The question that has been uppermost in the minds of the people since the recent calls from the UN/the US/and the EU to end the spate of dangerous violence that has gripped the Bangladesh nation has been about India's role. So far, New Delhi has kept itself aloof from expressing any opinion in public that has further enhanced their curiosity. Nevertheless, based on past experiences, it is now widely believed in Bangladesh that India's views about the current disturbances would no doubt have a great impact, if not the deciding one, on how and when peace would return to Bangladesh.
The reason why members of the public believe so is because they have seen that leading to the January 05, 2015 elections, it was New Delhi that had backed the Awami League (AL) to hold those elections by openly taking sides against the UN/the EU and the US that had supported all- party elections. In fact, the UN Secretary General had involved his good offices to encourage the AL- led government to hold all-party elections, albeit unsuccessfully. Washington had then taken a very unusual step by sending its Ambassador in Dhaka, Dan Mozena, to New Delhi for support to hold all- party elections, unsuccessfully. Efforts of the UN and the US had failed, as had the wishes of the majority of the people of Bangladesh, because New Delhi sided against the world opinion on Bangladesh elections.
The international powers are now more focused on Bangladesh than they were leading to the January 05,2015 elections because they fear that the current disturbances in the country carry dangerous omen for Bangladesh and the region. These powers, in addition to their calls from their respective capitals/headquarters, have now instructed their envoys in Dhaka to engage themselves with the Awami League and the BNP for a peaceful and negotiated settlement. They met the BNP leaders and the Foreign Minister and addressed a letter to the Prime Minister. These initiatives underline that the envoys are engaged in talking behind the scene with the two parties and the dialogue for which the nation has been praying has in fact already started.
Diplomatic initiatives are almost always slow, in fact always. Nevertheless, in this instance, the process will be slow because the two protagonists that will decide the end of the initiative of the envoys are in an asymmetrical political conflict. The ruling party, with its hold on the government and its control of the law enforcing agencies, believes that it would be able to resolve the BNP/Jamaat movement by use of force. The BNP/Jamaat and its allies, with the withdrawal of total democratic space from them and with the law enforcing agencies showing them no mercy in dealing with acts of violence being committed by their activists, have been pushed to the corner where ending their movement is not an option as they know that will mean not just ending a political movement but the end of their party, at least for the immediate and long-term future. Therefore, because of the asymmetry, they are more than eagerly looking forward to a political settlement to the country's current political problem.
The fact that 16 countries have engaged their envoys in Dhaka to negotiate between the AL and the BNP should not also be taken as a simple initiative because these countries are important to Bangladesh that even the AL Government cannot wish away, the statements of its ministers and party leaders notwithstanding. The Japanese Ambassador is in the group of the 16 Ambassadors. Japan does not normally involve its envoy anywhere in an initiative that interferes in a host country's internal affairs. In the BNP's last term, Japan distanced itself from other countries that wanted to put pressure on the government on issue of holding free and fair elections.
The nation is on its knees praying for an early and peaceful resolution to its tryst with dangerous political uncertainty. This notwithstanding, they feel that the international efforts would depend on India that has not yet shown overt interest in Bangladesh's current problems. However, New Delhi and Washington have discussed Bangladesh's problems during Obama-Modi meeting in New Delhi in January. Meantime, New Delhi has not given the AL-led government any hint that it would help it out in its distress like the Congress had leading to the January 05, 2015 elections. In fact, the BJP government has kept a distance from the AL-led government since coming to power in May 2014. The AL-led government's overtures towards China witnessed during Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's visit to Beijing in early June soon after the BJP had assumed power has been one reason for the distancing.
Nevertheless, the AL-led government was hoping that Prime Minister Modi would visit Dhaka during the Independence Day celebrations. Latest reports from New Delhi have suggested that he would not undertake the visit with the situation as it is now in the country. Meanwhile, Mamata Banarjee met Narendra Modi this week in New Delhi. Media reports in Dhaka had made it appear like the meeting would lead to New Delhi offering the two deals to Bangladesh. Nothing to that effect has happened because Mamata Banarjee had met the Indian Prime Minister to plead for the Centre's assistance to pressing financial issues of West Bengal. She has no influence in New Delhi as she did have in 2011 when she stopped the Congress government from handing the two deals with Dhaka ready to make the land transit permanent by using the 20 Trinamool seats in Lok Sabha to force the Congress-led government under threat of bringing down the government.
Press reports in Bangladesh on Mamata Banarjee and the two deals have been misleading. Constitutionally, the BJP government can hand both the deals to Bangladesh effortlessly on its own with political will. Therefore, it would be reasonable to consider that the reason is elsewhere. When the Congress government had looked at AL-led government in January of 2009, Sheikh Hasina had assumed power with a 3/4th majority. The BJP government, when it assumed power in May 2014, looked at an Awami League government with serious problems of legitimacy because of the way the January 5 elections were held.
Meanwhile, there is no reason to believe that New Delhi has not noted the way the AL has withdrawn all democratic spaces from the opposition and its connection to the break of violence that has led to the calls from the international community upon the AL led government to start dialogue with the opposition. New Delhi is also aware that the call for a dialogue has also come from the same civil society leaders in the Indian capital that had been vocal for total commitment of the Indian government to the AL led government leading to the January 05, 2015 elections for saving secularism in Bangladesh from falling victim to the Islamic fundamentalist forces.
Thus these recent developments in New Delhi related to Bangladesh and its current political problems suggest that it is a matter of time for India to back the international initiatives for a negotiated settlement to the dangerous political situation in Bangladesh, if not in the act already behind the scene. New Delhi is well aware that if the problem is not resolved through the democratic options, it could bring international terrorist forces in Bangladesh's current turmoil with dangerous consequences to India's security concerns in its fragile northeast.
A career diplomat, the writer is a former Ambassador.
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