The economy is bleeding as the oborodh (blockade) is disrupting supply chains. Every day the country is losing more than Tk 20 billion (2,000 crore) due to blockade and hartal (strike). The amount would stand at Tk 25 billion (2,500 crore) if the daily loss is calculated taking into account the 25 per cent of the total industrial production loss, the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) estimates.
The businesses are incurring losses. Government's revenue mobilisation is hampered. The blockade has badly hit farm incomes, disrupted inter-district road and rail transport and hampered export. People are burnt alive in arson attacks on public transports.
Education, particularly examinations have been very adversely affected. The current political turmoil has set a record by continuing the programme for 30 consecutive days.
Yet the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) are rigid on their respective
positions. There is no sign from either side to bring an end to the stalemate.
The BNP-led combine has been claiming that the agitation is aimed at restoring democratic rights of the people. The AL-led government has opted for foiling the agitation through administrative measures instead of looking for a political solution.
But they have not yet succeeded in doing so. The ruling AL-led 14-Party Alliance has decided to take to the streets to resist the ongoing
violence.
They will hold a series of programmes across the country to protest against violence. The use of excessive force has worsened the crisis. People and businesses are paying a heavy price.
The countrywide blockade and hartal have severely restricted movement of the people. They are left in a state of uncertainty. Educational institutions are forced to remain closed.
There has been large-scale arrest. Opposition activists are rarely seen in the streets perhaps for fear of detention. All sectors, including garment, agriculture, real estate, wholesale and retail trade suffer the brunt of the ongoing crisis.
The country has already lost at least $10 billion directly in physical damages and lost production, incomes and profits since the BNP-led alliance launched non-stop blockade on January 06, according to estimates of various chambers and trade associations.
The garment sector, whose contribution accounts for 81 per cent of total exports and 15 per cent of the GDP (gross domestic product), has lost Tk 252.75 billion (25,275 crore) in the last one month. During the same period, transport sector counted a loss of Tk 90 billion (9,000 crores), agriculture Tk 86.43 billion (8,643 crore), real estate Tk 75 billion (7,500 crore) and tourism Tk 63 billion (6,300 crore). Ports and bridges lost Tk 9.92 billion (992.4 crore, ceramics Tk 6.0 billion (600 crore), poultry Tk 5.48 billion (548.4 crore), plastics Tk 5.35 billion (535.5 crore), insurance Tk 4.5 billion (450 crore), frozen foods Tk 2.8 billion (280 crore), hawkers Tk 4.5 billion (450 crore) and importers Tk 3.1 billion (301.5 crore).
The jute sector counted a loss
of Tk 5.0 billion (500 crore). Factories were forced to cut production up to 30 per cent, according to the Bangladesh Jute Mills Association.
The loss in the tanneries stands at Tk 4.59 billion (459 crore) due to damage of t raw hides and skin, failure to meet export deadline and bring chemicals from ports, said the Bangladesh Tanners Association.
Stock markets have also been hit. The Dhaka Stock Exchange fell below 4,700 mark for the first time in the last five months.
Portfolio investment in the stock market fell 18 per cent in January compared to the same month last year as foreign fund managers adopted a go-slow strategy.
Small businesses, handlooms and boutiques, which are dotted across the country but rely on the capital and other major business centres to buy and sell their products, have also been counting losses.
The shop-owners have lost Tk 90 billion (9,000 crore) in lost profits, according to Bangladesh Shop Owners Association. Remittances also went down last month.
Analysts maintain that the prevailing crisis should be resolved politically. Use of force will fuel further violence. It is necessary to get to the bottom of the crisis to take the country out of this turmoil.
The present political impasse is rooted in the abolition of the system of non-partisan caretaker government by the AL-led government in June 2011.
The crisis re-surfaced on the occasion of the first anniversary of the one-sided national polls of 2014. Many analysts and international funding agencies forecast a slide in growth rate, slow investment and sluggish economic activity under the impact of the ongoing blockade.
Diplomats and representatives of donor agencies have called for a dialogue to break the political impasse and end the ongoing violence. They have expressed grave concern over the loss of lives in the blockade being enforced by the BNP-led 20-Party Alliance.
It is obvious that a new election is needed for establishing the legitimacy of the government.
The writer is an economist and columnist.
jamaluddinsyed23@yahoo.com.au