military coup except for a brief visit to Thailand in 2008. He did not return to Thailand even after her sister won the polls and formed the government. Evidently, he did not want to embarrass the government although impression gained in the country that it is he who was calling the shots on important issues.
Recently, the government pardoned Thaksin, facilitating his return to the country. But this has infuriated a large number of people, who are thronging the streets in capital Bangkok demanding that the government must go. Initially in small numbers, the protestors grew in strength and the authorities were grappling to contain the agitation. Demonstrators had cut off power supply to the police headquarters and also gathered in great number in front of the army headquarters. While attempting take over the prime minister's office, the protesters clashed with the riot police. They clashed with the "Red Shirts" demonstrators, who are pro-government and mainly supporters of Thaksin Shinawatra. Several deaths were reported in the clashes and the situation was turning explosive with the tourists keeping themselves off from Thailand and foreign missions asking their nationals to take greater care of their security.
Prime Minister Yingluck offered an olive branch to the anti-government demonstrators by dissolving parliament and announcing mid-term elections. But protestors, led by former opposition MP Suthep Thaugusaban,  asked the prime minister to quit and set up a "national Council" to run the country. Yingluck is refusing to step down while the demonstrators remain hell-bent on overthrowing her government.
The protestors are pursuing a goal of ridding the country of the influence of Thaksin Shinawatra. They say they are frustrated with his dominance and also disillusioned with the current democratic practice. They have proposed to set up a "people's council" with leading figures from different professions to replace Yingluck administration. The government, not surprisingly, has poured cold water on the proposal.
This is a fluid situation. All depends on the strength of the protesters as to how long they can continue the agitation and how much crowd they can garner in support of their demand. For Prime Minister Yingluck, she has hardly any choice but to resort to strict measures to confront the challenge.
Thailand is not known for stable democracy. The nascent system of pluralistic pattern of government has been ailing mainly because of politician's mistakes or actions that have not been compatible with the hopes and aspirations of the people.
Yingluck should not have showed unnecessary leniency to her brother Thaksin who is otherwise quite powerful even if he is not physically present in the country because of problems related to his sentence.
The prime minister has lately invited the opposition for talks on reforming the pattern of rule, but the other side has rejected the overture. Earlier, the opposition resigned en masse from parliament that was later dissolved. Thailand can ill-afford a long political stalemate and hence is the speculation that the army may intervene any time. This is a clear possibility unless the political parties show wisdom by accommodating each other's views for reaching a broad understanding.
zaglulbss@yahoo.com