The Biblical Armageddon between good and evil was set to take place on 7 April, the deadline set for Iran to acquiesce to Donald Trump's peremptory directive to open the Strait of Hormuz. His profanity-laden message on social media, replete with four-letter word and swearing in good measure, issued on Holy Easter Sunday has been of a piece with his previous imperial posturing and verbal antics since the beginning the of the war. But this time his ranting has surpassed all previous records of indecency and lack of decorum, not to speak of becoming a diplomatic faux pas. His profane words that have shocked the world, have revealed not only the worst flaw in his character as a leader but is also indicative of the dark side of American psyche. It is significant that so far no joint statement has been made by American politicians, intellectuals and leaders of finance and industry. Such a broad qualation was expected at this juncture because it is not only Iran but the whole world's interests are at stake. Equally disappointing is the silence of America's allies who have been publicly humiliated by Trump more than once for not toeing his line in respect of the illegal war. Apart from saying 'this is not our war', they have done little by way of discouraging Tramp's misadventures that imperil the whole world. The routine manner in which they condemn Iran's attack on Gulf countries while keeping silent about America-Israeli illegal war betray their double standard in applying international law. They don't understand that it is their silence on America's violation of international law that has enhanced the arrogance and hubris of the modern day cowboy of the wild west, Donald Trump.
THE END GAME: After four weeks of intense hostilities, the possible outcomes can now be adumbrated. But before outlining that the strategic objectives of the war as perceived by the warring parties should be recapitulated. Even the hardliner critics would concede that for Iran it is a defensive war. At no stage before hostilities broke out did Iran show any signs of belligerence. America and Israel, on the other hand, have proved that they don't set great store by diplomatic negotiations. If they did, there would be no 12-day war in 2025 and four weeks war now.
The 12-day war had a narrow objective for Israel and America, viz the obliteration of Iran's nuclear capability. This goal was more or less achieved as bunker buster bombs succeeded in destroying the nuclear research facilities in Iran. Only the fate of the enriched uranium stockpile remained uncertain. Assuming that it was left intact, Iran would require five to seven years to resume enrichment because of the near total destruction of their nuclear research facilities. So there was no emergency situation demanding a more fierce attack on Iran by America now.
The war against Iran was imperative for Israel as it reprised the old template for its strategy in middle-east viz regime change. For Israel, nurturing the dream of a greater Israel, having a powerful country, a Muslim one to boot, in its vicinity is an anathema. Slowly but steadily, it worked for the disintegration of Libya, Syria and Iraq and succeeded in decimating them. Only Iran remained unscathed and in Israel's cross-hairs. As in the case of the three Arab countries, Israel needed participation of America in a war against Iran. But successive American presidents like Barrack Obama and Joseph Biden refused to be taken to the garden path by Israel. With Donald Trump in White House for the second term, Benjamin Netanyahu saw that the chance of his wish fulfilment had come. In the first year of his second tenure in office, Donald Trump nodded to Netanyahu's plan for pre-emptive attack on Iran in June 2025 ,targeting its top military commanders, nuclear scientists and air defence systems even while bilateral negotiation was going on between America and Iran. That this was premeditated by America was proved when in the wake of Israeli attacks its stealth bombers dropped bunker buster bombs on the site of the nuclear facility. This was an act of war and America had made no such declaration in public. After the bombing Donald Trump gloated in public that the nuclear potential of Iran had been obliterated. But for Israel the 12-day war was an eye opener. It showed Iran's capacity to hit Israel with advanced ballistic missiles with deathly precision supported by legions of Shahed drones. To destroy the military capacity of Iran it plotted to bring down the Islamic regime by fomenting popular unrest on a massive scale. Tapping into economic and political discontents of different sections of Iranian society its sleeper cells and agents poured money to finance a nationwide anti-government demonstration that began in late December, 2025 and ended in early January this year. The uprising was cheered on by Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump, the latter assuring that 'help' was coming. The Trump administration, flush with its recent kidnapping operation in Venezuela, started mobilising American striking force in the Mediterranean in a show of strength to unnerve the Iranian regime. But by that time the government of the Islamic Republic had reasserted its authority in the country, putting down the civil unrest with a high hand. The historic popular upheaval was the brainchild of American and Israeli strategists. Regime change would achieve all the goals they had in mind for a subservient Iran viz zero uranium enrichment, nominal ballistic missile production and no strategic outreach with foreign armed groups. What devastating targeted bombings could not do, regime change would at one fell swoop, they hoped.
The failure of the December-January uprising appears to have made Trump administration more determined on bringing about a regime change in Iran. Its negotiation with Iran was a ploy to mobilise the naval strike force near Iran. When ready, America launched the pre- emptive strike together with Israel. That the focus of the undeclared war was regime change became evident by the assassination of the head of the state and a number of political figures. This is the first time in the history of wars that the head of state of a country has been killed as part of a deliberate plan. The lawlessness and barbarity involved in this act is mindboggling. Shocked and surprised beyond belief, America's allies distanced themselves saying in unison 'it is not our war.' This has not deterred the warmongering cabinet of Donald Trump from continuing to pummel Iran with bombs ranging from 900 kg GBU- 31 to bunker buster GBU -28 weighing 14000 kg.
Facing an asymmetric war, Iran has been forced to use both conventional weapons and economic ones. This strategy has not only made it undefeatable so far but has also hurt America (and the rest of the world) economically. Enraged like a caged animal, Donald Trump has now gone berserk, spewing expletives like a garden variety gangster. He has threatened to bomb Iran to stone age if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened to normal traffic by this Tuesday evening (April 7).
If the behind the scene diplomatic efforts failed Donald Trump would most likely to start bombing power plants and bridges as announced in his profanity-laden Easter message. Undaunted, Iran has said it would reciprocate. So, a prolonged war of attrition is the most likely scenario. Increasingly, Iran, Israel and the Gulf states will be reduced to rubbles and death toll will raise, Americans not excepted. Economic recession will slide into global depression. Iran being an ideological country can put up with this doomsday scenario. But America cannot, not when a mid-term election is looming. [Trump, however, on late Tuesday announced that he has agreed to a proposal for a two-week ceasefire with Iran, stepping back from his earlier threats of potentially devastating strikes that he had warned could result in the death of a "whole civilization." The abrupt pivot came just two hours before an 8 pm deadline he imposed for Iran to meet a set of demands cantered on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan mediated the ceasefire and two parities also agreed to start talks in Islamabad on Friday. ]
In all probability, Donald Trump is bluffing about bombing Iran into stone age. By not bending its knees before the international bully, Iran has called the bluff. It has enough arsenals to continue the defensive war for months. Regime change in Iran will not be a cakewalk for America and Israel. They underestimated the political and military strength of the Islamic Republic. Most importantly, they ignored the indomitable spirit of a people committed to an ideology that makes death an honour.
Shorn of its allies, Donald Trump's America finds itself isolated and exposed to accusations of war crimes. In the face of an escalating war it will find the gung-ho spirit melting away. Even an incorrigible bully sooner or later realises his comeuppance is nigh.
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