Ukraine: Will the ceasefire hold?

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Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury | Published: September 10, 2014 00:00:00 | Updated: November 30, 2024 06:01:00

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Intermittent shelling and gunfire shattered the shaky truce in the eastern Ukraine. There is a fear the government troops and the pro-Russian separatists are taking advantage of the slackening of the war to shore up their respective strength for a bigger confrontation in the days ahead. Heavy fighting around the flashpoint cities in the troubled region threatened the tenuous truce even though both the sides claim that the ceasefire is by and large holding. The 12-point agreement for cessation of the hostilities was signed last Friday.
The ceasefire accord came during the dying moments of a NATO summit in Newport, Wales, Britain, when United States president Barack Obama and his fellow alliance leaders were drawing up strategies to confront Russia which, they allege, is not only backing the separatists in eastern Ukraine, but is also sending troops to fight the Kiev government troops. Russian president Vladimir Putin unveiled the ceasefire proposal just ahead of the summit and some analysts say it was calculated to head off harsh NATO measures against Kremlin. In any case, the truce was agreed upon as Ukraine president Petro Poroshenko and his Russian counterpart gave consent to the halting of the war. However, many remain sceptic about the effectiveness of the ceasefire.
Earlier, pro-West government of Ukraine sought urgent help from the United States and the European allies as Putin was talking tough on Ukraine. He threatened that Russian forces could easily take Kiev, the capital of the country, if he so wished. The Kiev government is struggling desperately to preserve the territorial integrity of the country in the face of aggressive postures from Moscow while helping the largely Russian-origin people in eastern Ukraine. Kremlin has already "annexed" Crimea, an autonomous part of Ukraine. The West had to sallow the bitter pill even though they continue to claim that Crimea remains a part of Ukraine.
Despite a semblance of normality in the sense that Russia apparently reconciled with the pro-Western influence in the Ukraine, Kremlin took the bold stance in annexing the Crimea and then supporting the pro-Moscow separatists in eastern Ukraine.
President Putin came under increasing pressure not to accept the developments in Ukraine and this has been exemplified by the situation in Crimea as a sequel to the diminution of Moscow's domination in Kiev.
The collapse of the pro-Moscow government in Ukraine following Western-supported movement, had come as a big blow for Moscow since it supported a president, who had to leave the country to escape public wrath. Embattled president Victor Yanukovych reached an understanding with the opposition to end the long-running political crisis in the country, but he had to quit the scene in a humiliating manner as the opposition chose a new leader to oversee the interim phase. Before its fall, the Yanukovych government reached an understanding brokered by the European Union and also supported by Russia on a variety of issues related to the political affairs of the country. The fall of the Yanukovych government was a big setback for Kremlin.
But Putin, keen to re-establish Moscow's authority and enhance his own leadership image, took Crimea first and then threw his weight behind the separatists in the eastern part of Ukraine. The government troops recently made advances in the rebel-held strongholds but had to retreat and it is believed that Russian forces directly took part in the skirmishes.
The NATO summit took place against this background and the leaders minced no words in denouncing the "aggressive" designs of Moscow. They announced fresh curbs on Russia despite the ceasefire as NATO believes Kremlin is unlikely to fully withdraw its involvement in eastern Ukraine because of myriad reasons - one of those being Putin's popularity in increasing in Russia because of his nationalistic fervour. Western powers say that Moscow has been orchestrating insurrection as a part of the land grab that started with the annexation of Crimea in March, this year.
The ceasefire is hanging in the balance since both sides are understood to be consolidating their respective positions. Allegations and counter-allegations are making the observance of the truce difficult. However, no side is expected to officially break the truce unless it becomes imperative for promoting their interests.
zaglulchowdhury@yahoo.com