On November 04, 2014 voters turned out in reasonable numbers during the mid-term elections to hand in an expected brown, if not a black eye to the current Democratic Obama Administration. This happened despite the fact that over the past few weeks the stock market had been going up, unemployment had been the lowest in six years and gas prices had been on the way down. By most objective measures, the USA has been doing well, but a majority of Americans indicated that Obama was on the wrong track. As pointed out by CNN, the Democrats got beat in blue and red states, across the country from Massachusetts to Nevada. Five red states voted to increase the minimum wage, a major Democratic issue since 2012, but at the same time those states voted overwhelmingly for Republican candidates who stand against minimum wage increases.
It would be important to note another significant aspect of this mid-term election. It related to advances made by women in the US political scenario. For the first time ever, the number of women in the new Congress has crossed the magical three figures. This happened with Democrat Alma Adams's victory in a special election for North Carolina's 12th District. There were other landmark successful female candidates. One was Republican Joni Ernst who became the first lady to be elected statewide to represent Iowa and the first female combat veteran elected to the Senate. Shelley Moore Capito achieved the distinction of becoming West Virginia's first woman Senator. Similarly, Elise Stefanik of New York became the youngest lady to be elected to Congress and Saira Blair, 18, became the youngest US State legislator. Gina Raimondo had the honour of being Rhode Island's first female Governor. All this came despite the fact that the mid-term electorate, as political analyst Norm Ornstein told the BBC, was, "older, whiter, maler" than in presidential election years.
The victory for the Republicans came on the back of a wave of discontent expressed by voters on the campaign trail - unhappy with an economic recovery they fail to feel the benefits of, and frustrated by political gridlock in Congress, which has already reached historic levels.
Some analysts with Democratic persuasion have been busy in pointing out that losing the House and the Senate in the sixth year of the Obama Presidency does not mean that the incumbent legacy is done for. They are basing their assumptions on the fact that the approval rating for the Congress activities within the general population in the USA has been less than 15 per cent for the last two years. This probably explains why President Obama was almost buoyant during his autopsy press conference on November 05 afternoon, much more so than his last midterm in 2010. Others, with a more realistic appreciation of the political mainstream scenario prevailing within the United States have, however, been stating otherwise.
Nevertheless, both sides of the divide agree that there are certain important issues that will require the undivided attention of Obama despite the possibility of gridlock at every step. The following merit mention:
(a) Immigration: Necessary reforms with regard to this aspect have been part of the holy grail of US politics for the last two decades. This has been so because of the importance that voters with a Hispanic background are expected to play in the context of one party or another for the next 20 years. Immigration policy has become both a serious domestic and national security issue that has faced obstruction from vehement Tea Partiers within the US political paradigm. It would be interesting to see how the President intends to overcome the existing challenges within this matrix. He may plan to undertake immigration reform by executive order. This will create its own dynamics. It will then, as an analyst put it in the CNN, "either force the Republicans to offer and pass a cohesive counter-bill, or simply let Obama handle the policy and move on".
(b) Minimum wage: This assumes importance because during the midterm elections of 2014 the Republican candidates generally opposed the idea of increasing the minimum wage. However, in the red states where they were elected, the swing of the vote favoured increasing the minimum wage. Consequently, it is being suggested by Democratic analysts that, 'right now, before Republicans take over the Senate, the President should make a push to pass a minimum wage increase once again'. It is being felt that such a move, while advancing the Democratic cause, would save embarrassment for the Republicans. If Congress passes a minimum wage bill before the new Congress starts in January, 'freshmen Republicans won't be in the unenviable position of fighting against a policy overwhelmingly passed in their home states'.
(c) Civil rights: President Obama knows that he is under scrutiny with regard to his nominations and appointments at various levels in the Judiciary. In this context, he will need to move swiftly with regard to his appellate appointments in the next few months. It needs to be remembered here that the Republican Party has refused to vote on, or rejected most of his proposed appointments in recent times. Political analysts are convinced that Obama will try to balance the situation in the coming two years by implicitly hinting that he might veto the vast majority of the bills the new Senate will send him unless they go along with his judicial appointments and end the confirmation logjam of appointments that he has already made. Such a shadowy deal could then include the possibility of the President offering concessions on the number and types of bills from the GOP that he might otherwise veto.
(d) Foreign policy: The biggest challenge for the remainder of President Obama's term is likely to be in the parameter of foreign policy. This will include nuclear negotiations with Iran, sanctions on Russia over Ukraine and the evolution of the strategic problem created by ISIL in Iraq and Syria. Analysts have specifically identified Senators like Bob Corker (R-Tennessee), and John McCain (R-Arizona) and have mentioned that they might try to particularly challenge President Obama in this arena. These analysts quite correctly have advised that the way out lay in Obama being tactful and not 'bickering with the opposition'. It is being hoped that a final deal could be made with Iran within the umbrella of the U.N. Security Council. This could then be signed, sealed and delivered by the November 24 deadline 'if the President acts fast enough'. This measure would also foreclose the possibility of further tougher sanctions bills against Iran coming out of the US Congress in 2015.
It is being mentioned in this regard that Obama has already decided to pre-empt Senator McCain's possible call for boots on the ground to fight ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant), by deciding to dispatch 1500 US armed forces 'advisers' to Iraq. He has also decided to seek more funding for the expected fight against ISIL. This is being interpreted by strategists as Obama's effort to show ahead of 2016 that the Democrats are not as soft as the Republicans are making them out to be.
It has been reported that the US Senate's new Republican leader and President Barack Obama have both promised to end the political gridlock that has so frustrated American voters. Republicans made historic gains in the mid-term elections and now control both legislative chambers but they as well as the Democrats are aware that the general public is frustrated. It was therefore no surprise that incoming Senate leader Mitch McConnell said that he would make the ineffective Senate function and pass bills. Mr Obama has also said that he was "eager to work with the new Congress to make the next two years as productive as possible".
Cooperation between the two sides will be watched carefully by the rest of the world. This will be essential if issues like tackling climate change and limiting carbon emissions have to be resolved. Similarly, human rights activists as well as their opponents will be carefully monitoring what steps will be taken to shutting down the Guantanamo Bay prison in Cuba through legislative action. It needs to be noted that Republicans and Democrats alike on Capitol Hill are wary of signing off on a law that would permit Obama to transfer detainees from the facility to the United States. Without Congress' approval, Obama would have to use his own executive authority to push through a change, a move that would undoubtedly prompt cries of overreach by lawmakers. It would, however, fulfill a promise that extends back to Obama's first campaign for presidency.
It will take time to find out whether McConnell will have adequate space from conservatives within his party who prefer a strategy of confrontation. Obama, meanwhile, will also have to consider how he can safeguard his own political legacy of healthcare reform, Wall Street overhaul and an uneven economic recovery. It will not be an easy ride for either Democrats or Republicans leading up to 2016.
The writer, a former Ambassador, is an analyst, specialised in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance.
mzamir@dhaka.net
© 2026 - All Rights with The Financial Express
