Upazila elections: BNP wins first round but Jamaat surprises all

Going by the reaction of the ruling party to the first round of the upazila elections, it would appear as if the ruling party candidates fared exceedingly well. In fact, their candidates performed disastrously. In the 97 chairman positions contested on February 19 in the first round, with four more rounds to go in the next few weeks, 66 incumbents were backed by the Awami League (AL), 12 the Bangladesh Nationalist Party BNP) and eight by the Jamaat. In a decisive turnabout, the number of AL-backed upazila chairmen dropped to 34 while the BNP-backed ones increased to 43 and Jamaat to 12. Together Jamaat and BNP won 55 of the 97 positions of upazila chairman.

The AL was not bothered that the candidates it backed were drubbed. Instead it claimed the elections were free and fair to convince the people that the national elections were likewise also free and fair and therefore there should be no question about the legitimacy of its government and that there should also not be any question of another national election anytime soon. One senior leader of the ruling party claimed that the first round was a political victory for the ruling party! The Prime Minister asked the BNP to apologise for joining the upazila elections while it boycotted the national elections!

These arguments of the ruling party were no doubt made from a state of denial to reality. The BNP was quick to dismiss the freeness and fairness of the elections and blamed the Election Commission (EC) for blatant partisanship. It claimed that had the elections been free and fair, candidates it backed would have taken 95 per cent of the posts. It further claimed the EC's role in the first round proved why it had stayed away from the national elections; that the EC, subservient to the government, would have implemented its blueprint to defeat the opposition candidates by fraudulent means and at any cost.

The media coverage of the upazila elections established to some extent BNP's claims that the EC would not go against the interests of the ruling party and the administration would also play a partisan role in favour of the ruling party. The private TV channels caught on their video footages enough evidence that showed blatant interference by the partisan administration, particularly the police, on behalf of the ruling party candidates that a compliant EC overlooked.  In protest, the BNP called for hartal in eight of the upazilas the day after it and the Jamaat had defeated the ruling party-backed candidates in a comprehensive manner.

The results of the first round underscored the new realities in Bangladesh politics since the "deeply flawed" January 05 elections, the ruling party's state of denial notwithstanding. The elections were even more national in character than the five city corporation elections held before the national elections in which the people had given a clear verdict against the ruling party. The February 19 elections were the first opportunity for the people to express their frustrations over the national elections in which their right to vote was taken away from them. They therefore cared very little about the local character of the upazila elections and voted with frustrations arising out of the January 05 elections upper most in their minds.

That was one reason why they turned out in large numbers and voted against the candidates of the ruling party that benefitted the BNP and the Jamaat. However, the most significant outcome of the first round of upazila elections was the performance of the Jamaat. The ruling party had been trying to establish that the nation was behind it for actions against the Jamaat for its anti-liberation role. In the elections on February 19, there were 97 posts of vice-chairman (male) and another 97 posts of vice-chairman (female) that were also contested. In the total picture, the BNP won 112 positions, the AL 92 and the Jamaat 46. Jamaat also won 15 per cent of the total votes cast that surprised everyone.

Jamaat's performance placed it at third position nationally and dismissed the ruling party's claim that Jamaat's influence had been contained and declining.  In contrast, the Jatiya Party (JP) as the official opposition in parliament won only five seats of which just one was that of chairman. In some of the places, Jamaat defeated not just AL-backed candidates but BNP-backed ones as well. In a few of those places, Jamaat-backed candidates won where the party was accused by the ruling party for acts of terror and attacks on the minority community.

The elections did not in anyway give any legitimacy to the government because of the participation of the BNP/Jamaat for people saw no reason to believe, as argued by the ruling party, that national elections and local elections are the same.  Instead, the elections established that at the grassroots, the BNP/Jamaat's hold was solid and on the increase and that the nature the January 05 elections had only weakened the standing of the ruling party at the local level.

The results also proved that the ruling party's self-acclaimed view that the BNP/Jamaat were in a disarray countrywide in the aftermath of the January 05 elections while it remained strong and united was not a correct one. In fact, a senior Minister, contrary to views of his colleagues, stated in the media that the poor show of the AL-backed candidates was due to infighting in the party. Contrary to the dismissive views of the ruling party about the strength of BNP/Jamaat, the results could very well point to a process through which the BNP/Jamaat were strengthening their respective parties and at the grassroots to prepare themselves for their movement should the AL-led government try to continue in office without new elections soon.

There would be four more rounds of upazila elections. Therefore, it would not be appropriate to draw final conclusions on what these elections would mean for the country's extremely fluid political situation as a consequence of the grave problems that have arisen from the January 05 elections. Nevertheless, at the very least, the February 19 upazila elections established that the country's political reality and Awami League stood at polar opposites. The BNP's claim that it would have won 95 per cent of the seats on January 05 elections have been exaggerated. However, there was little doubt that the first round of upazila elections established that BNP/Jamaat still retained strong hold at the grassroots and the elections for the future rounds of upazila elections would add to their strength. The ruling party could expect more or less the same trend with people unhappy with it for the way the January 05 elections were held.

The ruling party, therefore, would do itself good if it stopped teasing and taunting the opposition like it was playing a game and focused on the evolving realities. Otherwise, it may soon find that it is not standing on any solid ground with the people moving away from it and it could remain in power only by using brutal state power.

The writer is a retired career Ambassador.  [email protected]