Ukraine crisis: War of words cast a shadow over peaceful coexistence

Only three days after Russian President Vladimir Putin said on June 19 that Russia does not claim any "ephemeral superpower status" at the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum, European Union foreign ministers at a meeting at Luxemburg extended the damaging economic sanctions against Russia for six months. An EU spokesperson was quoted by the agencies as saying: "EU has extended economic sanctions against Russia until January 31, 2016 with a view to complete implementation of the Minsk agreement."

Meanwhile, subsequent 'words of war' that were exchanged in quick succession between the Western capitals and Moscow was noticed by the world with added concerns that peaceful coexistence may be at stake unless the rising tension is toned down quickly.

There is no question that US-led NATO's encirclement policy threatening Russian borders has annoyed and caused concern in Moscow, prompting angry response against the attempt. However, the situation further worsened following British Defence Secretary Michael Fallon's announcement that UK has agreed to NATO's extension of rapid reaction force by three years. He told BBC on June 21 that 1,000 troops would be sent next year and 3,000 in 2017 "chiefly in response to the threat posed by Russia. After that a battalion will be committed in each year until 2021".    

The very next day, in the midst of the worst stand-off between Russia and the West since the Ukraine crisis, US Defence Secretary Ashton Carter characteristically upped the ante and said at a joint press conference with three Baltic defence ministers prior to NATO ministerial talks: "We will temporarily stage one armoured brigade combat team's vehicles and associated equipment in countries in central and eastern Europe." He added: "While we do not seek a cold, let alone a hot war with Russia, we will defend our allies."       

A news agency report pointed out that the US embassy in Warsaw said the "temporary" deployment would include approximately "250 tanks, Bradleys, and self-propelled howitzers, and associated armoured brigade combat team equipment in Baltic and Central European countries."

Putin, however, sounding a mild note of warning said that the Western countries shouldn't meddle in Moscow's affairs and speaking through ultimatums would have no effect. While accusing Western countries of imposing their standards and models on others, Putin pointed out that Russia always proceeds with mutual respect and looks for "common solutions to common problems." He said Moscow wants to protect its interest and also wants "equitable relations with all members of the international community." For a change, perhaps, he appeared somewhat conciliatory.

SABRE-RATTLING CONTINUES:  However, while facing the US's containment policy by using former Soviet republics, Russian President also said in the middle of June that Russia would add more than 40 new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) to its nuclear arsenal this year. ICBMs have a minimum range of more than 5,500 km (3,400 miles). He has also reminded the US and the West several times that Russia must maintain its nuclear deterrence to counter what he sees as growing security threats, and Moscow reserves the right to deploy nuclear weapons in Crimea. He qualified it as "in self-defence."

It may be recalled that the US and EU had imposed punitive measures against Russian banking, oil and defence sectors in July last year after Malaysian Airline flight MH17 was shot down over Ukraine's disputed territory. The West acted even before it was conclusively determined which warring group - the pro-Russian rebels or Ukraine's soldiers - was actually responsible for the shooting amidst confusion and denial from both.

The Ukraine ceasefire accord signed in the Belarus capital Minsk earlier in February was largely held but Kiev and rebels in eastern Ukraine exchange charges almost daily over breaches, and observers reported sharp resumption of fighting early this month. The conflict in eastern Ukraine has already claimed in excess of 6,500 lives and widespread destruction and has forcibly displaced over one million people. An UNHCR (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees) estimate says out of them 237,000 are now living as refugees in Russia, while 823,000 are internally displaced. Over the course of the year, the total number of refugees in Russia swelled from 3,400 to 231,800, with Ukrainians now constituting 98 per cent of all refugees in Russia.      

On the Ukraine crisis, Putin reiterated that not only Russia, but Western countries should also exert influence over the conflicting sides in the country, while the Minsk agreements should be fully implemented in order to settle the crisis in a peaceful and political way. In this context, referring to Russia-US relations, Putin hoped that joint efforts by both the countries in fighting against common threats such as terrorism, drug trafficking and so on, could serve as the foundation for restoring the bilateral relationship.        

Pointing out that the sanctions war is inflicting damage on both Russia and the West, Putin said that the Russian economy is not in a catastrophic state. In the near future, Russia could ensure an economic growth at the average global rate of about 3.5 per cent, an annual labour productivity growth at 5.0 per cent and annual inflation at 4.0 per cent. The Russian government, Putin claimed, is consistently trying to solve domestic economic problems, create a liberal and favourable business climate and is ready to develop with all countries in the world on a reciprocal basis.

DIVISION WITHIN THE EU: Despite an outward façade of unity, the EU is divided internally on the question of continued sanctions against Russia. While the hardcore European countries like the UK, Germany and France strongly support the sanction, Poland and the Baltic countries have fallen in line. Other countries such as Greece, Austria, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia have openly called for putting an end to the sanctions.

Currently Italy is going through a debate: is the EU policy on Russia in Italy's national interest? This is the main question the people ask and the reason why the country's two main rightist opposition parties, led by Berlusconi and Matteo Salvini, have often criticised the ruling Democratic Party for having been submissive to the Obama-Merkel hard line on the Ukrainian crisis.

Such differences of views were recorded by the Italian daily Corriere della Sera in its recent interview with Putin while Italian Foreign Affairs Minister Paolo Gentiloni has clearly stated that Rome has "no reason to not believe the Russian president's intentions on the Ukrainian crisis." This quite contrasts with the EU official stand.

As reported by Italian journalist Andrea Fais in the Global Times, Putin's visit to the expo in Milan after the G7 meeting in Germany has had a wide appeal among the Italian media. Although criticism was expressed by some analysts and the Ukrainian immigrant community living in Italy, in this visit Putin was able to join Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and the opposition leader Silvio Berlusconi both of whom consider relations with Moscow "as a basic point of the Italian foreign policy." Putin, knowing Rome's sensitive spot, in his speech at the Russian Pavilion at Milan expo said that Italy is Russia's second important partner in the EU and the fourth in the world.  Putin said Italian companies were losing about $1.12 billion due to the sanctions against Russia and added, Russia can easily find other partners outside of the West but it would be a pity if the bilateral relations were hopelessly damaged.

Meanwhile, world leaders should remember that acrimony over Crimea or for that matter any other regional dispute needs to be dealt with carefully before it assumes a far greater dimension seemingly defying a solution. It is easy to fan and stoke an emotional cause by average politicians who may feel important for its initial success, but it requires a statesman and his acumen to rein in it when it gets out of hand.

[email protected]