Which came first, the hen or the egg? It's an everlasting question. So, is the query, which is more vital - economics or politics? Marxian theory is clear and explicit about the fundamental significance of the economy - economic foundation determines the politico-social superstructure. Socialism claiming itself to be built on Marxian theory had have a lead time in the 20th century. But following the collapse of the Soviet Union and its East European allies by the early 1990s, socialism has actually disappeared in the West. It is maintaining a mutated existence in China and Vietnam. Only North Korea seems to have stuck to the guns of the 20th century communist state. The triumphant march of capitalism in the late 20th and early 21st century is not also trouble-free. In fact, it is facing terrible challenges since the world-wide economic downturn of 2007-2008. There are faint signs of recovery in the rattled economies of the western countries. But whether the positive processes of recovery will be enduring-is the trillion dollar question. In the economically embattled countries such as Greece, Spain, Portugal, Cyprus and Italy, shuttered economies have led to political crises and instability. Governments rapidly changed as earning shrank, pensions eroded and unemployment increased in a fast pace. Politics in these capitalist societies have, indeed, become subservient to highly unstable economies thirsty for bailouts of billions of dollars and Euros from the IMF, the World Bank and European Central Bank as well as stronger economies such as Germany.
What is happening nearer home? What is the relationship between politics and economics in South Asia, especially Bangladesh? If we have to take heed of what finance Minister Abul Maal A Muhith has been saying recently, we have to believe that unstable and uncertain climate in the country's political sphere is posing a grave threat to economic life and development. He has squarely put the blame on the uncertainty created by politics for the current stagnation in investment. It is common knowledge that investments had been sluggish and poor even before the pre-polls opposition movement started since October 2013. Conflicts and clashes between the ruling party and the government on one side and opposition parties, on the other, created a violent and uncertain atmosphere totally unfavourable to all enterprises and investment. Under such conditions, the elections to parliament on January 05, 2014 apparently failed to inspire confidence and trust in the post-election political system. The local government-level Upazila elections, in which the opposition parties took part eventually, seemed to be flawed. The last two rounds out of a total of five were marked by violence and alleged abuse of the administration, and the musclemen of the ruling party ensured a questionable better result for their party.
The total impact of all these appears to have been one of further uncertainty and confusion about the politico-social stability of the nation. Recent abductions, murders and disappearance of many, including political activists of both the ruling and the opposition parties, have further darkened the environment. The notorious abduction and murder of seven locally prominent politicians, including a lawyer, and their companions have created anger and dismay all over the country. The alleged link of high officials of the security forces some of whom are close relatives of high-level politicians, have led to greater confusion, rage and disappointment. Common men are no more in a mood to accept feeble official explanations that these are only scattered incidents and have no major implication for the law and order situation.
Add to this the ongoing conflicts and clashes between the junior doctors and students and media persons in Dhaka, Rajshahi and elsewhere, you have a negatively dynamic picture of an evolving polyarchy.
If politics is not healed early by the feuding political sides, the ruling party will remain compelled to depend only on administrative and security machinery. This is dangerous in a situation where political and moral credibility of the ruling class is in question. The degenerate, incompetent and corrupt segments of administration and coercive instruments of the government may and do take full advantage. In a manner of speaking, they run riot. Polyarchy intensifies and threatens to descend into anarchy.
One cannot still say that the point of no return has been reached. It may yet be possible to bring back politico-economic stability and dynamic growth and development if dialogues between the political adversaries lead to consensus on important national issues including the nature of the interim government during elections to make them credible. If this is not done early business and enterprise will not take off. Investments, both domestic and foreign, will continue to be oppressively stagnant. A cynical ADB (Asian Development Bank) will justify a comparatively low GDP (gross domestic production) growth of 6.2 per cent for the year 2014-15. In addition the banks and financial institutions in their present shaky position will continue to wallow in Tk 100 billion (one hundred thousand crores) idle money.       Â
Dr. Mizanur Rahman Shelley, founder Chairman of Centre for Development Research, Bangladesh (CDRB) and Editor quarterly "Asian Affairs", was a former teacher of Political Science in Dhaka University and former member of the erstwhile Civil Service of Pakistan (CSP) and former non-partisan technocrat Cabinet Minister of Bangladesh.
The politico-economic doldrums
Mizanur Rahman Shelley | Published: May 16, 2014 00:00:00 | Updated: November 30, 2024 06:01:00
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